Primary Elections How do we choose the party’s candidate?

Primary ElectionsPrimary Elections

How do we choose the How do we choose the

party’s candidate?party’s candidate?

Primary Elections

• Each political party must pick ONE person to become the nominee

• Republicans chose among…

Rudy Guiliani

Fred Thompson

John McCain

Mitt Romney

Mike Huckabee

Registered Democrats' choice for nominee for 2008*Clinton39% Obama20% Edwards15% Gore13% Richardson4% Kucinich3% Biden2% Gravel1% Dodd**

Who’s Winning? Latest Polls (October 2007)

Registered Republicans' choice for nominee for 2008*

Giuliani27% F. Thompson26% McCain14% Romney10% Gingrich6% Huckabee4% Tancredo2% Brownback1% Hunter1% Paul1%

2012 ?

VERSUS

Power! • Each state holds primary elections

on different days over 6 months

• Historically:

– Iowa & New Hampshire vote 1st in January

– Last state – June

• Generally winner of each party is determined in first few months

I wanna be first!!!!• Frontloading: moving up primary

election date

• Political parties set dates: Florida & Michigan moved their dates up too early & so votes were NOT counted!

Do the first states hold the most power?

• YES! They set the momentum / trend for the campaign, ppl w/few votes drop out

• NOT ALWAYS! In 2008, D’s couldn’t decide b/w Obama & Clinton and every single primary affected the outcome – winner wasn’t determined until June

Super Tuesday • Tuesday in February in which many states

(approx 20) all vote on same day to have a greater impact on primary outcome

• CA votes on this day

Should all 50 states hold their primary on the same day?

• YES! No one state would determine winner, all states treated equally

• NO! Candidates can focus on small area & connect w/local ppl, gives ppl a chance to see candidates over time / variety of situations / time to “dig up dirt”

Primary Ballots • In primaries, vote for one party ONLY • Ballot only has one party on it

Democratic Presidential Candidates

Pick only one.

Chris Dodd

Joe Biden

Barack Obama

Mike Gravel

Dennis Kucinich

Hillary Clinton

OR

Republican Presidential Candidates

Pick only one.

Sam Brownbeck

John McCain

Fred Thompson

Rudy Guiliani

Mitt Romney

Mike Huckabee

Primary Types • Open Primary:

–Vote for any party you want –Adv:–Dis:

• Closed Primary–Vote only for the party you registered with –Adv–Dis

Should all states use the closed primary?

National Convention • Late summer

• Each state sends a group, called a delegation, to their parties’ National Convention

1.Official nominee

2.Platform determined • Each delegation is now forced to vote

for the person who won the primary in that state (1968) = Direct Primary

• Superdelegates – party members, usually elected officials who can vote according to their own opinion (D’s only!)–Many worried that the D nominee

would NOT be chosen by the voters but these SUPERdelegates!

Primary Power

• Before 1960s, indirect primaries: votes were only a suggestion and party members would have final say

• Parties have lost power w/direct primary

Should we return to the indirect primary?

Campaign!• After Convention, campaign for office

begins (late August – Nov)

• General Election: November

–Determines winner

Party Centered Campaigns: DEcentralized parties – power is divided at

national, local & state levels• NATIONAL Committees (RNC, DNC):

–Organize the elections:• GOTV (Get Out The Vote): Register ppl to vote, call, mailers, etc

–Organize National Conventions • Service Relationship – parties support

candidates but cannot force them to do much

Cont’d

• STATE Committees – • LOCAL :

–Precincts: local voting district –Grassroots level

Candidate Centered CampaignsCandidates determine the issues & “flow” of

the election Packaging the candidate – likeability factor • Air wars: media fight ($$$)

– News– Commercials: rapid response

• Do negative ads help or hinder? • http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/commercials/

2008

– Debates

• Web wars –Web pages–How effective?

Ground wars• Swing voters: independents who

could choose either party• Battleground states OR Swing

states: states that are fairly split b/w the 2 parties

Adv / Dis of Candidate Centered Campaigns

– Chance for a

newcomer, party outsider

– Flexible to changing issues and events

– Makes local issues a priority

– Personality contests

– $$$ plays a large role, too large?

– Don’t have to take blame for Washington, they are still an “outsider”

Electoral College: only for the Pres/VP Elections

• In 48/50 states, the winner of the popular vote receives all of the states’ electoral votes = # of ppl state send to Congress

• In CA – 55 EV –3,000,000 popular votes for R–3,000,001 popular votes for D –Winner takes all 55 votes!

• http://www.270towin.com/

Election TimelineElection Timeline 1.1. AnnounceAnnounce you’re running2.2. CampaignCampaign:

a) Focus on the states that vote first!b) Raise money!

3. Win the Primary ElectionsPrimary Elections4.4. National ConventionNational Convention

a) Old days: party had ultimate decision in nomineeb) Now: People’s votes determine the nominee

5.5. One-on-oneOne-on-one campaign: R v. D6.6. General ElectionGeneral Election

1. Picks the winner2. November