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Results of the 2005 Business Trends Survey
Presentation by:Aurelio Carinci
ChairmanBusiness Trends 2005 Task Force
Committee members include:Wayne Borean (Nett Technologies)
Ed Dailey (GSP)Dick Davidson (Thombert)
Bill Harrison (Lift Technologies, Inc.)John Millonzi (Millonzi International)
Els Thermote (SMH)
ITA Fall MeetingWestin Mission Hills
October 29, 2005
1) What percentage increase in the use of integrated side shifters do you predict for the North American market by 2008? (17 total responses)
26-50%
29% (5 responses)
0-25%
18% (3 responses)
51-75%
24% (4 responses)
76-100%
29% (5 responses)
2) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways?
A. Exporting US produced products to China?
Average score – 4.3 (19 responses) (2004 = 3.6)
B. Partnering with Chinese forklift manufacturers to produce trucks in China?
Average score – 6.7 (19 responses) (2004 = 6.8)
C. Seeking parts suppliers from China?
Average score – 8.9 (19 responses) (2004 = 6.8)
D. Building trucks in China for the Chinese market?
Average score – 6.9 (19 responses) (NA)
3) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant impact, what will be the impact of Chinese-produced lift trucks on the North American market over the next 5 years?
B. Class 2 – Electric Motor Narrow Aisle Trucks
Average score – 4.3 (19 responses) (2003 = 3.4)A. Class 1 – Electric Motor Rider Trucks
Average score – 3.1 (19 responses) (2003 = 2.4)
C. Class 3 – Electric Motor Hand Trucks
Average score – 5.5 (17 responses) (2003 = 4.9)
D. Class 4 – Internal Combustion Engine Trucks- Cushion Tires Only
Average score – 5.6 (19 responses) (2003 = 5.1)
E. Class 5 – Internal Combustion Engine Trucks- Pneumatic Tires Only
Average score – 6.4 (21 responses) (2003 = 7.0)
F. Class 6 – Electric and Internal Combustion Engine Tow Tractors
Average score – 8.6 (19 responses) (NA)
4) Do you believe that fuel cells will be a significant share of the market? If so, when? (19 total responses)
They will be significant with in the next:
2 years
2-5 years
47% (9) (2004 = 40%)
They will not be significant within the next five years.
53% (10) (2004 = 60%)
0% (2004 = 0%)
5) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a strong shift, how much of a shift will there be away from IC powered trucks towards electric powered trucks in the North American market in the next five years?
Average score – 5.8 (19 responses) (2004 = 4.7)
6) Do you believe that low labor costs will drive significantly more ITA members to manufacture abroad? (17 total responses)
Yes 41% (7) No 59% (10)
7) On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being very important, how important are lower after sale maintenance costs on new forklift models that your company will sell in the future?
Average score – 8.7 (19 responses)
8) Do you foresee a trend in the next five years in which diagnostic systems that are currently available only to authorized dealers will become available to anyone involved in repair? (19 total responses)
Substantially Greater Availability Is Likely
37% (7)
Substantially Greater Availability Is Not Likely
63% (12)
9) With regard to procurement practices and outsourcing, please state the percentage of your business, currently and in five years, which can be characterized in the following ways?
A. What percentage of your components are you buying and assembling yourself?
B. What percentage of complete subassembly units are you buying from suppliers?
C. What percent of your components and subassemblies are you manufacturing?
2005 Average- 48.8% (17 responses) (2003 = 56%)2010 Average- 48.6% (17 responses) (2003 = 55%)
2005 Average- 55.6% (17 responses) (2003 = 35%)2010 Average- 56.3% (16 responses) (2003 = 44%)
2005 Average- 23.2% (17 responses) (2003 = 61%)2010 Average- 30.7% (15 responses) (2003 = 48%)
10) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, how likely is it that supplies of raw materials (e.g., steel, plastics, rubber) will impact manufacturing in the next few years?
Average score = 7.6 (16 responses)
11) Please list the top three considerations that you feel will most impact the sourcing of products in the next five years.
1. Cost (14) -Cost of oil, steel and other raw materials (5) -Cost (4) -Freight cost (2) -Labor cost (2) -Cost of manufacture (1)2. Quality (4)3. Availability/Quantity of available components/Global presence for key products, components, assemblies (4)4. China/Relationship between U.S. and China/China and India manufacturing (3)5. Exchange rate/Strength of the U.S Dollar (3)6. Economic conditions (2)7. Emerging markets (1)8. Globalization of companies (1)9. Transportation/delivery (1)10. Homeland security restrictions (1)11. Engineering support (1)12. Ability to provide more value-added products (1)13. Ability to demonstrate capacity, flexibility and grow with us (1)14. Supplier ability to hold productive schedules (1)15. Consolidations within industries (1)16. Internet buying (1)
12) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that your company will use reverse internet auctions as a purchasing tool in the next year?
Average score = 3.8 (17 responses) (2004 = 3.5)
13) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that your major customers will increase the use of reverse internet auctions for sourcing?
A. Lift trucks?
Average score – 5.3 (19 responses) (2004 = 4.5)
B. Parts?
Average score – 5.8 (19 responses) (2004 = 4.1)
14) Do you believe there is a value for your company to have suppliers who can supply total systems (e.g., hydraulics and controls) in the future? (17 total responses)
Yes 100% (17) No 0%(2004 = 62%) (2004 = 38%)
15) Will your supplier base substantially increase, substantially decrease, or stay approximately the same over the next five years? (17 total responses)
Substantially Increase
11% (2)
Substantially Decrease
24% (4)
Stay approximately the same
65% (11)
16) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being of no importance and 10 being of great importance, how important to your purchasing decisions is the availability of engineering support from your supplier?
Average score = 8.2 (18 responses)
17) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles in 2006 and 2010?
A. Forks and attachments
2006 Average- 2.9 (16 responses) (2003 = 1.9)2010 Average- 4.8 (16 responses) (2003 = 3.2)
B. Use of fork positioning2006 Average- 3.3 (16 responses) (2003 = 1.8)2010 Average- 4.5 (15 responses) (2003 = 3.0)
C. Use of sideshifting
2006 Average- 4.0 (16 responses) (2003 = 4.1)2010 Average- 5.4 (15 responses) (2003 = 6.2)
D. Sideshifting and positioning together
2006 Average- 3.6 (16 responses) (2003 = 1.5)2010 Average- 5.1 (15 responses) (2003 = 2.7)
E. Use of these technologies in high volume trucks
2006 Average- 4.1 (16 responses) (2003 = 3.1)2010 Average- 6.3 (15 responses) (2003 = 4.9)
18) What percentage of trucks will use single valve technology to control multiple functions in 2006 and 2010?
2006 Average- 21.4% (11 responses) (2003 = 23%)2010 Average- 45.7% (14 responses) (2003 = 31%)
19) With regard to batteries and chargers, what percentage of trucks will use fast charging and 80 volt batteries in 2006 and 2010?
A. Fast charging
2006 Average- 9% (14 responses)2010 Average- 33% (15 responses)
B. 80 volt batteries
2006 Average- 6% (14 responses)2010 Average- 15% (15 responses)
C. Will international standards be developed in each area? (17)
yes 65% (11) (2003 = 47%)no 35% (6) (2003 = 52%)
D. Will there be standards harmonization for batteries, chargers and industrial trucks? (16)
yes 50% (8) (2003 = 41%)no 50% (8) (2003 = 58%)
20) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being highly likely, what is the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles?
A. Driveline components (including transmissions and axles)
Average score – 6.6 (19 responses) (2004 = 5.6)
B. Electric motors
Average score – 8.2 (19 responses) (2004 = 8.0)
C. Internal combustion engines
Average score – 7.5 (19 responses)
D. Masts, uprights, attachments
Average score – 6.5 (17 responses)
E. Brakes
Average score – 6.2 (19 responses)
21) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most likely, what is the likelihood of significant improvements in the quality and consistency of LPG fuel in the next five years?
Average score = 5.3 (19 responses)
22) What do you believe the trend will be regarding the use of each of the following electric motor technologies between 2006 and 2010?
A. AC (19 total responses)
Substantial Increase 95% (18) (2004 = 30%)Substantial Decrease 5% (1) (2004 = 30%)Approximately same 0% (2004 = 40%)
B. Brushless DC (18 total responses)
Substantial Increase 22% (4) (2004 = 25%)Substantial Decrease 17% (3) (2004 = 40%)Approximately same 61% (11) (2004 = 35%)
C. Separately Excited (17 total responses)
Substantial Increase 12% (2) (2004 = 5%)Substantial Decrease 70% (12) (2004 = 65%)Approximately same 18% (3) (2004 = 30%)
D. Series (17 total responses) Substantial Increase 6% (1) (2003 = 23%)Substantial Decrease 82% (14) (2003 = 64%)Approximately same 12% (2) (2003 = 12%)
23) With regard to electro-hydraulic controls for IC and battery four-wheel trucks, what percentage of each do you anticipate will be using electro-hydraulic controls in 2006 and 2010?
A. IC trucks
2006 Average- 16.2% (15 responses)2010 Average- 41% (15 responses)
B. Battery four-wheel trucks
2006 Average- 20.6% (14 responses)2010 Average- 47.6% (16 responses)
24) Will the need to adapt to different sizes of operators impact operator control heights on walking or stand-up riding fork trucks? (19 total responses)
Yes 74% (14) No 26% (5)
25) With regard to hydraulics, will there be a movement towards harmonization of standard operating pressures among European, Japanese and American manufacturers? (19 total responses)
Yes 74% (14) No 26% (5)
26) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being very important, how important to you is the ability to purchase components or systems that meet the regulations of more than one country or jurisdiction?
A. Compliance throughout North America
Average score – 9.0 (18 responses)
B. Compliance in North America and Europe
Average score – 8.8 (18 responses)
C. Compliance in North America and Asia
Average score – 7.3 (18 responses)
D. Compliance worldwide
Average score – 7.7 (19 responses)
27) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being extremely important, how important is participation by Associate Members:
A. In ITA Spring and Fall Meetings?
Average score – 7.6 (19 responses)
B. In GEC activities?
Average score – 7.1 (17 responses)
C. In Lawyers Committee activities?
Average score – 7.0 (16 responses)
D. In Statistics Committee activities?
Average score – 6.0 (19 responses)
E. In Canada Committee activities?
Average score – 5.6 (17 responses)
28) Please indicate if the following individuals in your company were consulted in answering these questions (check as many as were contacted):
Chief Marketing Manager yes = 13
Chief Technical Officer yes = 9
Other yes = 13
Results of the 2005 Business Trends Survey
Presentation by:Aurelio Carinci
ChairmanBusiness Trends 2005 Task Force
Committee members include:Wayne Borean (Nett Technologies)
Ed Dailey (GSP)Dick Davidson (Thombert)
Bill Harrison (Lift Technologies, Inc.)John Millonzi (Millonzi International)
Els Thermote (SMH)
ITA Fall MeetingWestin Mission Hills
October 29, 2005
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