Putting Policy Makers First

Putting Policy Makers First

Putting Policy Makers First

Moving Beyond the Complexity Sciences to Complexity Engineering

www.synthesisips.net

greg.fisher@synthesisips.net

Moving Beyond the Complexity Sciences to Complexity Engineering

www.synthesisips.net

greg.fisher@synthesisips.net

IntroductionIntroduction

Bank of England for 9 years

Hedge Fund for 4 years

Synthesis - with Paul Ormerod & Bridget Rosewell in 2011

Bank of England for 9 years

Hedge Fund for 4 years

Synthesis - with Paul Ormerod & Bridget Rosewell in 2011

• Think Tank (policy intermediary)

• Centred around Complexity Theory

• Emerging Theme: Complexity Engineering

• Think Tank (policy intermediary)

• Centred around Complexity Theory

• Emerging Theme: Complexity Engineering

Why we are here...?Why we are here...?

Introducing: SharonIntroducing: Sharon

Complexity & Policy:How it works at the

moment

Complexity & Policy:How it works at the

moment

ok, I’m listening

That’s a pity. So what?

Ah well, you should be

aware when deciding

things that the world is not

deterministicComplexity Boffin

Complexity Boffin

Policy MakerPolicy Maker

What does that mean

for me?

*shrugs*, and?

and wave goodbye to

your funding!

There are these things

called emergent

phenomena. They’re terribly

important and It’s all a bit technical

Well, pattern recognition

helps because life seems to be a mix of

evolving patterns,

global cascades,

black swans, and things like

that.

Angela! I want to tell you about complex systems!

They’re amazing! Did you know that the future of a social systems is inherently

unknowable?!

Please leave now via that window

How It could WorkHow It could Work

Of course! Where do I begin?!...

Angela, could you tell me what your problems

are?

Complexity Boffin

Complexity Boffin

Policy MakerPolicy Maker

I would like to help by using

some new approaches to social systems.

Science & EngineeringScience & Engineering

Complexity Sciences

Complexity Sciences

Policy MakerPolicy MakerComplexity EngineeringComplexity Engineering

Intermediaries (like Think Tanks)Intermediaries (like Think Tanks)

Policy MakerPolicy MakerSharonSharon

Scientists & EngineersScientists & Engineers

Rigorous ThinkingRigorous Thinking

Scientific PrinciplesScientific Principles

Funky Tools like ABMFunky Tools like ABM

Imaginative Thinking to marry science & policyImaginative Thinking to marry science & policy

Engineering PrinciplesEngineering Principles

Empathy with policymakersEmpathy with policymakers

Internal dialogue: jargon mostly okInternal dialogue: jargon mostly ok

Clear articulation to laymanClear articulation to layman

Some Engineering Principles?

Some Engineering Principles?

Old Paradigm: one expert, correct model, add data = endogenous policy choice

But: society evolving, idiosyncrasies matter, & no-one can know whole terrain in wicked problem

Key principles:

Old Paradigm: one expert, correct model, add data = endogenous policy choice

But: society evolving, idiosyncrasies matter, & no-one can know whole terrain in wicked problem

Key principles:

• Crowd source views of policy space from multiple stakeholders

• Crowd source views of policy space from multiple stakeholders

• Pattern recognition of “policy space”• Pattern recognition of “policy space”

• Repeat back to test pattern recognition• Repeat back to test pattern recognition

• Consider policy options• Consider policy options

Example: Multiple & Severe Disadvantages

Example: Multiple & Severe Disadvantages

Round-Table Discussion: policy makers first

UK Care delivery is silo-based

People = Sum of care requirements

Sharon: 8 application forms for unemployment, childcare, drug abuse, homelessness, psychologist, etc.

Idea: tailored care for 5% of care cases - devolved authority

Round-Table Discussion: policy makers first

UK Care delivery is silo-based

People = Sum of care requirements

Sharon: 8 application forms for unemployment, childcare, drug abuse, homelessness, psychologist, etc.

Idea: tailored care for 5% of care cases - devolved authority

Publish on web as a “wiki”: additions & Evolution

Publish on web as a “wiki”: additions & Evolution

Moving Forward: Project IdeaMoving Forward: Project Idea

Learn from examples

Learn from examples

Learn from Complexity Consultants

Learn from Complexity Consultants

Prototype Tools

Prototype Tools

Apply to multiple Policy

Terrains

Apply to multiple Policy

TerrainsUse in PolicyUse in Policy

Learning Feedback

Loop

Learning Feedback

Loop

Mature Tools

Mature Tools

Q & AQ & A