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presented by
David L. Patton, P.E.
Current Trends in Renewable Energy:Current Trends in Renewable Energy:
R. W. Beck, Inc.
IPED COAL POWER CONFERENCE
January 18-19, 2007 St. Petersburg, FL
Tangible and Intangible BenefitsTangible and Intangible Benefits
Which Renewable Candidates are Realistic Now?Which Renewable Candidates are Realistic Now?
Wind Biomass Fuel Cells Geothermal Hydro Ocean (Tidal, OTEC) Solar (PV, Thermal)
Renewable Energy Capacity Trend,1999 - 2006Renewable Energy Capacity Trend,1999 - 2006
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass (Total)
Wood/Wood Waste
MSW/Landfill Gas
Other Biomass
Source: U.S. DOE EIA, August 2005YearYear
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity,
MW
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity,
MW
00
20002000
40004000
60006000
80008000
10,00010,000
12,00012,000
20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006
14,00014,000
U.S. Renewable Electric Generating Capacity 2005U.S. Renewable Electric Generating Capacity 2005
Nuclear8%
Renewables6%
Solar1%
Wind2%
Geothermal5%
Conventional Hydroelectric
46%
Biomass46%
Petroleum Fuels40%
Natural Gas23%
Coal23%
Source: U.S. DOE EIA, January 2007
Wind Energy – Tangible BenefitsWind Energy – Tangible Benefits
No Fuel Price Uncertainty
No Fuel Cost
Low Operating Cost
Relatively Less Complex
Mature Wind Turbine Technologies
Addresses Environmental Issues
Lease Payments Support Family Farms
Government Financial Incentives & Grants
U.S. Annual Average Wind Resources MapU.S. Annual Average Wind Resources Map
Source: NREL
U.S. Annual Wind GeneratingCapacity: Installed and ProjectedU.S. Annual Wind GeneratingCapacity: Installed and Projected
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
MW
Inst
alle
d D
uri
ng
Yea
r
Source: U.S. DOE Wind Energy Program and AWEA
2007 (projected)
3250
3500
Biomass Energy – Tangible BenefitsBiomass Energy – Tangible Benefits
Lower Fuel Costs
Addresses Environmental Issues
Domestic Sources
Local Economic Benefits
Mature Biomass/Biogas Process Technologies
Government Financial Incentives & Grants
Biomass Resource AvailabilityBiomass Resource Availability
Biomass Fuel for Generation is Widespread Within Most States
States with Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) / Goals
MA, CT, RI, NJ, DE, MD, DC
Source: NREL and PEW Center, Global Climate Change
States with Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) / GoalsStates with Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) / Goals
Source: NREL and PEW Center, Global Climate Change
Intangible Benefits – All RenewablesIntangible Benefits – All Renewables
Positive Public Image
Desire for Diversified Portfolio
Public Support/Perception
Political Support
Greenhouse Gas Drivers
Energy Independence / Security
Offset Emissions from “Dirtier” Energy Sources
RPS Goals vs. Renewable StatusRPS Goals vs. Renewable Status
RPS Year
RPS / Goal*
Arizona 2025 15%
California 2010 20%
Colorado 2015 10%
Connecticut 2010 10%
Delaware 2019 10%
District of Columbia 2022 11%
Hawaii 2020 20%
Illinois* 2013 8%
Iowa 2007 105 MW
Maine 2000 30%
Maryland 2019 7.5%
Massachusetts 2009 4.0%
Source: U.S. DOE EIA & PEW Central Global Climate Change, December 2006
* As a percent of state generation or actual generation / use.
RPS Year
RPS / Goal*
Minnesota 2015 10%
Montana 2015 15%
Nevada 2015 20%
New Jersey 2021 22.5%
New Mexico 2011 10%
New York 2013 24%
Pennsylvania 2020 18%
Rhode Island 2020 15%
Texas 2015 5,880 MW
Vermont 2012 10%
Washington 2020 15%
Wisconsin 2015 10%
SummarySummary
Realistic Renewable Candidates
Renewable Energy Capacity Trends
Recent Renewable Capacity
Wind Energy – Tangible Benefits
Biomass Energy – Tangible Benefits
Intangible Benefits – All Renewables
RPS Goals
Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2030 (billion kilowatt hours) Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2030 (billion kilowatt hours)
00
10001000
20002000
30003000
40004000
19801980 19901990 20052005 20202020 20302030
NuclearNuclear
RenewablesRenewables
CoalCoal
Natural GasNatural Gas
PetroleumPetroleum
History Projections
Source: U.S. DOE EIA
ConclusionsConclusions
Biomass and Wind are Currently the Most Commercially Realistic Renewables
25,000 to 50,000 Megawatts New Renewable Energy Capacity Nationwide in Next Decade
Policy Consistency and Continuity
QuestionsQuestions
David L. Patton, P.E.R. W. Beck, Inc.
dpatton@rwbeck.com
(508) 935-1811
David L. Patton, P.E.R. W. Beck, Inc.
dpatton@rwbeck.com
(508) 935-1811
IPED COAL POWER CONFERENCE
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