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Red Pill, Blue Pill
Decision Making in Projects
Simona Bonghez, Ph.D.
Director, Colors in Projects
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2013 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Agenda
The Message (and definitions)
Decision making process
Decision making models
Whats influencing us, whats stopping us
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Agenda
The Message (and definitions)
Decision making process
Decision making models
Whats influencing us, whats stopping us
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
List of Important Interpersonal Skills (PMBOK Guide, 5th Ed.)
Leadership
Team building
Motivation
Communication
Influencing
Decision making
Political and cultural awareness
Negotiation
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
The Message
You take the blue pill -- the story ends,
you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe.
You take the red pill -- you stay in Wonderland
and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
The Message
Decisions are necessary
We make decisions every day
Its everyones responsibility to take decisions and accept the
outcomes of the decisions
We all have freedom of choice, but you will never have freedom of
consequences.
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
The Definition
Decision making is the study of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values and preferences of the decision maker.
Making a decision implies that there are alternative choices to be considered, and we want not only to identify as many of these alternatives as possible but to choose the one that:
has the highest probability of success or effectiveness and
best fits with our goals, desires, lifestyle, values, and so on.
(Harris, 2012)
PROJECT MANAGERS
WHAT MY TEAM
THINK I DO
WHAT MY BOSS
THINKS I DO
WHAT MY FRIENDS
THINK I DO
WHAT MY WIFE
THINKS I DO
WHAT I THINK I DO WHAT I REALLY DO
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Decision making levels in projects
Organizational perspective alignment to business objectives
Related to project alignment to organizational strategy, project governance, project management approach, etc
Strategic
Project Management perspective project management processes, tools and techniques
Related to project management processes, project management plan
Tactical
Product, Service or Result perspective project scope
Related to project activities Operational
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Decision making levels in projects
Organizational perspective alignment to business objectives
Made by the project steering committee
Related to project alignment to organizational strategy, project governance, project management approach, etc
Strategic
Project Management perspective project management processes, tools and techniques
Made by the project manager
Related to project management processes, project management plan
Tactical
Product, Service or Result perspective project scope
Made by the project manager and/or project team members
Related to project activities Operational
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Key decision points in projects
Project selection
Deciding upon the project management methodology or
project management processes to be followed
Choosing the project team
Establishing the project control points
Go/no go decisions
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Importance of the context
Germany
Sober driver
Drunk driver
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Importance of the context
Germany Romania
Sober driver
Drunk driver
Drunk driver
Sober driver
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Key decision points in projects
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Agenda
The Message (and definitions)
Decision making process
Decision making models
Whats influencing us, whats stopping us
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Frogs on the log
Three frogs on the log. One decides to leave;
how many frogs remain on the log?
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Decision-making process
(according Peter Drucker)
Classifying the problem
Defining the problem
Specifying the answer to the problem
Deciding what is right, rather than what is acceptable
Converting decision into action
Validating the effectiveness of the decision
Defining the problem
Specifying the answer
Deciding Acting Classifying the problem Validating
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Agenda
The Message (and definitions)
Decision making process
Decision making models
Whats influencing us, whats stopping us
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Decision making models
Rational models
Intuitive models
Rational-iterative models
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Decision making models
Rational models
Intuitive models
Rational-iterative models
The decision making process is
intuition based on 95% of the time...
Gary Klein
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Available time for
making a decision
Mainly rational model
Both rational and
intuitive models
Mainly intuitive model
(relying on gut feeling)
Mainly intuitive model
(relying on previous
experiences)
Experience in the subject area
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Recognition Primed
Decision Making Model
How it works:
pick up cues and indicators
recognize patterns
choose a single course of action (an action script)
run the action script through a mental simulation
alter the script
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Agenda
The Message (and definitions)
Decision making process
Decision making models
Whats influencing us, whats stopping us
29 29
Biases in Decision Situations
Availability heuristics
Anchoring
Sunk cost bias
Premature termination of search for evidence
Selective perception
Wishful thinking or optimism bias
Choice-supportive bias
Recency or repetition bias
Framing
Overconfidence
...
30
Welcome to
Our Friendly Casino This year 168,368 people lost $560
milion here.
5% of our guest divorced,
1% became alcoholics,
and 0,4% committed sucide
(Virine and Trumper, 2008)
Availability Heuristic
31 31
Anchoring trap
Is the population of Turkey
greater than 35 milion?
What is your best estimate of
Turkeys population?
Is the population of Turkey
greater than 100 milion?
What is your best estimate of
Turkeys population?
(Hammond, Keeney, Raiffa, 1998)
32
Sunk Cost Bias
33
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Whats stopping us
Failure following you
wherever you go
35
35
... I knew the woodpeckers were a mistake ...
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Whats stopping us (cont.)
Consider failure as tuition
Analyze cause of failure, identify new approaches,
improvements
Our greatest glory is not in never falling
but in rising every time we fall.
Confucius
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
Whats stopping us (cont.)
The best is the enemy of the good
Franois-Marie Arouet
(Voltaire)
PMI is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 2012 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI Marketplace use only.
The End
The secret of being a bore is
to tell everything
Franois-Marie Arouet (Voltaire)
39
Simona Bonghez, Ph.D Director, Colors in Projects
www.colorsinprojects.ro
Thank you
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