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RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 1 http://www.rivm.nl/fair
Michel den Elzen, Paul Lucas and
Marcel Berk
National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 2 http://www.rivm.nl/fair
To explore and evaluate the environmental and abatement costs implications of possible future international climate policy regimes for differentiation of mitigation commitments
The model is not made to promote any particular regime, but to allow for comparing regimes in consistent and transparent way
NB: Developed to support long-term policy development, but also used for analysing near-
term policy issues Developed to support Dutch climate policy, but used / available for other Parties as well.
Objective FAIR 2.0
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 3 http://www.rivm.nl/fair
Contents: links “differentiation of commitments” to “adequacy of commitmentsbased on established science (IPCC) includes many proposed regimes options includes emission trading and costs
Form:PC computer modelgeographical user interface relatively simple to use Interactive
Features of FAIR
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 4 http://www.rivm.nl/fair
Some proposals for climate change regimes Brazilian Proposal (Brazil / RIVM)*
Multi-criteria (CICERO)
Multi-stage (RIVM)*
Contraction & Convergence (Global Commons Institute)*
Global Compromise (Benito Müller)*
Multi-Sector Convergence (ECN/Cicero)
(global) Triptych approach (UU)*
Technological convergence (Tol)
(Convergence in) Emission-Intensities (targets)*
Growth cap index (Ellerman, M IT)
Jacoby rule (ability to pay) (MIT)*
Soft landing (IEPE)
Sectoral commitments / sectoral CDM
SD-PAMs (University of Cape Town)
* Green = included in FAIR 2.0
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 5 http://www.rivm.nl/fair
Strategy: different models for different target groups General Public: web model version:
aims: orientation on the issue / education / capacity building conditions: for free; no commercial use; no technical support; no
publications without consent RIVMPolicy Advisors: full model version (no access to code)
aim: support other Parties in policy analysis conditions: on a case by case basis; licence agreement; limited support;
no commercial use; no publication without consent RIVMResearch institutes: full model (access to code)
aim: co-development of the model; scientific analysis / publications conditions: selected network partner; collaboration agreement; contribution
to development of model; no commercial use
FAIR model versions
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Global emission profile
Regional emissions targets
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Climate assessmentmodel
Per capita Convergence
Multi-stageapproach
emission intensity system
CLIMATE MODEL
Global emission profile
Abatement costs & permit price
DATASETS
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Mitigation costs & Emissions trade
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
Historicalemissions
BrazilianProposal
Triptych approach
Baselinescenario
Emissionsprofile
MACs
FAIR 2.0 model
Global emission reduction objective
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Regions in FAIR 2.0
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Datasets FAIR 2.0- internet version
Historical emissions (1765-1995): CDIAC (only CO2)
EDGAR/HYDE (all non-CO2 GHGs)
Baseline scenario IMAGE 2.2 IPCC SRES scenarios IMAGE-POLES scenario
Emission profiles two global GHG emission profiles (550 CO2-eq and 650 CO2-eq.)
Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) curves MACs CO2: energy model (TIMER 1.0 - IMAGE)
MACs non-CO2: GECS (European Commission)
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 9 http://www.rivm.nl/fair
Global emission profile
Regional emissions targets
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Climate assessmentmodel
Per capita Convergence
Multi-stageapproach
emission intensity system
CLIMATE MODEL
Global emission profile
Abatement costs & permit price
DATASETS
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Mitigation costs & Emissions trade
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
Historicalemissions
BrazilianProposal
Baselinescenario
Emissionsprofile
MACs
Emissions allocation model of FAIR internet
Global emission reduction objective
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 10 http://www.rivm.nl/fair
Climate regimes included in FAIR 2.0Brazilian proposal approach * Multi-Stage (RIVM) * Contraction & Convergence (GCI) * CSE convergence * Global Compromise (Muller) * Grandfathering * Multi-criteria convergenceJacoby rule (MIT)Emissions Intensity Targets approach * Triptych approach (Utrecht/NWS)
* Included in FAIR internet version
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Brazilian Proposal distribute emission reductions Annex I based on regional contribution to temperature increase due to
their historical emissions (from 1890) Global application with participation threshold (per capita income levels, and/or per capita emissions) Our implementation => Brazilian Proposal approach
Policy choices (in FAIR 2.0 internet version ): Participation threshold Time frames:
start-date (1765, 1890, 1950, 1990)
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Multi-Stage approachMulti-stage Approach (RIVM):
a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules Berk and den Elzen (2001), Climate Policy
Four stages (for non-Annex I):
Stage 1. No constraint
Stage 2. Intensity targets (threshold 1)
Stage 3. Stabilisation emissions (threshold 2)
Stage 4. Emission reduction targets (Annex I)
Policy choices: Threshold options: per capita income, per capita emissions Stabilisation period Burden-sharing options: income, emissions, per capita
emissions/income, etc.
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Multi-Stage approach
Gradual participation and different type of commitments
Example for S550e:– threshold 1: 20% ’90 Annex I per capita income– threshold 2: 50% ‘90 Annex I per capita income – 5-year stabilisation emissions – contribution to reductions using burden-sharing key p.c. emissions
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 14 http://www.rivm.nl/fair
Global emission profile
Regional emissions targets
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Climate assessmentmodel
Per capita Convergence
Multi-stageapproach
emission intensity system
CLIMATE MODEL
Global emission profile
Abatement costs & permit price
DATASETS
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Mitigation costs & Emissions trade
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
Historicalemissions
BrazilianProposal
Baselinescenario
Emissionsprofile
MACs
Costs model of FAIR internet version
Global emission reduction objective
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 15 http://www.rivm.nl/fair
Abatement costs model
Function:
1.To calculate abatement costs (multi-gas)
2.To calculate the buyers and sellers on the international permit market
3.To distribute the global emission reduction objective over the different regions, gases and sectors following a least-cost approach, making use of the flexible Kyoto mechanisms.
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on the basis of Marginal Abatement Cost curves (MAC): 6 GHGs, 11 sectors and 17 world regions;
MAC curves only represent direct costs, there is no direct link to GDP losses
Assumption is made of international emission trading: full trading in case regions participate; limited trading for non-participants (CDM)
Methodology
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Costs as % of GDP 550 CO2-eq vs. 650 CO2-eq.
Example: S550e leads to much higher abatement costs than the S650e
(equivalent to 0.4% versus 0.05% of world GDP in 2025) Costs are subject to considerable uncertainty (only baseline)
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Regional costs under C&C 2050 (S550e)
Buyers and sellers on the market India, Africa and China sellers; Rest buyers
Large differences costs Low-income non-Annex I regions gains for most regimes (up to 2%)
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