Q4 2013 PCA - Access to Capital: A Dun & Bradstreet...

PCA Index Survey ResponsesFourth Quarter 2013

Craig Everett, Ph.D., MBA Director, Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Projec t

Capital Demand Index (“PCD Index”) are trademarks of Pepperdine University. PCA Index and PCD Index content is the

intellectual property of Pepperdine University or its third party content providers. Any copying, republication or

redistribution of PCA Index or PCD Index content, including but not limited to caching, framing or similar means, is expressly

prohibited without the prior written consent of Pepperdine University. Pepperdine University shall not be liable for any

errors, omissions or delays in Index content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

This research was made possible with the support of Dun & Bradstreet Credibility Corp., the leading provider of credit

building and credibility solutions for businesses.

DUN & BRADSTREET CREDIBILITY CORP.Jeffrey Stibel, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Judy Hackett, Chief Marketing OfficerAaron Stibel, Senior Vice President, Technology

Liz Gengl, Director, Marketing and CommunicationsBrenda Gary, Vice President, Marketing Operations

Lauren Simpson, Marketing and Communications ManagerBernice Brennan, Manager, Creative Services & Marketing Communications

Trenice Taylor, Marketing Manager

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I’d also like to thank the following people at The Graziadio School of Business and Management for their contributions:

Dean Linda LivingstoneAssociate Dean David M. Smith

Mike Sims, Executive Officer, CERJohn K. Paglia, Associate Professor of Finance

Douglass Gore, Director of Public RelationsMark Chun, Director, Center for Applied Research

Bill Bleuel, Professor of Decision Sciences Irina Shaykhutdinova, Research Analyst

and consultant, Simon James, Ph.D.

I. About the Private Capital Access (PCA) Index……...….…5

II. Demand for external financing……………………..….….14

III. Accessibility/success rate of raising new capital……...…21

IV. Satisfaction rates for various capital sources………..…..29

V. Expected demand for external financing……………..…..34

VI. Expected capital access (success) rates……………..….39

VII. Hiring/growth outlooks and financing failure impacts…45

VIII.About the respondents…………………………………..…54

Outline

The Pepperdine Private Capital Access Index (PCA) and Private

Capital Demand Index (PCD) are quarterly indicators produced by the

Graziadio School of Business and Management at Pepperdine

University, and with the support of Dun & Bradstreet Credibility Corp.

The index is designed to measure the demand for, activity, and health

of the private capital markets. The purpose of the two indices is to

gauge the demand of small and medium-sized businesses for financing

needs, the level of accessibility of private capital, and the transparency

and efficiency of private financing markets.

I. About the Private Capital Access

(PCA) Index

• 30 questions

• Invite to participate distributed to sample from Dun& Bradstreet Credibility Corp.’s business database

• 3,175 completed responses

• Where relevant, responses are segmented byrevenues sizes (<$5 million; $5 million to $100million)

• Responses collected from Oct 15 – Nov 6

About the Q3 2013 Private Capital

Access (PCA) Index Survey

Private Capital Access (PCA) and Private Capital

Demand (PCD) Index Results – Whole Sample

Total Market PCA Index PCD Index

2012-Q2 27.8 37.0

2012-Q3 27.0 36.5

2012-Q4 27.3 35.1

2013-Q1 25.6 32.7

2013-Q2 26.8 33.4

2013-Q3 27.5 31.7

2013-Q4 27.8 32.8

Change 0.3 1.1

Pct. Change 1.0% 3.6%

Private Capital Access (PCA) and Private Capital

Demand (PCD) Index Results – Whole Sample

2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

PCA Index 27.8 27.0 27.3 25.6 26.8 27.5

PCD Index 37.0 36.5 35.1 32.7 33.4 31.7

Small Business PCA and PCD Index Results

(< $5M in Revenues)

2012-Q2 26.6 38.8

2012-Q3 26.0 38.0

2012-Q4 26.3 36.5

2013-Q1 24.6 33.2

2013-Q2 26.3 34.3

2013-Q3 26.8 32.3

2013-Q4 26.6 33.9

Change -0.2 1.6

Pct. Change -0.6% 5.0%

Small Business PCA and PCD Index Results

(< $5M in Revenues)

2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

PCA Index 26.6 26.0 26.3 24.6 26.3 26.8

PCD Index 38.8 38.0 36.5 33.2 34.3 32.3

Lower Middle Market PCA and

PCD Index Results

($5M – $100M in Revenues)

2012-Q2 34.7 32.3

2012-Q3 33.5 33.1

2012-Q4 32.7 31.5

2013-Q1 31.9 30.6

2013-Q2 34.3 28.7

2013-Q3 34.7 27.6

2013-Q4 33.7 26.3

Change -1.0 -1.3

Pct. Change -2.9% -4.7%

Lower Middle Market PCA and PCD Index

Results

($5M – $100M in Revenues)

2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

PCA Index 34.7 33.5 32.7 31.9 34.3 34.7

PCD Index 32.3 33.1 31.5 30.6 28.7 27.6

Annual Revenue Change Expectations

by Revenue Size

Q3, 2012 Q4, 2012 Q1, 2013 Q2, 2013 Q3, 2013 Q4, 2013

Whole sample 7.3% 5.8% 6.4% 6.2% 5.4% 7.0%

< $5 million 7.1% 5.7% 5.9% 6.3% 5.2% 7.0%

$5 -$100 million 7.8% 6.7% 7.1% 5.3% 6.5% 8.1%

II. Demand for external financing

Demand for Financing by Purpose and Size

(% with any need reported)

100.0%

Planned

growth or

expansion,

including

acquisitions

(not yet

realized)

Working

capital

fluctuations

Growth due

to increased

demand

(already

realized)

Finance

worsening

operating

conditions

Refinance

existing loans

or equity

Withdraw

wealth for

owners

Whole sample 52.3% 51.5% 45.1% 34.7% 29.4% 23.1%

< $5 million 52.4% 52.4% 45.4% 36.2% 29.6% 23.0%

$5 -$100 million 53.8% 45.6% 44.0% 25.5% 27.1% 23.8%

Strength of Demand for Financing

(among those indicating demand)

Scale 1-4: slight, moderate, high, extremely high need

Planned

growth or

expansion,

including

acquisitions

(not yet

realized)

Refinance

existing loans

or equity

Working

capital

fluctuations

Growth due to

increased

demand

(already

realized)

Finance

worsening

operating

conditions

Withdraw

wealth for

owners

Whole sample 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0

< $5 million 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0

$5 -$100 million 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0

Respondents Indicating High and Extremely

High Demand for Financing

(among those indicating demand)

0%20%40%60%80%

Planned

growth or

expansion,

including

acquisitions

(not yet

realized)

Refinance

existing

loans or

equity

Working

capital

fluctuations

Finance

worsening

operating

conditions

Growth due

to increased

demand

(already

realized)

Withdraw

wealth for

owners

Whole sample 43.9% 42.0% 36.9% 36.1% 35.3% 31.7%

< $5 million 45.9% 42.6% 38.0% 36.6% 36.7% 32.0%

$5 -$100 million 29.6% 35.1% 31.2% 27.3% 23.7% 26.7%

Percentage Indicating “Yes” to “Is the current

business financing environment restricting…”

Growth opportunities for your business? Your ability to hire new employees?

50%44%

Whole sample < $5 million $5 -$100 million

Trade Accounts (Accounts Receivable) Payment

Period Trends Over the Past Three Months

Accelerated (receiving

payments from customers

faster than three months

Slowed (receiving payments

from customers slower than

three months ago)

Stayed the same

Whole sample < $5 million $5 million -$100 million

Percentage of Respondents Who Attempted

to Raise Outside Financing

in the Last Three Months

28% 28% 32%

III. Accessibility/success rate

Is it Difficult or Easy to Raise

New External Financing?

Equity financing Debt financing

100.0%

Difficult Neither

difficult

Whole sample 66.5% 15.8% 17.7%

< $5 million 68.8% 16.1% 15.1%

$5 -$100 million 53.2% 13.2% 33.6%

100.0%

Difficult Neither

difficult

nor easy

Whole sample 65.2% 15.5% 19.4%

< $5 million 68.7% 15.3% 16.0%

$5 -$100 million 45.3% 16.6% 38.1%

Financing Success Rates by Type and Business

Size for Prior Three Months

Friends

family

Grants

(SBIR,

STTR,etc.)

funding

Presale/Donate

funding

(Equity)

funding

(Debt)

credit

Credit

card -

Loan -

Credit

card -

Lease Bank

loan -

Credit

lender

Factor Angel

capital

Private

equity

lender

Whole sample 72% 31% 29% 14% 6% 63% 65% 53% 63% 57% 42% 17% 25% 40% 18% 15% 23% 12% 5%

< $5 million 71% 30% 28% 13% 7% 61% 63% 52% 62% 51% 34% 15% 21% 40% 15% 8% 18% 7% 5%

$5 -$100 million 76% 42% 25% 33% 0% 81% 85% 63% 75% 81% 75% 28% 50% 60% 44% 60% 60% 38% 0%

Percentage of Those Who Attempted to Raise

Financing by Type of Financing for Prior Three

Months

100.0%

Friends

family

Grants

(SBIR,

STTR,etc.)

funding

Presale/Donate

funding

(Equity)

funding

(Debt)

credit

Credit

card -

Loan -

Credit

card -

Lease Bank

loan -

Credit

lender

Factor Angel

capital

Private

equity

lender

Whole sample 41.2% 30.3% 15.8% 12.6% 12.4% 36.0% 41.8% 42.7% 49.9% 28.5% 57.1% 29.3% 32.7% 19.0% 16.1% 15.6% 15.8% 10.4% 9.4%

< $5 million 43.1% 32.3% 17.2% 13.6% 13.6% 36.9% 46.1% 44.7% 53.6% 28.4% 55.1% 31.0% 33.2% 20.1% 17.1% 16.5% 16.5% 10.4% 10.4%

$5 -$100 million 34.0% 14.2% 5.7% 7.5% 5.7% 34.0% 20.8% 32.1% 32.1% 28.3% 71.7% 19.8% 31.1% 13.2% 11.3% 11.3% 12.3% 9.4% 3.8%

Main Purpose for Raising or Attempting

to Raise Financing

100.0%

Growth or

expansion

(incl.

acquis.)

Working

capital

fluctuations

Replacing

equipment

or facilities

unrelated

to growth

expansion

Refinancing

existing

loans or

equity

Finance

worsening

operations

conditions

Withdraw

wealth for

owners

Whole sample 39.3% 29.5% 11.1% 9.6% 5.0% 0.8% 4.6%

< $5 million 38.7% 31.1% 10.4% 9.2% 5.6% 0.3% 4.7%

$5 -$100 million 43.4% 22.6% 11.3% 14.2% 2.8% 3.8% 1.9%

Reasons for Businesses Not Attempting to Raise

External Financing (Multiple Selections)

Enough

cash flow

Sufficient

financing

in place

economy

Business

would be

rejected

Lack of

expertise

enough

Waiting

cheaper

financing

Loss of

control /

flexibility

operation

liquidate

Whole sample 51% 25% 18% 17% 10% 9% 6% 4% 1% 8%

< $5 million 49% 23% 18% 19% 11% 9% 6% 4% 2% 8%

$5 -$100 million 66% 39% 12% 7% 3% 4% 6% 3% 0% 5%

Percentage of Owners Who Transferred

Personal Assets to Business

Over Prior Three Months

Yes No Unsure

Types of Personal Assets Transferred to Business

During Prior Three Months

(Multiple Selections)

Personal

savings /

investments

Personal

credit card

purchases

Personal loan Cash from the

sale of

personal

assets

Home equity

Whole sample 74% 43% 18% 22% 9% 5%

< $5 million 74% 44% 18% 22% 8% 5%

$5 -$100 million 77% 33% 20% 23% 18% 5%

IV. Satisfaction rates

Pricing and Contract Terms Satisfaction Rates

(for those with a successful raise)

Friends

family

Grants

(SBIR,

STTR,etc.)

funding

Presale/Donate

funding

(Equity)

funding

(Debt)

credit

Credit

card -

Loan -

Credit

card -

Lease Bank

loan -

Credit

lender

Factor Angel

capital

Private

equity

lender

Whole sample 89% 92% 81% 80% 33% 87% 48% 69% 66% 79% 85% 79% 71% 50% 79% 70% 71% 33% 50%

General Financing Process Satisfaction Rates

(by Outcome)

Friends

family

Grants

(SBIR,

STTR,etc.)

funding

Presale/Donate

funding

(Equity)

funding

(Debt)

credit

Credit

card -

Loan -

Credit

card -

Lease Bank

loan -

Credit

lender

Factor Angel

capital

Private

equity

lender

Successful 74% 79% 84% 70% 0% 80% 58% 54% 69% 77% 75% 70% 60% 51% 60% 58% 67% 29% 33%

Unsuccessful 26% 17% 13% 7% 5% 24% 17% 13% 18% 19% 9% 15% 10% 18% 11% 13% 14% 9% 9%

Percentage of Those Satisfied with Time Elapsed

from Point of First Contact until Funds Were

Received (for those successful raises)

Friends

family

Grants

(SBIR,

funding

Presale/

Donate

funding

(Equity)

funding

(Debt)

credit

Credit

card -

Loan -

Credit

card -

Lease Bank

loan -

Credit

lender

Factor Angel

capital

Private

equity

lender

Whole sample 76% 63% 84% 80% 50% 80% 71% 60% 77% 79% 69% 67% 72% 55% 64% 64% 75% 33%

Percentage of Those Unsuccessful Who Feel the

General Category of Financing is a Still a Good

Fit for Their Business

Friends

family

Grants

(SBIR,

STTR,etc.)

funding

Presale/Donate

funding

(Equity)

funding

(Debt)

credit

Credit

card -

Loan -

Credit

card -

Lease Bank

loan -

Credit

lender

Factor Angel

capital

Private

equity

lender

Whole sample 29% 63% 46% 45% 30% 58% 36% 47% 57% 51% 66% 62% 58% 44% 52% 49% 41% 41% 41%

V. Expected demand for external

financing

Percentage of Businesses Planning to Raise

Financing in the Next Six Months

Yes No Unsure

19%24%

Whole sample < $5 million $5 million -$100 million

Percentage of Respondents Indicating Demand

for New Financing in the Next Six Months

Planned

future

growth or

expansion

Expected

working

capital

fluctuations

Growth due

to expected

increased

demand

Expected

worsening

operating

conditions

Refinance

existing

loans or

equity

Withdraw

wealth for

owners

Whole sample 54% 50% 47% 31% 29% 19%

< $5 million 54% 51% 48% 32% 29% 20%

$5 million -$100 million 51% 40% 40% 22% 23% 16%

Strength of Expected Demand for New External

Financing in the Next Six Months

(Scale 1-4: Slight, Moderate, High, Extremely High)

Refinance

existing

loans or

equity

Planned

future

growth or

expansion

Expected

working

capital

fluctuations

Growth due

to expected

increased

demand

Expected

worsening

operating

conditions

Withdraw

wealth for

owners

Whole sample 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1

< $5 million 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.1

$5 million -$100 million 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0

Respondents Indicating High or Extremely High

Expected Demand for New External Financing in

the Next Six Months

100.0%

Planned

future

growth or

expansion

Refinance

existing

loans or

equity

Growth due

to expected

increased

demand

Expected

working

capital

fluctuations

Withdraw

wealth for

owners

Expected

worsening

operating

conditions

Whole sample 43.5% 43.3% 37.7% 36.3% 33.8% 32.6%

< $5 million 45.6% 44.3% 39.6% 38.0% 35.5% 33.6%

$5 million -$100 million 26.1% 33.9% 22.4% 23.5% 27.0% 25.9%

VI. Expected access rates

Do You Expect It Would Be Easy or Difficult to

Raise New Financing in the Next Six Months?

Equity financing Debt financing

100.0%

Difficult Neither

difficult

Whole sample 65.5% 14.3% 20.2%

< $5 million 67.8% 13.9% 18.3%

$5 -$100 million 50.4% 17.4% 32.2%

100.0%

Difficult Neither

difficult

nor easy

Whole sample 63.1% 13.9% 22.9%

< $5 million 66.5% 13.6% 20.0%

$5 -$100 million 42.6% 16.3% 41.1%

Likely Sources of Financing

Friends

family

Grants

(SBIR,

STTR,etc.)

funding

Presale/Donate

funding

(Equity)

funding

(Debt)

credit

Credit

card -

Loan -

Credit

card -

Lease Bank

loan -

Credit

lender

Factor Angel

capital

Private

equity

lender

Whole sample 35% 38% 35% 19% 10% 8% 25% 33% 43% 33% 60% 36% 32% 17% 24% 22% 24% 13% 7%

Main Purpose for Raising Expected Financing

Growth or

expansion

(incl.

acquisition)

Working

capital

fluctuations

Replacing

equipment

or facilities

unrelated

to growth

expansion

Refinancing

existing

loans or

equity

Finance

worsening

operations

conditions

Withdraw

wealth for

owners

Whole sample 54.5% 21.2% 7.6% 8.6% 2.5% 1.0% 4.5%

< $5 million 54.3% 22.0% 7.0% 8.8% 2.5% 0.9% 4.5%

$5 -$100 million 56.3% 15.0% 13.8% 8.8% 3.8% 1.3% 1.3%

Level of Confidence for Successful Financing(Scale 0-4: none; some; moderately; very; completely)

Friends

family

Grants

(SBIR,

STTR,etc.)

funding

Presale/Donate

funding

(Equity)

funding

(Debt)

credit

Credit

card -

Loan -

Credit

card -

Lease Bank

loan -

Credit

lender

Factor Angel

capital

Private

equity

lender

Whole sample 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.0 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.3

< $5 million 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.2

$5 -$100 million 2.1 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.5 0.5 1.9 1.6 1.6 3.0 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.3 2.5

Reasons for Not Planning on Raising Financing

Enough

cash flow

Sufficient

financing

in place

economy

Business

would be

rejected

Lack of

expertise

enough

Waiting

cheaper

financing

Loss of

control /

flexibility

operation

liquidate

Whole sample 51% 25% 18% 17% 10% 9% 6% 4% 1% 8%

< $5 million 49% 23% 18% 19% 11% 9% 6% 4% 2% 8%

$5 -$100 million 66% 39% 12% 7% 3% 4% 6% 3% 0% 5%

VII. Hiring / growth outlooks and

financing failure impacts

Number of Employees Planned to Be Hired in

the Next Six Months

0 1-2 3-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 76 -

Whole sample 45% 30% 14% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

< $5 million 47% 31% 13% 5% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

$5 million -$100 million 27% 22% 22% 13% 6% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1%

Impacts of Unsuccessful Financing Event in the

Next Six Months for Those Planning to Raise

Capital (Multiple selections)

Slower business

growth

Hire fewer new

employees than

planned

Reduce number

of employees

(layoffs)

Sell business

assets or shut

No expected

impacts on

growth,

business size,

or hiring plans

Whole sample 67% 53% 20% 17% 16%

< $5 million 67% 53% 20% 18% 16%

$5 million -$100 million 63% 51% 18% 11% 19%

Annual Revenues Change for Last 12 Months:

Whole Sample

4% 4%3%

5%3% 3%

4% 4% 4%3%

Decline Increase

Annual Revenues Change for Last 12 Months :

Revenues Under $5M

4% 4%3%

4% 3% 3%3%

Decline Increase

Annual Revenues Change for Last 12 Months :

Revenues from $5M to $100M

2% 2%2%

2%3% 3%

10%11%

Decline Increase

(Next 12 Months): Whole Sample

1% 1% 2% 2% 2%3%

7% 7.0%

Decline Increase

(Next 12 Months): Revenues Under $5M

1% 1% 1% 2%2% 3%

8%7.0%

Decline Increase

(Next 12 Months): Revenues $5M to $100M

Decline Increase

VIII. About the Respondents

Details About the RespondentsGeographic Location

Less than or equal to 1011 - 2526 - 5051 - 7576 - 100101 - 150151 - 200more than 200

MT ND MN

Details About the RespondentsPercentage of Respondents Who Feel Their State Supports

Business Policies That Benefit Their Business

Yes No

51% 49%

Details About the RespondentsPercentage of Respondents Who Feel Their State Should Be

More Involved in Making Capital More Accessible to

Businesses

Yes No

Details About the RespondentsPercentage of Respondents Who Feel That They Have Access

to Information about Available Capital Programs That Their

Business Could Be Participating in Their State Today

Yes No

Details About the Respondents

Industry

4%3%3%

4% 3% 3% 1%

Services

Construction

Retail trade

Finance & real estate

Manufacturing

Information technology or services

Health care

Wholesale trade

Unclassified establishments

Educational services

Arts, entertainment or recreation

Transportation and warehousing

Forestry, fishing, hunting or agriculture

Utilities & mining

Annual Revenues

27%12%

2% 1% 3% $1 - $100,000

$100,001 - $500,000

$500,001 - $1,000,000

$1,000,001 - $5,000,000

$5,000,001 - $10,000,000

$10,000,001 - $25,000,000

$25,000,001 - $50,000,000

$50,000,001 - $100,000,000

$100,000,001 - $500,000,000

Annual Income

1% Negative (net loss)

$0 - $100,000

$100,001 - $500,000

$500,001 - $1,000,000

$1,000,001 - $5,000,000

More than $5,000,000

Firm age

6% 6%6%

Less than 1 year

At least 1 but less than 2

20 or more

Number of Employees

3% 4%4%3%

2% 2% 1-2 3-5

6-10 11-15

16-20 21-30

31-50 51-100

101-200 More than 200

About Pepperdine Private Capital Markets ProjectThe Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project at the Graziadio School of Business and Management is the first simultaneous, comprehensive, and on-going investigation of the major private capital market segments. The research seeks to understand the true cost of private capital across market types and the investment expectations of privately-held business owners; providing lenders, investors and the businesses that depend on them with critical data to make optimal investment and financing decisions, and better determine where the opportunities to create lasting economic value may be realized. Download reports and find more information at http://bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital.

About Pepperdine University’s Graziadio School of Bu siness and Management Founded on the core values of integrity, stewardship, courage, and compassion, Pepperdine University’s Graziadio (GRAT-ZEE-ah-DEE-oh) School of Business and Management has been developing values-centered leaders and advancing responsible business practice since 1969. Student-focused, experience-driven, and globally-oriented, the Graziadio School offers fully accredited top-ranked MBA, Masters of Science, and bachelor’s completion business programs. More information found at http://bschool.pepperdine.edu/newsroom/.

THANK YOU!

Craig Everett, Ph.D., MBA Director, Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project

http://bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapitalcraig.everett@pepperdine.edu

310.506.8543

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