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Driving EV Policy & Charging Infrastructure 6 & 7 November 2012 South Africa
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NETWORK READINESS: IMPACT OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES ON LONG RANGE DEMAND FORECASTS OF DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS
Gustav Brand
Nov 2012
DRIVING EV POLICY & CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURE INSOUTH AFRICA
Introduction
Plug-in Electric Vehicles
Developing a PEV distribution load forecast
Some results from an eThekwini case study
PEV Market
Market adoption of PEVs
Market Drivers• Operating & maintenance cost• Source to consumption delivery cost• Imported oil dependency• Government incentives• Improvements in power electronics• Air pollution and perceived greenhouse gas reduction
Electricity Supply Market
Potential Constraining factors• Constrained generation & transmission capacity• Escalating energy cost• Constrained distribution capacity• Aging distribution infrastructure
Long range load forecasts – why?
Master plans• Network built today must serve customers
30-50 years into the future.• Matching equipment to supply saturation load allows
for optimum use of capital.
Penalty for getting it wrong• Underestimates result in reliability problems &
additional capital required to replace undersized infrastructure.
• Overestimates result in poor IRR and lead to unnecessary tariff increase to fund build programme.
2 5 15 20
Distribution
Sub-transmission
Transmission
Generation
Ser
vice
Are
a S
ize
Project Lead Time
TimingInfrastructure Planning Horizon
Case Study Objective
• Develop a PEV forecast model
• Utilise existing long range forecast
• Superimpose PEV load contribution on existing forecast
• Assess impact on existing + planned network
PEV Forecast Model – Residential charging
• PEV market penetration - % of population• Vehicle efficiency – kWh/km• Current and future battery charge capacity• Distance travelled – km/day• Charging
• Consumer charging behaviour• Charger & battery efficiencies• Charger PF• Charging tempo
PEV Market Penetration
Source: EPRI
Energy densities for various battery chemistries
Wh/kg
Wh/
lSmaller
Lighter100 200 300 400 500 600
700
800
900
100
200
300
400
500
600
Lead-Acid
Ni-Cd Li-Titanate
Ni-MH
Li-ion
Li-PolymerLi-Metal
Zn/Air
Li-P,Li-ionNew Systems
Emerging Technologies
Established Technologies
LFP
Source: ICCNexergy
Battery Energy Density
0
100
200
300
400
500
60020
10
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Whr/kg
PEV Utilisation BehaviourInfluenced by battery capacity
Travel distance distribution density 2010
Travel distance distribution density 2030
Home Arrival Times
Uncontrolled Charging
Forecast Results: Uncontrolled Charging
20 Year Load Forecast(total network load)
2029 Load Profile(total network load)
Forecast Results: Time of Use Charging
20 Year Load Forecast(total network load)
2029 Load Profile(total network load)
Impact on Distribution Substations
Voltage
Number of substations
Firm capacity exceeded
EPRI Medium
EPRI High
275kV 8 1 1
132kV 100 7 22
33kV 45 0 0
Total 153 8 23
Impact on MV Network: Uncontrolled Charging
20 Year Load Forecast(total network load)
2029 Load Profile(total network load)
Feeder capacity
Impact on MV Network: ToU Charging
• ToU charging has insignificant effect on total network load
• ToU charging at MV level can be devastating
20 Year Load Forecast(total network load)
Feeder capacity
Controlled Charging
Other things to worry about
• Clustering• Market penetration saturation• Filling stations -> charging stations• Workplace charging• Regeneration
Conclusion (based on this case study)
Total distribution network level• No cause for concern over the next 10 years• ToU charging appears to restrain capacity requirements
at total distribution load level
Substations• PEV impact over 20 years seems negotiable at
substation level• Provided that the utility has a master plan in place (and
executes it)
Point of supply• Load control, smart meters, smart tariffs
Conclusion (based on this case study)
Importance of having a long range master plan (and executing it)
Long range load forecasts•must model PEV scenario(s)•new stakeholders in automotive industry
• Electricity distributors• Eskom EV Care
•new stakeholders in electricity distribution• PEV industry• PEV consumers
Thanks to eThekwini Electricityfor sharing their long range forecastand data in support of this case study.
Eskom EV CareDr Clinton Carter-BrownCorporate SpecialistPower DeliveryEskom TechnologyTel : +27 11 655 2472 cartercg@eskom.co.za
Amal KhatriChief Advisor: Research & OperationsEskomTel +27 11 629 5170KhatriA@eskom.co.za
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