Prices and Prospects for Global Food Security

Prices and Prospects for Global Food

SecurityKeith Wiebe

International Food Policy Research Institute

USDA Agricultural Outlook ForumArlington, VA

February 20, 2014

Outline

• Why prices (and incomes) matter• Food security past and present• Food security over the next decade• Food security in the longer term• What can be done?

What is food security?

• 1974 World Food Summit“availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices”

• 1996 World Food Summit“when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”

1974 WFS

1996 WFS

Availability is necessary, but not sufficient

Source: Data from FAO

Food Production

Population

Undernourished

4 dimensions of food security

• availability• global, national, local, household• land, water, inputs, technology, yields

• access• national, local, household, individual• prices, income, wealth

• utilization• individual• clean water, sanitation, health

• stability• variability in any of the above

Photo: Curt Carnemark, World Bank

(March 12 ,2013)

Food security in the United States

Source: USDA ERS (2013)

Source: IFPRI (2013)

IFPRI’s Global Hunger Index

ERS projections for 76 developing countries

Source: FAO (2012)

Number

Percentage

FAO projections of undernourishmentin developing countries

Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)

Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

AgMIP climate scenarios to 2050

Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)

The role of agricultural technologies

• Baseline to 2050, including climate change• Linked crop models and

economic models• Assessed 11

technologies for maize, rice and wheat• Impacts on prices,

yields, risk of hungerSource: IFPRI (2014)

Source: Rosegrant et al., IFPRI (2014)

Price effects of climate change

Source: Rosegrant et al., IFPRI (2014)

Price effects of technologies

Source: Rosegrant et al., IFPRI (2014)

Impacts on Food Security

In sum…

• Prices and incomes matter• Because access matters• Because most hungry people are food producers but net buyers of food• Because the poor spend disproportionately on food

• Food security past and present• Food security over the next decade• Food security in the longer term• What can be done?

• Investment in R&D, extension and education• Policies to facilitate market access and trade• Risk management and social protection

Thanks for your attention

k.wiebe@cigar.org