Population would have been 440 million in 1991 without wars

Urban Geography andUrban Geography andSpatial DemographicsSpatial Demographics

Zoltan Grossman, Blood & Borders, The Evergreen State CollegeZoltan Grossman, Blood & Borders, The Evergreen State College

USSR PopulationUSSR Population(Lost 15 mil to civil war/Stalin and 14 mil to WWII;

Male shortage one reason for women in both workforce & home)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1939 1950 1991

Millions

Population would have been 440 million in 1991 without wars

DespiteAnnexations!

““State Socialism”State Socialism” • Central planning of “Command Economy”

• Guaranteed job, low rents, health care, daycare, etc.

• Heavy industrialization to catch up to West

• Forced collectivization of private farmlands

Soviet Bloc urban populationSoviet Bloc urban population• Soviets favored large industry over farms & cities

– Moscow 30% industrial; Paris only 5%

• Urbanization but without urban services/transit/life

• Prefab worker apartment blocs / housing shortages

Russian urban populationRussian urban populationOverwhelmingly in largest cities

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1917 1939 1959 1989

Percentage ofpopulation in cities

““Shock therapy”Shock therapy” • Close command industries

• Reduce or end subsidies

• Pass burden to renters

• Privatize industrial economy; benefit new entrepeneurs

• High unemployment, inflation, inequality

• Hub regions - Government/transportation centers. High-tech industries- Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kiev, Nizhny Novgorod, Urals

• Gateway regions- Outward looking/ trade-oriented- Vladivostok, Murmansk, Kaliningrad

Winning regionsWinning regions

• Command military-industrial / coal regions

• State agricultural regions

• Remote natural resource (non-oil)

• Ethnic minority regions in conflict

Losing regionsLosing regions Huge gaps in prices, income, roads

Favorable regions of RussiaFavorable regions of Russia

Unfavorable regions of RussiaUnfavorable regions of Russia

Russia’s demographics, 1990-2006Russia’s demographics, 1990-2006

Male Female

Effects of war, poor male health

Russian birth rateRussian birth rate

02468

1012141618

1985 1991 1996

Birth rate per 1000

Russian death rateRussian death rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1985 1994 1996

Death rate per 1000

U.S. Baby BoomU.S. Baby Boom USSR instead had “echo busts” slowing growth in 1960s, 1980s

Baby Bust (1965-1980)

Baby Boom (1946-1964)

EchoBoom

Russian life expectancyRussian life expectancyMen dying from alcohol, drugs, accidents, crime;

Male life expectancy now like parts of Third World

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1986 1995

MaleFemale

Russia’s population declinePopulation decline for first time since WWII;

Worries about aging population, labor shortages;Larger families in Muslim regions but not as many industrial workers

Feudal City

Narrow, Twisty Medieval Streets

Vienna, Austria

URBAN GEOGRAPHY:Trade City

• Merchant capitalism emerges 1400s-1500s;

Gradually replaces feudalism

• Mediterranean Sea ports

• Baltic/North Sea ports (Hanseatic League)

IndustrialRevolution:

Steam engine

Steel

Loom

IndustrialcapitalistCity(1800 on)

Other European city characteristics

Plazas

High density

Low skyline

Lively downtown

Neighborhood stability

Symbolism/memorials

Good municipal services

CentralPlace Theory

Explaining the relativesize /function of urban centers asa function ofeconomic behavior

Range:Maximum distancebuyer will travel

Threshold:Minimum market size

Stagesof

intraurban growthin U.S.

Counterurbanization of wealthy

More than half live in suburbs today

WesternEuropean City

Industrial workers,immigrants in suburbs

CentralEuropean City

Budapest,Hungary

Urban Inequalities under State Socialism(Iván Szelényi, Oxford U. Press, 1983)

Unemployment, 1980-2010

Unemployment, 2002-2010

Depressed regions, 2004

Roma population, 2001

Jobbik vote, 2009

Jobbik / Hungarian Guard