Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 ESPON MC 5th December 2013 Vilnius

Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050

ESPON MC5th December 2013 Vilnius

Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050

Andreu Ulied, MCRIT, Lead Partner

ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050

ESPON MC5th December 2013 Vlinius

ET2050 Consortium

From Project Specifications:

The ESPON Monitoring Committee, DG Regio and the ESPON Coordination Unit wish to start a territorial vision-building process that involves relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level,having 2050 as time horizon

Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)

Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)

ET2050 Methodology

ET2050 Forecast Models

Demography

MULTIPOLES (2010-2030)Cohort-component, hierarchical, multiregional, supranational model of population dynamics (up to 2030)

ESPON at NUTS2  IOM

Economy MASST3 (2010-2030) Econometric: social, macroeconomic andTerritorial (up to 2030)

ESPON at NUTS2 POLIMI

TransportMOSAIC (2010-2030)Integrated modal split and traffic assignment based on TRANSTOOLS OD trip matrices(up to 2030)

EU27 at NUTS2 MCRIT

Land-useMETRONAMICA (2010-2050)Spatial and dynamic land use model that Uses constrained cellular automata to allocate land-uses (up to 2050)

EU27 at Cells 1 km2 RIKS

Integrated SASI (2010-2050)Dynamic System (up to 2050)

ESPON and Western Balkans at NUTS3

S&W

Population Change 2010-2030 by MULTIPOLES

Population: from 514 to 530 inh.

GDP Growth 2010-2030 (Baseline) by MASST3

GDP a.a.: 1,89 %45 regions bellow 1,00 %

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Germany Trade in M€

export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27

Trade by companies located in Germany (M€)

EUROSTAT

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

200.000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Spain Trade in M€

export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27

Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)

Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030

Loosing Population

Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030

Loosing Population and

growing less that EU average

Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030

Loosing Population

Loosing Population and

growing less that EU average

Growing less that EU average

Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030

Loosing Population

Loosing Population

Loosing Population and

growing less that EU average

Growing less that EU average

Growing more that EU average

Increasing Polarisation on Global Gateways

Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030

A

European Territorial Strategy A : Promotion of Global Cities

B

European Territorial Strategy B: Promotion of Networks of Cities

C

European Territorial Strategy C: Promotion of Rural and Peripheral Regions

Scenarios 2030, the Crisis Aftermath

Roberto Camagni, POLIMIESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050

4rd December 2013 Vlinius

Summary of assumptions in the scenarios

• “Baseline scenario: No change in economic fundamentals and structure; no change in policies

• A: “Megas” scenario: Market driven scenario; budget reduced for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in European large cities.

• B: “Cities” scenario: Present welfare system reinforced; budget maintained for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in second rank cities.

• C: “Regions” scenario: Strong public welfare system; budget significantly increased for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in rural and cohesion area

21

22

Conclusions on aggregate GDP growth (2030)

• New 12 countries grow more with respect to Old 15 countries, but less than before.

• The B “Cities” scenario is the most expansionary: territorial capital is better exploited than in the other scenarios

• New 12 countries grow less in the C “Regions” scenario. .

Conclusions on Regional Disparities in the Baseline

23

.05

.1.1

5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year

Total Theil index Between Country Theil indexWithin Country Theil index

Total regional disparities willincrease

In the past 20 years convergence among EU countries could more than offset increases in intra-national disparities

This will not happen in the future (and is already visible during the present crisis)

Conclusions on National Disparities in the Baseline

24

Eurostat

MASST3

0.135

0.140

0.145

0.150

0.155

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Baseline scenario

Megas scenario

Cities scenario

Regions scenario

Total Disparities in Scenarios

“Cities” Scenario is the most cohesive! ”Megas” Scenario is less cohesive

Tot

al D

ispa

ritie

s

A “megas”

B “cities”

C “regions”

Between Countries Disparities in the scenarios

0.084

0.086

0.088

0.090

0.092

0.094

0.096

0.098

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Baseline scenario

Megas scenario

Cities scenario

Regions Scenario

C “regions”

B “cities” A “megas”

Inside Countries Disparities (Theil Index by Scenario) )

0.040

0.045

0.050

0.055

0.060

0.065

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Baseline scenario

Megas scenario

Cities scenario

Regions scenario

“Regions” scenario is the most cohesive, as expected, followed by the “Cities”

C “regions”

B “cities”

A “megas”

Sensitivity analysis on the Baseline Scenario

Baseline is not meant to be the most likely scenario.

A sensitivity analysis was run, changing single exogenous assumptions inside the MASST model:

1. Higher internal inflation rates in New 12 Countries with respect to Old 15: higher control on wages, productivity external competitiveness

2. Increased tax rates in “vicious” countries (too high public debt): lower growth potential

3. Higher FDI increase in New 12 countries: higher growth? Not proved: new investments generate higher imports)

Sensitivity analysis: lower inflation rates in NMCs

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

2012 2030

Decreased inflation in New 12 member countries

baseline T

baseline Tbc

baseline Twc

Experiment T

Experiment Tbc

Experiment Twc

Note: Inflation in New 12 countries is lowered from 5% (baseline) to 3%. Baseline assumption for Old15 member countries is 2.5%.

This lever has strong effects on growth rates in NMCs; new assunptions generate a strong decrease in inter-national disparities and a light increase in tot. disparities

------ Dotted lines refer to the Baseline Scenario

Total reg. disparities

Between-country

Within country disparities

Higher taxation in wide-public debt countries

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

2012 2030

Increased tax rate in vicious countries

baseline T

baseline Tbc

baseline Twc

Experiment T

Experiment Tbc

Experiment Twc

This measure generates higher inter-national disparities ----- Baseline scenario

Total disparities

Within-country

Between-country

Scenarios 2050

Klaus Spiekermann, S&WESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050

4rd December 2013 Vlinius

Exploratory Scenarios & Variants for 2010-2050

Spatial orientation ofthe scenarios

Extreme Framework conditions

0Baseline

1Economic

decline

2Technologic

progress

3Energy/ClimateCosts

Promotion of global regions A0 A1 A2 A3

Promotion of urban regions B0 B1 B2 B3

Promotion of rural and peripheral regions

C0 C1 C2 C3

Baseline Scenario

The

A (MEGAs)

B (Cities)

C (Regions)

1.0 %

0.5

0.25%

of total EUStructuralFunds

European Funds Allocation across NUTS3

Difference toBaseline Scenario(%) 2051

Scenario A:GDP per capitaDifferenceto BaselineScenario2051

Difference toBaseline Scenario(%) 2051

Scenario B:GDP per capitaDifferenceto BaselineScenario2051

Difference toBaseline Scenario(%) 2051

Scenario C:GDP per capitaDifferenceto BaselineScenario2051

Regional disparities reduced by funds allocation

C2

B2

GDP growth depens on Framework Conditions

C2

B2

C2

B2

Summary comparison

Scenarios Policy Comparison

Participatory process towards Vision 2050

ValerieBiot, IGEATESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050

4rd December 2013 Vlinius

VISION Scenarios

Scientifically-driven exercice

Politically-driven process

Inspiring policy making by territorial foresight

Process towards the European Territorial Vision

• Scientific input from the scenario exercise

• Review of European and World strategies & policies

• Interaction with ESPON MC

• Interaction with Stakeholders

Brussels, 28 September 2012 Kraków, 29-30 November 2011 Aalborg , 13-14 June 2012

Paphos, 4-6 December 2012

ESPON Monitoring Committee Workshops

Dublin, 12-14 June 2013

A B

C

A B

C

A European Territorial Vision 2050

Carlo Sessa, ISISESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050

4rd December 2013 Vlinius

Outline of the European Territorial Vision

• Values and policy paradigms

• Europe in the World

• Europe and its Neighborhoods

• Changes for Europe as a whole

• The Future of the European Territory

• European Territorial Governance

2050 Vision: summing up framework elementsNew borders of the EU: Deep and sustainable democracy in an enlarged EU andEFTA space

Co-development with Neighbouring Countries (namely the Euro-Mediterranean)

Technology induced changes: «everywhere connectivity» will change our social, learning and work, manufacturing, energy, daily habits and mobility towards more flexible time use and polycentric landscapes

Demographic, economic and social changes: ageing everywhere in the world, except in Africa (especially SSA), deceleration of growth and trade of goods, more services & intangibles, «smartphone»-centred lifestyle, socio-ecological transition towards green and blue economy, within Europe, a more educated & mobile & Creative workforce and diversified jobs.

Energy, Transport and climate changes: «low» but not «post-carbon» Europe; smart and sustainable transport; adaptation to climate change (mitigation is not enough).

2050 Vision: summing up territorial key elements

EU governance changes: EU economic recovery heading to more integration («out of need, not out of love»), but with a lean model

Paradigm shifts: qualitative more than quantitative growth and productivity concepts, efficient spending on education, health and other territorial services (outcomes measured with beyond GDP indicators). Convergence of GDP is no more the «totem»/paradigm indicator, territorial efficiency/diversity and territorial cohesion objectives are the new totems.

Polycentric development: More connectivity within and across different urban regions’ layers: large cities (less «Pentagon-centric» network), medium-to-small networks of cities, compact cities. Urban sprawl is halted. More «rurban regions», but also revitilized «bioregions»

2050 Vision: summing up territorial key elements

A new Cohesion Strategy:

•Complementarity between EU territorial cohesion funds and other EU solidarity funds (to prevent financial crisis, to enable energy interdependence, EU border management solidarity).

•Place-based approach in the different functional regions of Europe, within and across the national borders.

•Territorial capital and European public goods agenda, based on high-level policy negotiation and agreed criteria of EU-wide relevance, place-based nature and verifiability (with “beyond GDP” impact assessment indicators)

Which EU Cohesion Policy after 2020?

EU Cohesion Policy Reform after 2020

Place-based territorial approach

(too complicated for the EU level to

master)?

Sectoral approach for funding & monitoring

infrastructure (e.g. energy, transport) and social (e.g.education, health) investments?

Purely «solidarity» approach

(EU funding MS to compensate for extra-costs of

implementing EU common priorities)?

How to blend these approaches in the context of a more integrated EU?

EU has to cope with global and territorial challenges, while closing the democratic gap between the EU and the European citizens

2020

2030

2050

A « New Generation » of Cohesion Policies

Jacek Szlachta, WSEESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050

4rd December 2013 Vlinius

Europe will successfully manage to overcome negative trends ahead (rural depopulation, growing regional disparities, not efficient policy making...) and valorisethe assets of the different cities and regions

The Vision for 2050 assumes a Successful Europe

EU Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 is necessary to achieve key values proposed by Territorial Vision 2050: Deep and sustainable democracy, Sustainable development, Well being and quality of life, Solidarity, Territorial efficiency, Territorial cohesion.

Cohesion Policy matters to achieve the Vision

• Using the concept “more for less” – declining budget and widening scope of intervention (competitiveness and cohesion)

• Facing growing disparities after 2008 – weak and peripheral regions more fragile to external shocks than strong and central regions

But… Cohesion Policy in 2014-2020 (1):

• Observing different development trajectories of European Union during economic crises Northern, Southern, Western and Eastern

• Testing new territorial tools concerning urban policy, local development, Territorial Impact Assessment etc.

But… Cohesion Policy in 2014-2020 (2):

• Facing critical development in neighbouring countries from south and east (Frontex and partnership) what impacts border regions

• Facing growing administrative burden for implementing authorities

• Being unable to establish necessary relations with intervention within second pillar of Common Agriculture Policy

But… Cohesion policy in 2014-2020 (3):

•Regional and National institutional empowerment •Place-based focus & open endogenous development

•Sensitivity to macro-economic cycles

•Focus on local and regional infrastructure

•Land-Use regulatory instruments in vulnerable areas

•Productive investments in Neighboring Countries

How Cohesion policies may be reformed in the long-run?

COTER 9th October 2013DGREGIO EC, 25 June 2013

European Parliament, 25 June 2013

Stakeholders, 11 October 2013

Mrs. Hubner, 26 February 2013 22 Nov 2012 in Warsaw

European Commission, Parliament and Committee of Regions

“Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit

-and this is what I call adventure”

Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”

Further information:

www.espon.eu

www.et2050.eu (working documents)