Regional patterns of evolving glacio-hydrologic processes ...€¦ · demonstrates the glacier...

Chris Frans PhD Candidate Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Regional patterns of evolving glacio-hydrologic processes in the Pacific Northwest

Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference

September, 9 2014

Acknowledgements

2

Erkan Istanbulluoglu (UW) Dennis Lettenmaier (UW, UCLA)

Garry Clarke (UBC) Matt Stumbaugh (UW) Christina Bandaragoda (UW) Andrew Fountain (PSU) Matthew Bachmann (USGS) Jon Riedel (NPS)

Funding: NASA Seattle City Light

Glacier Recssion and Downstream Risks: Water Management

3

http://www.panoramio.com/photo/6246614

www.facebook.com user: Denny Substation Project

www.mytpu.org  

Hydrologic Response to Glacier Recession

4

Phases of Hydrologic Response to persistent glacier recession

Time

Dis

char

ge

(% o

f pre

-war

min

g m

ean)

Onset of warming

Enhanced Melting

Rate

Reduction in glacier area overcomes

enhanced melting

Glacier melt no longer significantly

contributes to discharge

100

1

2

3 4

Sample of Partially Glacierized PNW Watersheds

5

Hoh

Nooksack Baker Thunder

Stehekin Cascade

Nisqually

Hood

Partially Glacierized PNW Watersheds

6

Diablo Lake

Lake Chelan

Alder Lake Nisqually

Thunder

Stehekin

Cascade

South Cascade

Sandalee

Yawning

N. Klawatti

Nisqually

Emmons

Glacier Extent Data Sources: North Cascades ~1950, Andrew Fountain; North Cascades 2010, Landsat Imagery; Mount Rainer 1913/2009, Andrew Fountain

North Cascades Mount Rainier

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2009/3046/

South Cascade Glacier

Nisqually Glacier

Coupled Glacio-Hydrological Modeling [Naz et al. 2014]

7

Glacier  

Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM, Wigmosta et al. 1994)

Representation of ice flow is required to evolve glacier area over long time scales which is essential for the projection of low flows in partially glacierized watersheds

UBC Glacier Dynamics Model

Constraining Modeling with Observations

8

Modeled

Glacier Mass

Glacier Area

(Mount Hood)

Data Sources: South Cascade Glacier, USGS; Blue Glacier, UW ESS; Mount Hood, Jackson and Fountain (2007)

1916 2004

Model Application: Hood River, Oregon

9

Eliot Creek Diversion

Coe Creek Diversion

Hood River: Historical Analysis (1916-2010)

10

Mean Annual Daily Maximum Contribution: 49%

Maximum Daily Contribution: 77%

Hood River: Historical Analysis (1916-2010)

11

Modeled Eliot Creek September Discharge Volume

Hood River: Future Projections

12

Future simulations are forced with projections of 10 GCMs for two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) downscaled using the MACA methodology as part of the Integrated Scenarios of the Future Northwest Environment project (NWCSC, CIRC).

Hood River: Future Projections

13

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

*Individual GCM data represents 10-yr running mean

Hydrologic Response to Glacier Recession

14

Diagnosing Present Phase of Hydrologic Response D

isch

arge

(%

of p

re-w

arm

ing

mea

n)

Onset of warming

100

Hoh

Stehekin

Thunder

Cascade

Baker Nisqually

Nooksack

Phase

1

2

3 4

Hood

Hydrologic Response to Glacier Recession

15

Projecting Future (20XX) Phase of Hydrologic Response

Dis

char

ge

(% o

f pre

-war

min

g m

ean)

Onset of warming

100 Hoh

Stehekin

Thunder

Cascade

Baker Nisqually

Nooksack

Phase

1

2

3 4

Hood

Hydrologic Response to Glacier Recession

16

Describing Mechanism behind Present Phase of Hydrologic Response

Phase

Dis

char

ge

(% o

f pre

-war

min

g m

ean)

Onset of warming

100 Southern Aspect

Continental

Leeward Northern Aspect

Debris Cover

Maritime

Low Relative Elevation

High Initial %Glacier

Low Initial %Glacier

1

2

3 4

Hydrologic Response to Glacier Recession

17

Generalizing the Pathway of Hydrologic Response

2100

Smoo

thed

Dis

char

ge

Nor

mal

ized

to H

isto

rical

1

Southern Aspect Northern Aspect

Debris Cover Low Initial %Glacier

High Initial %Glacier

Time

Conclusions

18

•  A framework for describing glacio-hydrologic change across the Pacific Northwest region is outlined

•  An example model application in the Hood River basin demonstrates the glacier contribution to late summer streamflow has risen steadily over the last ~40 years, during a time when the non-glacier contribution has been steadily decreasing

•  A consensus over climate models indicates that this glacier melt contribution will continue to increase until midcentury (Sept.)

•  Ongoing data analysis and model applications in 8 river basins are being used to characterize glacio-hydrologic change across the PNW

19

References Jackson, K. M., & Fountain, A. G. (2007). Spatial and morphological change on Eliot Glacier, Mount Hood, Oregon, USA. Annals of Glaciology, 46(1), 222-226.

Jarosch, A. H., Schoof, C. G., & Anslow, F. S. (2013). Restoring mass conservation to shallow ice flow models over complex terrain. The Cryosphere, 7(1).

Naz, B. S., Frans, C. D., Clarke, G. K. C., Burns, P., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2014). Modeling the effect of glacier recession on streamflow response using a coupled glacio-hydrological model. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences, 10(4).

Wigmosta, M. S., Vail, L. W., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (1994). A distributed hydrology‐vegetation model for complex terrain. Water Resources Research, 30(6), 1665-1679.

Thank you! chrisf2@uw.edu