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Providing more useful (uncertain) scientific information for decision-making:
End-to-end-to-end research
Rebecca E. Morss (NCAR),
Olga Wilhelmi, Mary Downton, and Eve Gruntfest
Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006
• Qualitative research study to improve scientific information about flood risk for use in flood management decisions
• Lessons learned on the interactions among scientific information, (uncertainty,) and decision-making
• End-to-end-to-end research
• Discussion
Outline
Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006
Motivation for study
• Despite flood risk management, flood damages remain high
– 1983-2003: average of $4.5 billion property damage, 98 deaths per year in U.S.
• Flood risk management relies on estimates of risk of extreme flooding –– which are uncertain for multiple reasons
• Focus region: Colorado Front Range
Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006
• How is scientific information about extreme flooding used in flood management decision-making?
• How does uncertainty in risk of extreme flooding interact with flood management decision-making?
• What new or improved scientific information about flood risk could we provide that would benefit flood management decision-making?
Research questions for study
Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006
Some findings
• Decision-makers (practitioners) are diverse, unique, and intertwined
Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006
Local government floodplain manager
A decision-maker
Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006
Local government agencies
(e.g., floodplain management)
Web of decision-makers
Professional associations
Private engineering consultants
Private land developers
Public (e.g., homeowners)
Private businesses
Local government elected officials
State & regional governments
Federal government
Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006
Some findings
• Practitioners’ ability and motivation to use new methods/information are often limited by political, technical, resource, and contextual constraints– For information to be useful, it must apply to
practitioners’ specific decision-making settings
– Relationships, trust, and credibility can be important
• Assumptions can create barriers– To provide useful information, scientists must interact
with practitioners regularly, to learn to appreciate their perspective, constraints, and decision-making context
• So, to help surmount these challenges …
Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006
Scientists’ traditional or “end-to-end” view of research & development
Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006
Scientists’ traditional or “end-to-end” view of research & development
Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006
“End-to-end-to-end” research &
development to aid decision-making
Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006
End-to-end-to end research involves
• Integrated (interdisciplinary), problem-oriented research & development that incorporates decision-makers’ needs and considerations
• Multiple iterations through process, with frequent multidirectional communication and feedback
• Mutual education, building trust & credibility
• Long-term partnerships among researchers, product developers, and practitioners
• Co-production of knowledge and tools
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