Report to WMO Expert Team 2.2 on Climate Monitoring

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Deke ArndtChief, Climate Monitoring Branch

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Jay Lawrimore sends his best regards

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Tasked to NCDC / Jay at the initial meeting

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

To aid capacity-building, provide resources on the ET2.2 web site to demonstrate global monitoring efforts

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Produce a pamphlet to support ET2.2 Outreach.

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Publish article to describe how BAMS SotC authorship is determined and how the document is published

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WMO Bulletin 57(2)

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

2008 Chapter Editors diverse organizationally and internationally

Dealing with the “problems” of increased content now!

Diamond: USA NOAA-NESDIS

Fogt: USA NOAA-NWS Levy: USA NOAA-OAR Richter-Menge, USA

Army CoE Thorne: UK Met Office Vincent, Met Service

of Canada Watkins, Australia

Bureau of Met

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Goal: Translate BAMS State of the Climate so that all six WMO languages are represented.

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Translations for 2008 document:◦ Abstract◦ Chapter

Introductions◦ All figure captions

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

NCDC

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

ECVs reported in the Annual BAMS State of the Climate Report for 2008

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

US CLIMAT messages

New GHCN version coming

Many internal improvements

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Mission: “monitor and assess the state of the climate”◦ Products and information, not necessarily datasets

Near the end of the pipeline … lots of work upstream from us:

Data & Observing Systems Research Product Development Data Ingest Quality Assurance

Also near the beginning of another pipeline.◦ Our work brings us into contact with stakeholders

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U.S. Report Global Report

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Issued each month, season (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) and year.

Each report (U.S. & Global) provides◦ Headlines◦ Narrative◦ Graphics◦ Insight into

components of the climate system

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Drought Wildfire Severe Weather Tropical Cyclones Winter Weather

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Global Report assesses the global / regional behavior of:◦ Surface Temperature

Land, Ocean and Both

◦ Precipitation◦ Sea Ice◦ ENSO (El Nino / La Nina)◦ Upper Atmospheric

Temperature

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Reorganization of:◦ U.S. National Priorities◦ NOAA’s Climate Services function◦ NCDC’s organization chart

Means that the “Climate Monitoring” function is much more closely tied to Climate Service, as well as traditional ties to Climate Science

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Will play out as NOAA’s climate services May play out as a lead in a National Climate

Service, should one occur Several options/plans, based upon the

Nation’s expressed needs/priorities Strong focus on regional and sectoral

issues

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Now designed to be served out so others can incorporate components into their reports.◦ RSS feed, Portals

Includes much more educational / informational material

Incorporates much more content from local/regional climatologists

Beginning to add focus to events and impacts, not just variables

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Narrative reports of major climate-scale occurrences◦ Drought◦ Heat◦ Floods◦ Severe Weather◦ Tropical Cyclones◦ Winter Weather

By necessity, this product has many editorial decisions

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

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Actual values (not just vs. normal) for any month, season, year since 1900.

Tulsa Springs since 1948.

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Provides time series of trends in variables

Also make maps (this map is “How has JFM changed since 1900?”)◦ Can click on a dot to

get the time-series for that dot.

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Some impacts of air pollution:◦ reduced visibility, respiratory

issues Pollutant types:

◦ Gaseous: ozone, SO2, NOXs◦ Particulates: soot, dust, smoke

ASI monitors stagnation component (buildup over time).◦ Does not monitor pollution

sources. Factors:

◦ Light winds (low horiz. dispersion)

◦ Stable lower atmosphere (prevents vertical escape)

◦ Lack of precipitation (to cleanse lower atmosphere).

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

How often does heat index exceed a threshold value at a particular station?

Values specific to the station’s overall climatology◦ (Texas will have a

higher threshold than Maine)

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

US Drought Monitor is an example of cross-community climate services◦ Ag + Water + etc. experts◦ Climatologists

US Drought Portal brings communities together around a phenomenon◦ http://www.drought.gov

Expressed needs: air quality issues and heat waves associated with drought.

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Joint effort: Canada, Mexico and the U.S.

Part of extended Canada-U.S. GEO collaboration

NADM Workshop: April 2010, Asheville, NC, USA. To explore international drought issues beyond North America

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

CEI = five indicators illustrate extremes in:◦ monthly mean maximum and minimum

temperature◦ extreme 1-day precipitation◦ the number of days with/without precipitation◦ the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

Area of the CONUS with extreme conditions is compared with the remainder of the CONUS to yield a fraction for a given period

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Notable upward CEI trend from 1970 to present

Mostly from max and min temps, 1-day precipitation and PDSI (drought)

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

CEI Annual Seasonal Recently added a tropical system

component, calculated for multiple seasons Additions and modifications are explained in

“A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index” (Gleason et al. 2008)

Underway: pilot project for southeast US. If successful, more regional applications expected.

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

Designed to capture status and changes of extreme and threshold behavior of the climate system

How often does something happen?

Is the frequency changing?

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

NACEM Field Definition: “Annual count/percent of days …”

No. of Frost Days … with daily min temp < 0°C

No. of Summer Days … with daily max temp > 25°C

No. of Icing Days …with daily max temp < 0°C

No. of Tropical Nights …with daily min temp > 20°C

Growing Season Length … between first 6-day span with daily avg temp >5°C and first 6-day span with avg temp <5°C

Much below average lows

… when daily min temp was < 10th percentile (%)

Much below average his … when daily max temp was < 10th percentile (%)

Much above average lows

… when daily min temp was > 90th percentile (%)

Much above average his … when daily max temp was > 90th percentile (%)

Greatest 5-day Rainfall Max rain falling in any consecutive 5-day period

Precip Intensity Index Amount that fell on days with precip

Length of Dry Spell Max # of consecutive days without precip

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NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

I wish you continued success

Deke ArndtDerek.Arndt@noaa.gov

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