View
8
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
TRIALOGUE
Meeting Place for Discussion on
Foreign and Security Policy
WHAT IS GOING ON IN LIBYA? INTERESTS,
POSITIONS AND PRIORITIES OF RUSSIAN POLICY
IN THIS COUNTRY
November 21, 2018
Vasily A. KuznetsovHead of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies,
Russian Academy of Sciences
WHAT IS GOING ON IN LIBYA? INTERESTS, POSITIONS AND PRIORITIES OF RUSSIAN POLICY IN THE COUNTRY
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
LIBYAN POLITICAL CONFLICT:ITS DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE
One or two conflicts in Libya?
TWO CONFLICTS2011 AND 2014-2018
ONE CONFLICT2011-2018
- Dynamics of casualties- Different local actors- Different external actors- Different processes of
reconciliation
- One initial reason- Same local groups of actors(regions, tribal groups etc.)- Limited external engagement
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
LIBYAN POLITICAL CONFLICT:ITS DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE
Pres. Council
GNAState
CouncilCentral
Bank
HoR LNA
Amazigh Supreme Council
ToubouIS
Interim Government in Al-Bayda
National Salvation Gov.
Council of tribes and
cities
Localmilitias
Localmilitias
Localmilitias
Central Bank 2
Local bodies
Localmilitias
Localmilitias
Local bodies
Local bodies
Local bodies
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
Political Situation
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
Libyan Tribes
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
Gas- Oil- Production in Libya
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
Militias of Tripoli
Hashim Bishr
Haytham Tajuri
Abd Al-Rauf Karah
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
Militias of Tripoli
Abdassalam al-Zubi
Abd Al-Hani Al-Kikli
Muhammed Al-Gnidi Bashir al-Bugra
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
Specific Features of Libyan Conflict•Fragility of Statehood, lack of Political Experience, Fragility of Common Identities
•Fragility of Social Structure: half-destroyed tribal system, half-formed modern citizenship, quazi-urbanisation
•Fragility of Actors: no real powerful actors
•Transactionism: Conflict as a Competence for Rent
•Ideological Minimalism: Ideologies, International Status and Collective Memory as Resources
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
External Actors in Libya
Tripoli Tobruk
TurkeyEgypt
Saudi Arabia
Italy
France
UAE
Qatar
UN
AlgeriaTunisia
African Union
USARussia
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
Libyan Peace Process
Skhirat Agreement (December 2015)
UNSMIL: Action Plan for Libya(Last Edition 2018)
• Constitution• National Conferenc
(Humanitarian Dialogue)• Elections
Meetings in UAE
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
Russia in Libya: Interests and Objectives➢- Absence of Strategic Interests
➢- Libya as a Part of the MENA Region: Creation of a new inclusive Regional Order
➢- Libya as a Part of Southern Mediterranean: Instrument of Russia-Europe Relations
➢- Libya as it is: Economic Cooperation
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
Russia in Libya: Tracks of Interaction
Ministry of Defense Ministry of
Foreign Affairs
Duma Chechnya
Contact Group
Presidency
LNA
GNA
HoR
State Council
Local Actors
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
Russia in Libya: Economic Cooperation In first 9 months of 2018: 172 752 639 $.
In the same period of 2017 it was 62 328 371 $. Growth: 56,44%
•Metals: 49,92% (in 2017 – 3,38%);
•Foodstuffs: 33,46% (in 2017 – 86,36%);
•Chemical production: 9,19% (in 2017 – 0,06%);
•Mineral Products: 3,12% (in 2017 – 3,19%);
•Wood, pulp and paper products: 2,83% (in 2017 – 6,34%).
© V. Kuznetsov, 2018
Recommended