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Polish Nuclear Power ProgramŁukasz KUŹNIARSKI
expertNuclear Energy Department, Ministry of Economy
POLAND
Poland is surrounded by NPPs up to 300 km from state borders
Polish Nuclear Power Program2
• 23 reactors operating• 6 reactors under construction• 9 reactors planned up to 2025
In 2020 Poland will be entirelysurrounded by NPPs.
From 2024 the only neighbour country with no NPP will be Germany. However, Germany will be importing significant amount of nuclear electricity from France, Sweden, Czech Republic, Switzerland and Poland.
PolandGermany
RussiaSweden
Ukraine
ItalyRomania
Bulgaria
Norway
Polish Nuclear Power Program
Rationale to introduce nuclear power in Poland:1. assuring long-term security of electricity supply2. maintaining electricity prices at levels acceptable by the national
economy and the society3. reducing emission of SO2, NOX (air pollutants), and CO2 (GHG)
Polish Nuclear Power Program3
Legal framework of the Nuclear Power Program
• Resolution no. 4/2009 of the Council of the Ministers of 13 January 2009 on nuclear power development activities
• Ordinance of the Council of Ministers of 12 May 2009 on establishing Government Commissioner for Nuclear Power in Poland
• Resolution of the Council of Ministers of 11 August 2009 on „Framework time schedule for nuclear power activities”
• National Energy Policy up to 2030 – approved by the Council of Ministers in November 2009
• Law of May 13th, 2011 on amendment of Atomic Law and other laws -entered into force on 2011.07.01
• Law of June 29th, 2011 on preparation and realization of Investments in nuclear facilities and accompanying investments - entered into force on 2011.07.01
• Polish Nuclear Power Program – approved by the Council of Ministers on 28th of January 2014.
Polish Nuclear Power Program4
5
Status of implementation of the PNPP
PNPP phases:
• Phase I – 01/01/2014 - 31/12/2016: site selection, call for tender for the reactor technology, technology selection
• Phase II – 01/01/2017 - 12/31/2018: drafting of blueprints and obtaining all required regulatory approvals
• Phase III – 01/01/2019 - 12/31/2024: building permit and construction of the 1st reactor of the first nuclear power plant, starting construction of the 2nd reactor
• Phase IV – 01/01/2025 - 12/31/2030: completion of the first nuclear power plant (2-3 units), beginning of construction of a second nuclear power plant. The PNPP envisages 6,000 MWe (i.e. 2 NPPs with 2-3 units each) in nuclear until 2035.
Polish Nuclear Power Program
According to study made by EMA in June 2013 the final electricity consumption in Poland will increase by 36% in 2030 which is 1.5% on a year-by-year basis.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.020
1020
1120
1220
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1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
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30
[TW
h]
Prognoza'2013 Prognoza'2011
6
Update of forecast for electricity demand until 2030
Source: Update of forecast of fuels and energy demand, EMA, June 2013
Polish Nuclear Power Program
Total electricity production currently is ca. 160 TWh/y.
Source: Update of forecast of fuel and electricity demand until 2030, ARE S.A., June 2013
Demand for electricity in Poland will grow
7
Households
Agriculture
Industry and construction
Trade and services
Transport
Update of forecast of final electricity demand[TWh]
Households
Trade and services
Industry and construction
AgricultureTransport
Polish Nuclear Power Program
EU ambitions regarding climate change – a challenge for Poland
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020 Package(binding)
2030 Framework forclimate and energy
(proposed)
2050 Roadmap tolow-carbon economy
(proposed)
CO2 obligatory reductionCO2 emissions allowed
8 Polish Nuclear Power Program
McKinsey`s curve of GHG reduction costs for Poland up to 2030
9
nuclear powernuclear power
wind on-shorewind on-shore
coal with CCScoal with CCS
Emission reduction costs EUR/t CO2e
Emission reduction costs EUR/t CO2e
Assumed price CO2: EUR 10 per tonneAssumed price CO2: EUR 10 per tonne
Polish Nuclear Power Program
Age Structure of the Existing Power Plants in Poland
Polish Nuclear Power Program10
up to 5 years7%
6-10 years6%
11-15 years7%
16-20 years5%
21-25 years5%
26-30 years15%
over 30 years55%
Out of 39 GWe of current capacity ca. 6 GWe will be written off before 2020 and a further 9GWe will be shutdown before 2030. This is 38%. Nuclear power plants can replace it to some extent.
Emissions of main air pollutants by the electricity generation sector in Poland (2012)
Pollutant PM SO2 NOX CO Cd Pb Hg CH4 CO2
Amount (tons)
17 454
366 634
216 960
39 911 84 1 694 2 512 4 255147 338
000
Trend 2008-2012
11
source: Emitor 2012, Energy Market Agency (ARE S.A.)
credit: Leszek Kozłowski, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
Polish Nuclear Power Program
Comparison of averaged electricity generation costs for technologies foreseen to implement in PL from 2025
Polish Nuclear Power Program12
Source: Update of study of electricity generation costs with nuclear, coal, gas power plants and RES, EMA, April 2013
Assumed discount rate: 6%Nuclear investment cost: €4,000,000/MWe
21.2 23.340.5
6.531.1 32.9
14.830.8 37.1 27.6
53.364.5
122.8
9.4 10.1
14.4
5.5
13.7 14.3
6.2
14.815.2
17
20.2
30.1
23.3
33.7 23.4
9.5 94.643.1 30.3
65.235.3
41.980.5
25.3 31
16.5
3.24
11.4 26.5 3.16.37.9
6.2
7.6
6.5
11.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Hard
Coa
l
Lign
ite
Nuc
lear
(gen
III)
Nat
ural
gas
Hard
Coa
l + C
CS
Lign
ite +
CCS
GTCC
IGCC
_C
IGCC
_C+C
CS
Biom
ass
Win
d on
shor
e
Win
d of
fsho
re PV
Capital costs O&M Fuel CO2 CO2 transport and storage Costs of backup capacity Costs of power balancing
EUR`2012/MWh
87,8
64,4
123,1
97,5 89,4 97,6107,4 103,5
125,1
83,6
103,6
159,9
89,7
Electricity generation structure in 2030
13
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
170.0
180.0
190.0
200.0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
TWh
Fotowoltaika
EL_geotermalne
EL_Wiatr_Morze
EL_Wiatr_Ląd
EC_Biogaz
EL i EC_Biomasa
EC_Gaz
EC_WK_Nowe
EC_WK_Stare
EC_Przemysłowe
EL_Wodne
EL_Jądrowe
EL_WK_Nowe
EL_WK_Stare
EL_WB_Nowe
EL_WB_Stare
Lignite (old)
Hard coal (old)
Nuclear
Lignite (new)
Hard coal (new)
HydroAutoproducers CHP
Hard coal CHP (old)
Hard coal CHP (new)Gas CHP (new)
Biomass
Wind onshoreWind offshore
Photovoltaic
Biogas
Source: Update of study of electricity generation costs with nuclear, coal, gas power plants and RES, EMA, April 2013
Polish Nuclear Power Program
14
Hard coal52%Lignite
32%
RES11%
Natural gas3%
Oil2%
2012
Hard coal30%
Lignite23%
Nuclear19%
RES20%
Natural gas7%
Oil1% 2030
Electricity generation structure (energy mix)
Source: Update of forecast of fuels and energy demand, EMA, June 2013
Polish Nuclear Power Program
Three candidate sites for the first NPP location identified
• On 25th of November 2011 PGE announced three candidate sites (in alphabetical order: Choczewo, Gąski, Żarnowiec)
• PGE and MoE continue information and communication campaign in all three locations and neighbouring areas
• Financing & Investment analyses on-going by PGE• Letter of intent was signed between PGE, ENEA,TAURON, KGHM to set up joint
company which could be future operator and licensee. • Site Characterization contractor was selected in January 2013
Polish Nuclear Power Program15
Pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/500-507 Warsaw
tel +48 22 693 50 00fax +48 22 693 40 46
email mg@mg.gov.plweb www.mg.gov.pl
Ministry of Economy
Thank you for your attention
Nuclear Energy Department
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