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GLOWA GLOWA –– Jordan RiverJordan River
Recent climatic trends over the Mediterranean and future projections
Pinhas AlpertDept. Geophysics and Planetary Sciences,Tel-Aviv University, Israel
With: S.O. Krichak, I. Osetinsky, M. Dayan, L. Sever,H. Saaroni, B. Ziv, H. Shafir. K. Bassat,
P. Kishcha, T. Ben-Gai
In cooperation with: Israeli Ministryof Science and Technology
Financed by: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Principal Objectives for GLOWA JR I Principal Objectives for GLOWA JR I
• To determine the vulnerability of water resources in Israel in response to climate change
• To develop sustainable management practices in the watershed of the Jordan River
See Poster by J. Daniels next to Registration
Climatic TrendsClimatic Trends
Outline(Observations vs. Projections)
1. Temperatures 2. Rainfall3. Extreme Temperature4. Extreme Rainfall5. Synoptic systems6. Open questions
Climatic TrendsClimatic Trends
1. Temperatures
a. Observed trendsb. Predicted trends
Trend summer (JJA) temperature (°C/100y)- NNRP reanalysis
Warming trend of 1.5 – 4°C/100y,mostly over W- Med & Egypt, ~3-4 times that of the global trend
See Poster: Saaroni et al.H. Saaroni, B. Ziv, J. Edelson, and P. Alpert, 2003, Long-term variations in summer temperatures over the Eastern Mediterranean, Geophysical ResearchLetters, 30, 18, 1946, 2003 (DOI:10.1029/2003GLO17742)
Summer (JJA) MaximumTemperatures
2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990Regional Climate Modelling (ICTP & TAU)
IS92 a
IS92 a
IS92 a
IS92 a
The SRES marker emission scenarios and theresulting change in concentration
concentrationsemissions
Summer (JJA) MaximumDifferences-Temperatures
Raisinen (Personal Communication)
Some Paradoxes in Israel Climatic TrendsSome Paradoxes in Israel Climatic Trends
The Temperature Paradox in Israel
Summer Temperatures IncreaseWinter Temperatures Decrease
Total trend: None
Surface Temp. Trends in Israel (1965 Surface Temp. Trends in Israel (1965 –– 95) 95)
Summer
Winter
Ben-Gai, Bitan,Manes, Alpert, 1998: TAC
Winter Temperatures in Israel & NAO Winter Temperatures in Israel & NAO
a. Winter Tmax & NAO
b. Winter Tmin & NAO
Ben-Gai, Bitan, Manes, Alpert,Kushnir, BLM,2001
NAO 1950-1994
Winter NAO 1950 - 1994
Distribution of the shape of the1948-2000 curve trendsof the 850 hPa temperatures
(See Poster)
Like GlobalTrend
Ziv, H. Saaroni, A. Baharad, D. Yekutieli and P. Alpert, The indications for aggravationin summer heat conditions over the Mediterranean Basin. Geophysical Research Letters (in press)
Climatic TrendsClimatic Trends
2. Rainfall
a. Observed trendsb. Predicted trends
Rainfall Trends (1958Rainfall Trends (1958--1998)1998)
Alpert, P., 2004: “The water crisis in the E. Med and relation to GlobalWarming?”, in Water in the Mid-east and N. Africa (Ed. Zereini & Jaeschke),Springer, p. 55-61.
Raisinen (Personal Communication)
Italy Rain1951-1995
N. Italy
Central Italy
S. Italy20% reduction
Sharp gradient in Trends over Israel
Steinberger & Gazit – Yaari, J. Climate, 1996
Precipitation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
40s 50s 60s 70s 80s
mm
/ a Um Qeis
IrbidRamtha
Salameh
GCM prediction: further aridification and increasing variability
Winter (DJF) Rainfall DifferencesWinter (DJF) Rainfall Differences
Some Paradoxes in Israel Climatic TrendsSome Paradoxes in Israel Climatic Trends
The Rainfall Paradox in IsraelNorth Israel- Decreasing trendsSouth Israel- Increasing trends
Why increase in the south?(In 2003/4 – just the opposite; change of trends since 90s?)
Possible answers:•Land-use change•Tele-connections,•Synoptic changes•All the above; factor separation?
Red-Sea Trough
Alpert, P. et al, 2004: Semi-objective classification for daily synoptic systems,Application to the E. Mediterranean climate change, Intern. J. of Climato. Vol 24 (in press)
Droughtperiod
RedRed--Sea Trough Days per YearSea Trough Days per Year(1948(1948--2000)2000)
Cyprus Low days per year Cyprus Low days per year (1948(1948--2000) 2000)
Alpert, P. et al, 2004: Semi-objective classification for daily synoptic systems,Application to the E. Mediterranean climate change, Intern. J. of Climato. Vol 24 (in press)
Reconstructed Albedo
Ben-Gai et al (1998)
Ben-Gai et al (1993)
Climatic TrendsClimatic Trends
3. Extreme Temperatures
a. Observed trendsb. Predicted trends
Distribution of 850 mb daily summer temperatures
•Shift in the mode •Increase in extreme events
Saaroni, Ziv, Alpert, 2003: Long-term Variations in Summer Temperatures, over the Eastern Mediterranean (GRL, Vol 30, p. 1946)
850 hPa(32.5ºN, 35ºE)
Histogram forDuration (d) of hot/cool spells(850 mb NNRP reanalysis)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Length (No. of days)
No.
of s
pells
Cold Hot
1975-1948
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Length (No. of days)
No
Cold Hot
2002-1976Ziv, H. Saaroni, A. Baharad,D. Yekutieli and P. Alpert,2005,The indications for aggravationin summer heat conditions overthe Mediterranean Basin. GRL (in press)
Effects of extreme temperatures
• Fruit loss (fall-out) particularly in Citrus
• Longer periods of hot spells cause1. increase in water consumption 2. damage to young fruit
Thanks to Jiftah Ben-Asher
Tmax, summer, Har-Knaan
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
percent (%)
Tmax
(C)
observed control B2 A2Following Deque
Downscaling Daily Temperatures (1961-1990)
Tmax, Har-Knaan, corrected
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
percent (%)
Tmax
(C)
observed control B2 A2
Har-Knaan, TMAX, distribution
0123456789
10
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
TMAX (C)
Perc
ent (
%)
observed control control correctedB2 B2 corrected A2A2 corrected
Har-Knaan, TMAX, distribution
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
TMAX (C)
Perc
ent (
%)
observed control corrected B2 corrected A2 corrected
Climatic TrendsClimatic Trends
4. Extreme Rainfall
a. Observed trendsb. Predicted trends
SpainSpain-- Trend in daily Rainfall CategoriesTrend in daily Rainfall Categories(~400 (~400 raingaugesraingauges))
Natural separation of categories
Alpert et al, GRL,2002
Trend
IsraelIsrael-- Trend in Rainfall CategoriesTrend in Rainfall Categories(~ 40 (~ 40 raingaugesraingauges))
Heavy categories (C1,C2) UPLight categories (A,B) DOWN
Alpert et al, GRL,2002
precipitation, Har-Knaan, log
0.1
1
10
100
1000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
percent (%)
prec
ipita
tion
(mm
/d)
observed control B2 A2
Downscaling Daily Rainfall (1961-1990)
precipitation, Har-Knaan, corrected, log, centiles
0.1
1
10
100
1000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
percent (%)
prec
ipita
tion
(mm
/d)
observed control B2 A2
precipitation, Har-Knaan, corrected, zoom, centiles
2030405060708090
100110120130140
95 95.5 96 96.5 97 97.5 98 98.5 99 99.5 100
percent (%)
prec
ipita
tion
(mm
/d)
observed control B2 A2
precipitation, Har-Knaan, corrected, zoom2, centiles
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
99.5 99.6 99.7 99.8 99.9 100
percent (%)
prec
ipita
tion
(mm
/d)
observed control B2 A2
Some Paradoxes in Israel Climatic TrendsSome Paradoxes in Israel Climatic Trends
The Extreme Rainfall Paradox in the Mediterranean
Total Rain decreasesExtreme rainfall increases
Answer:
Change of rainfall distribution
Change in Temp. Distributions under Change in Temp. Distributions under Global Warming (3 Options)Global Warming (3 Options)
IPCC, 2001
The 4th optionThe 4th option
Decrease in mean & increase in variance
Is this paradoxical behavior really occurring in the Mediterranean?
Yes, P. Alpert, T. Ben-Gai, A. Baharad, Y. Benjamini, D. Yekutieli, M. Colacino,
L. Diodato, C. Ramis, V. Homar, R. Romero, S. Michaelides and A. Manes,The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofof decrease in total values” Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 11, 31-1 – 31-4, (June issue),2002.
Trends (%) in total versus Heavy Precipitation
Ben-Gai et al,TAC, 1999
Climatic TrendsClimatic Trends
5. Synoptic systems
a. Observed trendsb. Predicted trends
B2 – dynamics of technological change continue along the historical trends Observed CO2 and other GHG
ECHAM- Winter lows
ECHAM-Persian Trough
1950-2099
ECHAM-Black & RedHadCM3- Green & Blue
B2 – dynamics of technological change continue along the historical trends Observed CO2 and other GHG
ECHAM4
HadCM3-
GLOWA GLOWA –– Jordan RiverJordan River
Do global models “see” the recent synoptic
trends?
ECHAM vs. NCEP reanalysis (1950ECHAM vs. NCEP reanalysis (1950--2000)2000)Annual frequencies of Synoptic SystemsAnnual frequencies of Synoptic Systems
The good news
RedRed--Sea Trough days per year Sea Trough days per year (1948(1948--2000)2000)
The Bad news
ECHAM
NCEP reanalysis
Cyprus Low days per year Cyprus Low days per year (1948(1948--2000)2000)
The Bad news
NCEP reanalysis
ECHAM
GLOWA GLOWA –– Jordan RiverJordan River
Some unanswered questions?
GLOWA GLOWA –– Jordan RiverJordan River
Question No. 1:
Are seasons changingIn the E. Mediterranean?
Alpert,P., Osetinsky, I.,Ziv, B. and Shafir, H., 2004:"A New Definition to the Seasons Based on Synoptic Systems and Example for Israel", Intern. J. Climatology,(in press)
Months
Synoptic systems’ frequencies averaged over 1948Synoptic systems’ frequencies averaged over 1948--20002000
Definitions of the SeasonsDefinitions of the Seasons
synoptic
31 1 13 22 25 1 1 1 7 12 22 23
--|----JUNE --|- -JULY- -|-AUGUST-|--SEPTEMBER
high season
temperature
meteorological
astronomical
summersummer
Definitions of the SeasonsDefinitions of the Seasons
synoptic
1 7 12 22 1 17 1 1 2 14 21 30
|--DECEMBER--|-JANUARY--|FEBRUARY-|---MARCH-----
high season
temperature
meteorological
astronomical
winterwinter
GLOWA GLOWA –– Jordan RiverJordan River
Question No. 2:How large are the errors in
the global climate models caused by‘ignoring’ land-
use changes?
Regions of major LUCLUC over 40 years (1950 – 1990), HYDE database
desertificationdesertification deforestationdeforestationcultivationcultivation
CultivationCultivation-- N. AustraliaN. Australia
1. agriculture
2. pasture
5 18
Natural vegetation classificationnorthnorth southsouth
CultivationCultivation-- Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
GLOWA GLOWA –– Jordan RiverJordan River
Question No. 3:Do we really know the rainfall distribution over the E. Mediterranean?
For instance, where is the maximum?
NNRP
1998/9
1999/00
2000/01
E. Mediterranean RainfallE. Mediterranean Rainfall-- 5 winters5 wintersTRMM satellite vs. NNRP15 reanalysisTRMM satellite vs. NNRP15 reanalysis
TRMM
Total-5 winters
2002/3
2001/2
E. Mediterranean Rainfall E. Mediterranean Rainfall TRMM satellite vs. NNRP15 reanalysisTRMM satellite vs. NNRP15 reanalysis
NNRPTRMM
E. Mediterranean Rainfall 2003/4(DecE. Mediterranean Rainfall 2003/4(Dec--Feb)Feb)TRMM VS. TRMM VS. MesoscaleMesoscale modelmodel
TRMM MM5- fine20 km
MM5-coarse60 km
SUMMARY• Large-scale IPCC predictions over the Mediterranean
suggest: 3-35% rainfall reductions; 3-5 Deg warming by 2071-2100.
• Nearly all the Mediterranean shows significant rainfall decreasing trends.
• In Israel, there are mixed rainfall trends with increases over the south.
• Rainfall increases over the south are partly due to land-use changes and partly due to synoptic increase of Red-Sea Trough frequency.
• Winter temperatures in Israel are dropping due to NAO increase and hence due to global warming!
Past 420,000 y
CO 2concentration
Temperature-anomalies
Tropical effects on Mediterranean Weather & Climate
HurricaneOlga
IndiannMonsoonAfrican
Monsoon
DUST
El-Nino
GLOWA GLOWA –– Jordan RiverJordan River
Thank you!
Raisinen (Personal Communication)
GLOWA GLOWA –– Jordan RiverJordan River
Question No. 3:
Why increase in the south?
This year 2003/4 – just the opposite; change of trends since 90s?
850 hPa absolute maximum & minimum temperatures for July/August at (32.5ºN, 35ºE)
Min. Temp. Trend = +0.06 K/10y
14
17
20
23
26
29
32
1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998
Years
Max
/Min
Tem
pera
ture
s (K
)
Max. Temp. Trend = +0.195 K/10y
H. Saaroni, B. Ziv, J. Edelson, and P. Alpert, 2003, Long-term variations in summer temperatures over the Eastern Mediterranean, Geophysical ResearchLetters, 30, 18, 1946, 2003 (DOI:10.1029/2003GLO17742)
Past 420,000 y
CO 2concentration
Temperature-anomalies
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