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An updated energy and climate policies Updated policies Energy security Environment pollution Climate change Industrial structure adjustment Energy conservation & efficiency Energy structure optimizing Forest carbon sink increasing
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Policy questions to be addressed and structures of IMACLIM-CHINA
Wang YuInstitute of Energy, Environment and Economy
Tsinghua University29 January 2015
• Updated energy and climate polices
• Policies questions to be addressed
• Structure of IMACLIM-CHINA
2
An updated energy and climate policies
Updated policies
Energy security
Environment pollution
Climate change
Industrial structure
adjustment
Energy conservation & efficiency
Energy structure
optimizing
Forest carbon sink
increasing
China’s Economic Growth & Energy Consumption
1991~1995 1996~2000 2001~2005 2006~2010 2011~2013
GDP annual growth 11.9% 8.7% 9.9% 11.3% 8.2%
Energy consumption increase 5.9% 2.1% 10.3% 6.6% 4.9%
1991
1992
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100
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Decouple of energy consumption and economic growth
Energy consumption (1990=100)
GDP (1990=100)
Environmental pollution in China
PM2.5 concentration of 28th Nov, 2014
Water resourcesLand resourcesEcological……Air pollution!
Climate change, pressure from international community
• China is the biggest CO2 emitter of the world.• Coal dominated energy system results in higher CO2 emission.
Data source: IEA & China Statistic Yearbook 201419
7119
7419
7719
8019
8319
8619
8919
9219
9519
9820
0120
0420
0720
100
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CO2 emission in China (million ton)
26.7% of total global CO2 emission
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Energy structure
An update energy and climate policies
Updated policies
Energy security
Environment pollution
Climate change
Industrial structure
adjustment
Energy conservation & efficiency
Energy structure
optimizing
Forest carbon sink
increasing
Industrial structure adjustment
Closedown
• Small mine• Small coal-fired
power plants• Backward
production capacity (19 sectors, including steel, iron, flat glass, cement, coke…)
New industries
• Low carbon technology innovation• 106 million RMB• 54 pilot projects
• New energy vehicles• New energy
manufacturers• Producer service
industry
The share of industry increase 1% → 600 million ton of additional CO2 emission
The share of service increase 1% → 300 million ton of CO2 mitigation
Energy conservation and efficiency improving
Management & evaluation
Objective responsibility system – provincial governmentsEnergy audit system – new projects in heavy energy consumption, building
Energy conservation projects
energy - saving technical renovation ——2.56 billion RMB in 2013; 5.6 million tce conservationEnergy performance contracting ——280 million RMB; 1.16 million tce
Energy standards
48 energy conservation standards were issued in 2013
Promoting energy-saving technologies and products
State Key Energy-Efficient Technology Promotion CataloguesEnergy saving and low-carbon technologies to promote the achievements list released
Energy intensity decreased by 9% in 2013 compared with 2010
350 million tce coal conservation
840 million ton of CO2 mitigation
Energy conservation and efficiency improving
Intensity target
• The energy intensity of GDP decrease 40~45% in 2020 compared with 2005 level
Absolute target (2020)
• Total primary energy consumption <4.8 billion tce
• Total coal consumption <4.2 billion ton
• Annual growth rate of energy consumption <3.5%
Energy structure optimizing
Coal consumption control
• Scale: 600 or 1000 MW ultra supercritical coal combustion technologies• Efficiency: coal consumption < 300 gce/kWh• Emission: smoke, SO2, NOX emission concentration less than 10, 35, 50
μg/m3 in eastern provinces
New entries
• Closedown backward efficiency turbines ( < 50 MW)• Closedown turbines whose pollutants emission can’t meet environmental
standards• Phase out 100 GW of backward efficient turbines by 2020
Current plants
Targets by 2020: The share of coal in primary energy < 62%More than 60% of coal used for electricity
generation
China-U.S. Joint Announcement on Climate Change
• China intends to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak early– The roadmap to achieving the peaking of CO2 emissions?– The CO2 emissions level of peaking?– The effects of transform from BAU to low carbon development
mode?• China intends to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in
primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030– Renewable energy development potential and cost?– Cost increase/decrease of the whole energy system?– The contribution of non-fossil energy to CO2 mitigation?
Comp
arison
s of
Centr
al
Gover
nment
Target
s and
the
Actual
Capa
city
Growt
h of
RE
Objectives – Industrial competitiveness
Would the climate policy increase the industrial production cost? Weaken the industrial competitiveness? Domestic context: carbon tax / ETS …… International context: global carbon market
Which industry would suffer the most transition cost? GDP loss? Energy intensive industry? Industrial structure ?
Would that be a chance for China’s low-carbon development? Transition cost? Industrial structure optimization? Import and export trade?
Objectives – Distribution effect & Welfare effect
How the climate policies would affect the residence’s welfare? Carbon tax / ETS …… Domestic context International context
Which group of residence would be most heavily affected? Income levels Income gap Differentiated carbon tax
Would the climate policy optimize energy consumption structure through changing residence life style? Purchase choices Transportation modes
Thanks!
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