Relevant Climate studies of the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) By AYILARI-NAA JUATI AND ELIKEM...

Relevant Climate studies of the Ghana Meteorological Agency

(GMet) By

AYILARI-NAA JUATIAND

ELIKEM SETSOAFIA

19-23 November 2012

DATA RESCUE WORKSHOPErata Hotel, Accra, Ghana

THE GHANA THE GHANA METEOROLOGICAL METEOROLOGICAL

AGENCYAGENCY

PROVIDING WEATHER AND PROVIDING WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR

RAPID SOCIO-ECONOMIC RAPID SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT

OUTLINE• Network of Meteorological stations• The Volta Basin (covering 6 W/African

countries)• Dams within the Volta Basin• Some climate studies of GMet in the Sudan

and Guinea Savannah of Ghana.• Comparing results of these studies with Climate

Indices for Wa in the Guinea Savannah• Challenges and Recommendations

National Observing Network

N avrongo

Akuse

Tem a

W a

YendiTam ale

Bole

Kete K rachiW enchi

Sunyani

AbetifiKum asiH o

Sefw i Bekw ai

Akim O daKoforidua Akatsi

TakoradiAxim

Saltpond

AccraAda

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

NETW ORK OF SYNOPTIC STATIONS

22 Synoptic stations

-3 .0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

N ETW O R K O F C LIM ATO LO G IC AL STATIO N S

61

61 Climatological stations

-3 .0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

N ETW O R K O F AG R O M ETEO R O LO G IC AL STATIO N S

54

54 stations

N ETW O R K O F R AIN FALL STATIO N S

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

156156 stations countrywide out of original 600

Many stations closing down because Volunteers are not happy with“motivation”.

THE VOLTA BASIN

THE BASIN COVERS 6 COUNTRIES. VOLTA BASIN AUTHORITY formed to help regulate the efficient use of water resources within the basin.

Average yearly Rainfall over Northern Ghana ( 1971 to 2007)

Rainfall variability here can be as high as 400mm between seasons

Rainfall showing a decreasing trend over the years

High Incidences of drought around Kete-Krachi (1961-2007)

High Incidences of drought around southern Central, Western and Volta Regions, like , Ada,Kpetoe, Tsito, Cape Coast etc

High Incidences of drought to the Western parts of northern Ghana

High Incidences of drought around Nkwanta area.

Here high Incidences of drought covering most of the Western part of Ghana.(1961-2007) Areas around

Kete-Krachi, Southern Volta, Central and WesternRegions as well as Eastern Coasts are much affected(1961-2007)

Expected changes in temperature and rainfall for the Sudan and Guinea Savannah areas of Ghana_run by

GMet ( Ghana National Communication _IPCC)

• Baseline period is 1961-1990• Data used ; Daily rainfall in millimetres• Rainfall amount of less than 0.2 millimetres not

counted as a rainfall day.• Daily temperature degrees Celsius• A1B Scenario (TAR and AR4) i.e: rapid econ. growth,

quick spread of global technology, global pop of 9 billion in 2050 dwindling gradually thereafter, quick spread of new & efficient technology, a convergent world( income & way of life between regions)- SRES

• SRES= Special Report on Emission Scenarios

Sudan Savannah Temperature change/scenarios

Mean Temp. increase ranging from 0.5 to 5.0 from 2020 to 2080

Guinea Savannah Temperature change/scenarios

Baseline Mean Temp. Mean Temp. Change Climate Scenarios

Month T-Max. T-Min. T-Mean 2020 2050 2080 2020 2050 2080

Jan 35.0 18.9 26.9 0.6 2.0 4.1 27.5 28.9 31.0

Feb 36.9 22.0 29.4 0.7 2.2 4.2 30.1 31.6 33.6

Mar 37.0 24.1 30.6 0.7 2.1 4.2 31.3 32.7 34.8

Apr 35.3 24.4 29.9 0.6 2.3 4.5 30.5 32.2 34.4

May 33.5 23.5 28.5 0.6 2.2 4.4 29.1 30.7 32.9

Jun 31.1 22.3 26.7 0.5 1.9 3.8 27.2 28.6 30.5

Jul 29.7 21.8 25.7 0.5 1.7 3.5 26.2 27.4 29.2

Aug 29.4 21.7 25.5 0.5 1.8 3.4 26.0 27.3 28.9

Sep 30.2 21.5 25.8 0.5 1.6 3.2 26.3 27.4 29.0

Oct 32.5 21.7 27.1 0.5 1.6 3.4 27.6 28.7 30.5

Nov 34.5 20.2 27.3 0.6 2.0 3.9 27.9 29.3 31.2

Dec 34.4 18.4 26.4 0.6 2.0 4.0 27.0 28.4 30.4

Ann. 33.3 21.7 27.5 0.6 2.0 3.9 28.1 29.4 31.4

Temp change here between 0.6 and 4.5 from 2020 to 2080

Sudan Savannah Precipitation

Rainfall expected to decrease by 10 to 17% by 2080 in June to October

Guinea Savannah Precipitation

Rainfall to decrease even further by up to 25% from June to Sept in this Zone

Monthly Maximum Value of Daily Max Temp for Wa

Monthly Daily value of Daily Min Temp for Wa

Annual Count when Daily Minimum Temperature >20 degrees for Wa

Annual Total Precip in Wet days for Wa

Heavy Precipitation days (RR>20mm) for Wa

Challenges: database issues

Some amount of data digitized A lot more needs to be digitized Poor Meta database Incorporating data from Automatic

Observations from about 18 recently( 2011) installed AWSs

QC issues and missing data Incorporating data ( 18th Century) recently

recovered from the UK into database

MORE CHALLENGES

• Putting data in appropriate format for R to run a

difficulty

• Missing values >20% in each year implies no Indices? A limitation.

• Deciding Outliers can be a real difficulty; in the face of MCS (Mesoscale Convective

Systems) in West Africa.

URGENT NEED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADEQUATE HUMAN CAPITAL IN THE FIELD OF CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIES / RESEARCH AND CLIMATE MODELLING (DOWNSCALING ) , EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS ,IN GHANA.

BUILDING CREDIBLE DATABASES INCLUDING META DATA.

CRITICAL NEED FOR THE CALCULATION AND EXCHANGE OF RELEVANT CLIMATE INDICES IN THE WEST AFRICAN SUB- REGION.

WMO CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PLATFORM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF USER-FRIENDLY SOFTWARE FOR THE EXTRACTION OF RELEVANT CLIMATE INDICES.

GENDER MAINSTREAMING IN CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES.

RECOMMENDATIONS

THANK YOU• AYILARI-NAA JUATI• E:MAIL: A.JUATI@METEO.GOV.GH• TEL: +233 307012519

• ELIKEM SETSOAFIA• E:MAIL: E.SETSOAFIA@METEO.GOV.GH• TEL: +233 549617048