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Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties & Progress to Targets Justin Goodwin (Aether) Glen Thistlethwaite (Ricardo-AEA) Stuart Sneddon (Ricardo-AEA) Special Thanks to John Landrock (SG) for input to Scottish GHGi over the years. NESAC, Scottish Government Victoria Quay, Leith, Edinburgh. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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© Ricado plc 2012
Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties & Progress to Targets
Justin Goodwin (Aether)Glen Thistlethwaite (Ricardo-AEA)Stuart Sneddon (Ricardo-AEA)
Special Thanks to John Landrock (SG) for input to Scottish GHGi over the years.
28 November 2012
NESAC, Scottish Government
Victoria Quay, Leith, Edinburgh
2
What does this presentation cover?
Overview
Trends and Changes
By NC sector
Uncertainties
Changes and Improvements
Where you can find more information
3
Background: UK and DA GHG inventory and other datasets
UK UNFCCC (Kyoto Protocol) GHG inventory : This presentation
Embedded Emissions (e.g. Scotland's carbon footprint )– All greenhouse gas emissions at home and abroad from the production, transport and use of goods and services consumed by the Scottish
economy.
Environmental Accounts– Emissions from UK citizens activity in the UK and aboard.
4
Background: The UK and DA GHG inventory: Aims and Objectives
Our aim:– Deliver a strong, accurate evidence base on GHG emissions.
• Meet reporting & monitoring commitments (UNFCCC, EU, CCC, SG, Wales & NI) • to inform climate change policy development and implementation.
To do this:– Use UK statistics and bottom up datasets (e.g. EU ETS, other industry reporting).– Use available DA (Scotland)-specific data where possible - this is limited, and there
are also some constraining factors (e.g. links to UK datasets – more of this later),– Use UK wide mapping datasets to derive some LA, DA estimates
We believe that it’s a pretty good inventory, but it’s not perfect:– Year-to-year uncertainties are high compared to long time-series trend uncertainties– For DA’s (Scotland) need access more detailed data to help improve the inventory and
make it more accurate and sensitive to policy impacts.– there are systems (improvement programme) in place to fix highest priorities, and
plenty of examples of us using new data to challenge / improve the current dataset.
Please let us know if you know of more data / research to improve the accuracy of the Scottish GHG Inventory.
5
Background: UK GHG Inventory – How the GHGI is run.
DECC,
SG, WG, NI DoEDefra,
SG, WG, NI DoE
National Atmospheric
Emissions Inventories
GHG inventories:
UK, Scotland, Wales,
Northern Ireland
Aether & Ricardo-
AEA
Government
Sector andpollutant experts
Energy use
Transport
Industry
Waste
Agriculture
LULUCF
Sectors Pollutants
Outputs Energy and
Emissions Mapping
GHG inventories (Annual EU and UNFCCC and KP reporting)
Air quality pollutant inventories (Annual CLRTAP, NECD, etc.)
DA inventories, OT and CD inventories, Local inventories
AQ and GHG projections
End user inventories, uncertainties, etc.
Local Authority CO2
Inventories
GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases
AQ pollutants: Acidifying pollutants,
VOCs, Particulate Matter, Metals, POPs
GHGI Single National Entity:
Inventory Agency :
Rothamsted Research
CEH
Ricardo-AEA, Aether, Enviros
6
Background: UK GHG Inventory – National System (1)
• Single National Entity: UK Government Department of Energy & Climate
Change (DECC). Overall responsibility for the UK NIS.
• Inventory Agency: Consortium led by Ricardo-AEA, including Aether.
Contracted by DECC to manage the inventory compilation, reporting and
Quality Assurance system.
• Agriculture Inventory: Rothamsted Research.
• LULUCF Inventory: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.
Key organisations tasked with delivering UK GHGI to EU Monitoring Mechanism and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, using methods consistent with IPCC guidance, on time for submission to EUMM by 15th January each year (so the 1990-2011 GHGI data will be submitted on 15/1/2013 to the EU, then to UNFCCC on 15/4/2013.
7
Background: UK GHG Inventory – National System (2)
National Inventory Steering Committee
• Panel of representatives from Government Departments, regulatory agencies,
other organisations, including Scottish Government.
i. Prioritise & implement inventory improvements.
ii. Review the UK GHGI prior to data submission to UNFCCC.
iii. Communicate GHGI issues across Government.
iv. Includes representatives of regional and local Government.
• Meets twice a year (today!), managed by DECC.
• The UK NIS operates an inventory improvement programme that integrates
national-level and sub-national level priorities.
8
8
Background: DA (Scottish) GHG Inventory Compilation Approach
N IRELAND GHG
INVENTORY
WALES GHG
INVENTORY
UK GHGIQuality SystemData, methods, reviewConsultation, funding
Data acquisition Inventory Compilation
(spreadsheets)UK GHGI
(database)
Data from Scotland, Wales, England,
N Ireland
SCOTLAND GHG
INVENTORY
ENGLAND GHG
INVENTORY
9
9
Background: DA and LA Inventory Compilation (1)
We adopt the basic principle that:
Sum of DA or LA inventories = UK Inventory
...for each source and each pollutant.
Incorporates benefits of the UK GHGI:
UK inventories subject to rigorous QA/QC, reliable time series, has been developed
over 20+ years of research into UK sources.
UK GHGI is a resource of emission factors, many activity data, conversion factors etc.
(Can fill gaps in local knowledge.)
X Constrains the DA inventory data to align with the UK GHGI totals. e.g. sum of DA
energy use in each economic sector is constrained to that presented in DUKES.
10
10
Background: DA Inventory Compilation Method (2)
“Bottom-up” estimates for sources where we have comprehensive local data, such
as:
Industrial point sources
Road transport
Domestic flight data
“Top-down” or modelled estimates for sources where we DON’T have comprehensive
local data, such as:
Combustion sources in domestic, commercial, small-scale industry and public administration
sectors (e.g. we use the DEMScot model and Scottish Housing Condition Survey data to
inform Scotland share of UK-reported domestic emissions)
Waste and sewage treatment and disposal emissions
F-gas emissions from refrigeration and other sources
11
11
Background: DA Inventory Compilation Method (3)
• Use local parameters such as population, employment, housing condition surveys
(domestic), industrial production statistics.
• Commercial confidentiality limits energy use data – cannot access detailed local AND
sector-specific data. Overall local data is available, but not split out by sector.
• Modelling approach to derive estimates:
o Metered fuels (gas, electricity) greater accuracy than non-metered fuels (oils, solid
fuels).
o DA/LA estimates for these sources are higher in uncertainty, and inventory data are
less sensitive to policy impacts.
12
Background: Data Sources (1)
• Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DECC),
EUETS
• Pollution Inventories (EA, SEPA,NI DoE)
• Transport data (DfT, CAA, shipping data)
• Companies & Trade Associations (e.g. UKPIA,
BCA, Corus)
• Other statistical sources (ONS, ISSB, BGS…)
• Farming surveys and UK-wide emission factor
research (Rothamsted)
• Countryside Surveys (more details from
CEH…)
• DECC Sub-national Energy Statistics (DECC)
• Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory (SEPA)
• Vehicle km data & DVLA data (DfT)
• Scottish Housing Condition Survey data and
DEMScot model (SG)
• Individual companies (e.g. Alcan, Ineos, GSK
Montrose, ExxonMobil..)
• Population, employment, industrial production
data (ONS)
• Gas network demand, gas composition and
leakage data (Scotia Gas)
• Waste water statistics (Scottish Water)
• Waste management statistics (SEPA, Defra)
13
Background: Data Sources (2) Energy: (Business, Public, Residential, Agricultural machinery)
– Sub-national energy statistics: Limited compared to UK energy statistics: Industry and Commercial, Agriculture, Residential• greater uncertainty and less detail than the UK energy statistics:– no “Scottish energy balance”. Fairly
good gas data, but NO solid or liquid fuel data. • Road transport based on fuel sales and vehicle km. (see later in presentation).• EUETS data for some large energy users.
Industrial process (Industrial Process, Business)– plant operator estimates reported to environmental agencies e.g. Integrated Pollution Prevention and
Control (IPPC) & EUETS. – Cement and lime kilns, iron and steel works, aluminium and other non-ferrous metal plant, chemical
industries;
Agriculture (Livestock & crops & soils)– Annual survey data & UK emission factors : arable production and livestock numbers;
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) – regional survey data of land use, emission factors and, modelled to calculate GHG emissions and carbon
fluxes between sources and sinks;
Waste– modelled emissions from the UK GHG inventory, split out across the DAs based on local authority waste
disposal activity reporting - local shares of UK activity for recycling, landfilling, incineration and other treatment and disposal options.
UK statistical data and improvements will impact upon Scottish GHG data, e.g. recent revisions to energy balance data on fuel use in sectors such as: refineries, petrochemicals…also have a large impact in Scotland.
14
Background: GHG Inventory: Scope GHG Inventories report annual emissions of all anthropogenic GHG emissions.
Annual: 1990 – 2010 (reported in 2012) = 2 year lag.
Sources: NAEI source/activity categories (370) – IPCC (100) – National
Communication (9)
• Gases: “Kyoto basket of six” GHGs: Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs,
PFCs, SF6
• Carbon dioxide: mainly from combustion of fuels in different economic sectors, industrial processes, LULUCF sources and sinks
• Methane: waste, agriculture
• Nitrous oxide: industrial processes, agriculture
• F-gases: industrial processes & AC/Refrigeration
Excluded:
– Short-cycle biocarbon in the GHGI (e.g. CO2 from plant biomass but not CH4)
– International shipping and aviation – “memo items” for DA estimates.
– DA: offshore oil & gas exploration and production off-shore facilities
15
Background: DA National Communication categories
Agriculture– Livestock, Soils, crops & field burning, energy use in Agriculture Forestry and Fishing
Business– Energy use (combustion for heat and power in businesses)– Use of Solvents & HFC/PFC leakage from appliances (Air conditioning, refrigeration, fire fighting, foams)
Energy Supply– Energy production (electricity, solid & liquid fuels, generation refining and mining and oil and gas extraction**)
Industrial Process– Non energy. Fossil based carbon from feedstocks (e.g. Limestone, metal ores, oil and natural gas) production and use of HFC,
PFCs & SF6.
Land Use & Land Use Change– Managed land (e.g. forest, crops, grassland, settlements, wetlands) + Change of use (e.g. Forest -> crop, crop – grass)
Public– Combustion of fossil fuels
Residential– Combustion of fossil fuels (heating, cooking), garden machinery, aerosols & other products, accidental fires
Transport– Civil aviation & airport support vehicles, road vehicles, rail & rail infrastructure, domestic shipping & fishing, military
Waste– Landfill, sewage, incineration.
** Unallocated– offshore oil & gas exploration and production off-shore facilities
16
Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
By Source End User
Non Traded & Traded Split
Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of total net UK GHG emissions Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year (26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI).
0.2% < by source (exported electricity)
Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of total net UK GHG emissions
Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%)
Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and paper & pulp.
17
Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
By Source End User
Non Traded & Traded Split
Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of total net UK GHG emissions Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year (26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI).
0.2% < by source (exported electricity)
Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of total net UK GHG emissions
Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%)
Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and paper & pulp.
18
Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
By Source End User
Non Traded & Traded Split
Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of total net UK GHG emissions Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year (26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI).
0.2% < by source (exported electricity)
Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of total net UK GHG emissions
Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%)
Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and paper & pulp.
19
Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
By Source End User
Non Traded & Traded Split
Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of total net UK GHG emissions Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year (26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI).
0.2% < by source (exported electricity)
Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of total net UK GHG emissions
Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%)
Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and paper & pulp.
Sector 2009 UK GHGI (%)
2009 End Users GHGI (%)
Comment
Energy production
35 0 (All re-allocated to end users)
Business 15 30 High electricity and oil use
Transport 22 24 Oil use
Public 1.5 3.1 Mainly electricity
Residential 14 26 Mainly electricity
Agriculture 8.8 9.2 Bit of oil use
Waste 3.2 3.2 (No fuel use)
20
Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
By Source End User
Non Traded & Traded Split
Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of total net UK GHG emissions Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year (26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI).
0.2% < by source (exported electricity)
Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of total net UK GHG emissions
Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%)
Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and paper & pulp.
Power generation and consumption data from DECC[1] (DECC, 2011b) indicates that in 2010 around 21% of all electricity generated in Scotland was exported to England and Northern Ireland.
Power generation and consumption data from DECC (DECC, 2011b) indicates that in 2010 around 21% of all electricity generated in Scotland was exported to England and Northern Ireland.
21
Trends & Changes: Scottish by Source Emission Trends 1990 - 2010
Scotland Trends in Emissions
Percentage Change in GHG Emissions by NC: Base Year - 2010 and 2009 - 2010 The % changes for LULUCF are based on net change to emiss ions and removals throughout the time series
Figure 3.1
Percentage Change in Total GHG and CO2 Emissions by NC: Base Year - 2010 and 2009 - 2010
Base Year to 2010 as % -19% -34% -7% -79% -161% -29% 2% 2% -67% -24%2009 to 2010 as % 0% 2% 12% -4% 2% 3% 15% -1% -3% 7%
Base Year to 2010 as % -21% -42% -2% -73% -136% -28% 2% 3% -80% -19%2009 to 2010 as % 1% 2% 12% -4% 2% 3% 15% -1% 3% 9%
Base Year to 2010 kt -1,877 -3,878 -1,578 -1,436 -3,368 -351 189 196 -4,417 -16,5212009 to 2010 kt 2 139 2,209 -15 114 26 1,065 -55 -68 3,416
Base Year to 2010 kt -187 -4,681 -440 -994 -3,320 -347 182 263 -35 -9,5592009 to 2010 kt 9 108 2,188 -17 121 26 1,066 -55 0 3,447
Table 3.2
Figure 3.2
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions by NC category for Base Year to 2010, as CO2e
Waste Management Transport Residential Public Land Use ChangeIndustrial Process Energy Supply Business Agriculture
Agricul ture
Bus iness
Energy Supply
Industrial Process
Land Use Change
Publ ic
Res idential
Transport
Waste Management
Grand Total
-180%
-160%
-140%
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Base Year to 2010 as % 2009 to 2010 as %
22
Trends & Changes: Progress to targets
The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 : existing anthropogenic sources and sinks of emissions in Scotland. Includes:– Allowances for trading within the EU ETS, the EU-wide trading scheme that has been
operational since 2005– Scottish emissions from international aviation and shipping..
2050 target
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990Base Year
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent
Targets for 2010-2027 as set in the Climate Change (Annual Targets) (Scotland) Order 2010
23
Trends & Changes: Changes in by source Emissions in Scotland 1990 - 2010
Reductions– LULUCF– Industrial Process– Waste
Increases– Energy– Residential
24
Key Sources and Sinks 2010
CO2: most important
CH4: Agriculture & Waste
N2O: Agriculture
Energy Supply
Transport
LULUCF
Scotland 2010 Emissions Summary
Total GHG Emissions by NC and pollutant, 2010
Figure 3.4
Figure 3.5
Figure 3.6-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mt C
O2e
Comparison of End User and By Source Emissions, 2010 (Mt CO2e) EndUser - 2010 By Source - 2010
* Exports includes international aviation and shipping. See Sankey diagram for emissions transfer details
*
Residential combustion
Electricity Production
Road Transport
Industrial Combustionof fuels
-15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Agriculture
Business
Energy Supply
Industrial Process
Land Use Change
Public
Residential
Transport
Waste Management
kt CO2e
Total GHG Emissions by NC and sub-category highlighting the important sources, 2010
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
kt C
O2e SF6
PFCs
N2O
HFCs
CH4
CO2
25
Sectoral Analysis: Energy SupplyEnergy Supply Scotland
Figure 3.10 Figure 3.11Percentage of total emissions
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.3
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eElectrici ty Production 7% 1,065 18% 2,419Gas Production -57% -494 -17% -79Liquid Fuel Production -26% -772 -5% -122Offshore Industry -69% -806 2% 7Sol id Fuel Production -22% -572 -1% -16Tota l -7% -1,578 12% 2,209
NC Category Contribution to End UserInventory by percentage ofElectricity Production Emissions
NC Category EndUser
Agricul ture 1.98%Transport 1.21%Bus iness 53.68%Industria l Process 0.00%Publ ic 4.86%Res idential 38.26%Table 3.4
Figure 3.12
Figure 3.13 Figure 3.14
39.0%
BY-2010 2009-2010
Energy Supply
-10,0000
10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution of Energy Supply to 2010 GHG emissions
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Solid Fuel Production
Electricity Production
Liquid Fuel Production
Offshore Industry
Gas Production
kt CO2e
GHG Contribution for Energy Supply Emissions, 2010CO2
CH4
N2O
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions from Energy Supply, Base Year to 2010
Solid Fuel Production Electricity Production Liquid Fuel Production
Offshore Industry Gas Production
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2009 2010
kt C
O2e
Traded and Non-Traded Energy Supply Emissions, 2008-2010
Sum of Non-Traded GHGI All GHGsSum of Traded Emissions CO2 only
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ele
ctri
city
Ge
nera
tion
(GW
h)
Emissions and Electricity Production by Fuel Type from Major Power Producers (1A1a)
Gas Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables and Hydro
Energy Supply Scotland
Figure 3.11Percentage of total emissions
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.3
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eElectrici ty Production 7% 1,065 18% 2,419Gas Production -57% -494 -17% -79Liquid Fuel Production -26% -772 -5% -122Offshore Industry -69% -806 2% 7Sol id Fuel Production -22% -572 -1% -16Tota l -7% -1,578 12% 2,209
NC Category Contribution to End UserInventory by percentage ofElectricity Production Emissions
NC Category EndUser
Agricul ture 1.98%Transport 1.21%Bus iness 53.68%Industria l Process 0.00%Publ ic 4.86%Res idential 38.26%Table 3.4
Figure 3.12
Figure 3.13 Figure 3.14
Energy Supply
-10,0000
10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution of Energy Supply to 2010 GHG emissions
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Solid Fuel Production
Electricity Production
Liquid Fuel Production
Offshore Industry
Gas Production
kt CO2e
GHG Contribution for Energy Supply Emissions, 2010CO2
CH4
N2O
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions from Energy Supply, Base Year to 2010
Solid Fuel Production Electricity Production Liquid Fuel Production
Offshore Industry Gas Production
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2009 2010
kt C
O2e
Traded and Non-Traded Energy Supply Emissions, 2008-2010
Sum of Non-Traded GHGI All GHGsSum of Traded Emissions CO2 only
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ele
ctri
city
Ge
nera
tion
(GW
h)
Emissions and Electricity Production by Fuel Type from Major Power Producers (1A1a)
Gas Coal Oil Nuclear Renewables and Hydro
UK electricity grid GHG factor basis for end user inventories, so ….investment in Scotland renewables wouldn’t necessarily pan out into inventory reductions IN SCOTLAND – will lead to reductions in reported emissions across the UK.
26
Increase despite improvements in efficiency of transport vehicles, as a result of strong growth in transport demand and increased affordability of cars and fuel
constrained (DUKES fuel sales) and unconstrained (vehicle kilometre, vkm) approaches
Sectoral Analysis: TransportTransport Scotland
Percentage of total emissionsFigure 3.15
Figure 3.16
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.5
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eAircraft & Airports 42.4% 150 -9.4% -52.6Industria l Combustion of fuels -100.0% -6 - 0.00Other Transport -27.1% -291 -3.1% -25.0Road Transport 3.8% 345 0.2% 22.5Stationary and mobi le combustion -47.1% -1.9 1.2% 0.0Tota l 1.9% 196 -0.5% -55.1
Figure 3.17 Figure 3.18
Figure 3.19 Figure 3.20
20.1%
BY-2010 2009-2010
Transport
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution of Transport to 2010 GHG emissions
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions from Transport, Base Year - 2010
Stationary and mobile combustion Other TransportAircraft & Airports Road TransportIndustrial Combustion of fuels
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Stationaryand mobilecombustion
OtherTransport
Aircraft &Airports
RoadTransport
IndustrialCombustion
of fuels
kt C
O2e
Pollutant Contribution to Transport sub-categories, 2010
N2O
CH4
CO2
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
kt C
O2
Road Transport CO2 Emissions (vkm)
Cars LGVs HGVs Buses Motorcycles
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1990
1995
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
kt C
O2
Road Transport CO2 Emissions (fuel sales)
Cars LGVs HGVs Buses Motorcycles
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mt C
O2e
Comparison of End User and By SourceTransport Emissions, 2010
EndUserSource
Transport Scotland
Percentage of total emissionsFigure 3.15
Figure 3.16
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.5
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eAircraft & Airports 42.4% 150 -9.4% -52.6Industria l Combustion of fuels -100.0% -6 - 0.00Other Transport -27.1% -291 -3.1% -25.0Road Transport 3.8% 345 0.2% 22.5Stationary and mobi le combustion -47.1% -1.9 1.2% 0.0Tota l 1.9% 196 -0.5% -55.1
Figure 3.17 Figure 3.18
Figure 3.19 Figure 3.20
Transport
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution of Transport to 2010 GHG emissions
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions from Transport, Base Year - 2010
Stationary and mobile combustion Other TransportAircraft & Airports Road TransportIndustrial Combustion of fuels
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Stationaryand mobilecombustion
OtherTransport
Aircraft &Airports
RoadTransport
IndustrialCombustion
of fuels
kt C
O2e
Pollutant Contribution to Transport sub-categories, 2010
N2O
CH4
CO2
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
kt C
O2
Road Transport CO2 Emissions (vkm)
Cars LGVs HGVs Buses Motorcycles
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1990
1995
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
kt C
O2
Road Transport CO2 Emissions (fuel sales)
Cars LGVs HGVs Buses Motorcycles
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mt C
O2e
Comparison of End User and By SourceTransport Emissions, 2010
EndUserSource
Transport Scotland
Percentage of total emissionsFigure 3.15
Figure 3.16
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.5
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eAircraft & Airports 42.4% 150 -9.4% -52.6Industria l Combustion of fuels -100.0% -6 - 0.00Other Transport -27.1% -291 -3.1% -25.0Road Transport 3.8% 345 0.2% 22.5Stationary and mobi le combustion -47.1% -1.9 1.2% 0.0Tota l 1.9% 196 -0.5% -55.1
Figure 3.17 Figure 3.18
Figure 3.19 Figure 3.20
Transport
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution of Transport to 2010 GHG emissions
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions from Transport, Base Year - 2010
Stationary and mobile combustion Other TransportAircraft & Airports Road TransportIndustrial Combustion of fuels
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Stationaryand mobilecombustion
OtherTransport
Aircraft &Airports
RoadTransport
IndustrialCombustion
of fuels
kt C
O2e
Pollutant Contribution to Transport sub-categories, 2010
N2O
CH4
CO2
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
kt C
O2
Road Transport CO2 Emissions (vkm)
Cars LGVs HGVs Buses Motorcycles
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1990
1995
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
kt C
O2
Road Transport CO2 Emissions (fuel sales)
Cars LGVs HGVs Buses Motorcycles
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mt C
O2e
Comparison of End User and By SourceTransport Emissions, 2010
EndUserSource
27
Sectoral Analysis: Residential
Increase in emissions– cold winters and a resultant
high demand for fossil
End User– high consumption of electricity
in the sector– improvements in housing
energy efficiency and lower carbon intensity of the electricity generation
Residential Scotland
15.7%Percentage of total emissions
Figure 3.21Figure 3.22
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.6
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eAerosols and metered dose inhalers and other household products 148.5% 214 -1.9% -7Other -33.8% -0.04 -0.2% 0.0Res idential combustion -0.3% -25 15.4% 1,071.8Tota l 2.3% 189 14.6% 1,064.7
Figure 3.23 Figure 3.24
BY-2010 2009-2010
Res idential
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution of Residential sector to 2010 GHG emissions
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions by sub-sector, Base Year - 2010
Aerosols and metered dose inhalers and other household productsOtherResidential combustion
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Residentialcombustion
Other Aerosols andmetered doseinhalers and
other householdproducts
kt C
O2e
Pollutant contribution to Residential Emissions, 2010
N2O
HFCs
CH4
CO2
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mt C
O2e
Comparison between End User and By Source Inventory Totals, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
EndUserSource
28
Sectoral Analysis: BusinessBusiness Scotland
Figure 3.25 14.10% Percentage of total emissions
Figure 3.26
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.7
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eIndustria l Combustion of fuels -23.8% -2,003.8 1.5% 92.6Iron and s teel - combustion and electrici ty -98.2% -2,765.8 37.8% 14.3Refrigeration and a i r conditioning 1350.8% 842.7 4.0% 34.4Use of Flourinated Gases 50.5% 48.9 -1.6% -2.3Tota l -34.1% -3,878.1 1.9% 138.9
Figure 3.27 Figure 3.28
2009-2010BY-2010
Bus iness
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution to 2010 GHG emissions
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Iron and steel -combustion and electricity
Refrigeration and airconditioning
Use of Flourinated Gases
Industrial Combustion offuels
kt CO2e
Pollutant Contribution for Business Emissions, 2010
CO2
CH4
HFCs
N2O
PFCs
SF6
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions from Business, Base Year - 2010
Industrial Combustion of fuelsUse of Flourinated GasesRefrigeration and air conditioningIron and steel - combustion and electricity
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mt C
O2e
Comparison between End User andBy Source Inventory for the Business Sector, 1990
and 2006-2010 (Mt CO2e)
EndUser Source
lack of detail in the EU ETS dataset, Business and Industrial Process emissions are not easy to separate
declining manufacturing and iron and steel industry emissions
Increasing F-Gas use
End User: high consumption of electricity for heating, lighting and operating equipment
29
Sectoral Analysis: Public Service
building energy efficiency
convert to the use of gas-fired boilers
End user = 193% of the by source emission– High % electricity
use
Public Scotland
Figure 3.30Figure 3.29
Percentage of total emissions
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.8
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2ePubl ic Sector -28.7% -351 3.1% 26
Figure 3.31 Figure 3.32
1.64%
BY-2010 2009-2010
Publ ic
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution of Public sector to 2010 GHG emissions
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions from Public, Base Year - 2010 Public Sector
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Public Sector
kt C
O2e
Public Sector Emissions by Pollutant, 2010
N2O
CH4
CO2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1990 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mt C
O2e
Comparison between End User and By Source Inventoryfor the Public Sector, 1990 and 2006-2010 (Mt CO2e)
EndUser
Source
30
Sectoral Analysis: Industrial ProcessIndustrial Process Scotland
0.73%Percentage of total emissions
Figure 3.33
Figure 3.34
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.9 BY-2010 2009-2010
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eCement production -44.8% -229 -1.2% -3.5Chemical Production -91.9% -464 -23.1% -12.3Electrici ty Production -100.0% -152 - 0.0Iron & Steel -100.0% -595 0.4% 0.0Other Processes 6.5% 4 0.5% 0.3Total -78.7% -1436 -3.8% -15.4
Figure 3.35
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Cement production
Electricity Production
Other Processes
Chemical Production
Iron & Steel
kt CO2e
Pollutant Contribution for Industrial Process Emissions, 2010
CO2
CH4
HFCs
N2O
PFCs
SF6
Industrial Process
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution of Industrial Process to 2010 GHG emissions
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
BaseYear
1990 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions from Industrial Process, Base Year - 2010
Cement production Electricity Production Other ProcessesChemical Production Iron & Steel
Closure– nitric acid plant, – Ravenscraig iron and
steel works,
Reduction in emissions from the chemicals and cement sectors
lack of detail in the EU ETS dataset, Business and Industrial Process emissions are not easy to separate
31
Sectoral Analysis: AgricultureAgriculture Scotland
Figure 3.36 14.93% Figure 3.37Percentage of total emissions
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.10
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eCrop Growing and Ferti l i zer Appl ication -21.2% -1,124.2 -0.6% -23.2Field burning of agricul tura l wastes -100.0% -8.2 - 0.00Livestock -15.4% -542.6 0.5% 13.9Stationary and mobi le combustion -20.0% -202.2 1.4% 11.2Tota l -19.1% -1,877.1 0.0% 1.9
Figure 3.39
Figure 3.38
BY-2010 2009-2010
Agricul ture
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution to 2010 GHG emissions
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
ktCO
2e
Total GHG emissions from Agriculture, Base Year - 2010
Stationary and mobile combustion Field burning of agricultural wastesLivestock Crop Growing and Fertilizer Application
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Stationary and mobile combustion
Field burning of agricultural wastes
Livestock
Crop Growing and Fertilizer Application
kt CO2e
Agriculture Emissions by category and pollutant, 2010
CO2
CH4
N2O
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
kt C
O2e
Livestock emissions by type, 2010
SheepPoultryPigsManure liquid systemsHorsesGoatsDeerCattle
Almost 85% of total N2O
– fertiliser nitrogen use, manure applications and grazing returns to soils
– declined by 21.6% 1990-2010 from decline in livestock numbers (manure) and in fertiliser nitrogen use
CH4 affected by decline in numbers of livestock (15.5% decline over the period 1990-2010)
End User: Majority of emissions in the agriculture sector are not due to energy consumption.
32
Sectoral Analysis: LULUCFLULUCF Scotland
Figure 3.40 -10.25%Percentage of total emissions Figure 3.41
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.13
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eCreation and Maintenance of Settlements -10.3% -180.4 -0.8% -13.1Land Converted to Grass , Crop and Forest -49.8% -1,983.5 -11.1% -249.3Land Mainta ined as Crops , Grass and Forest 0.4% -26.0 -13.0% 1,066.6Wood Products & Harvesting 163.3% -1,177.7 57.1% -690.0Tota l 161.0% -3,367.7 -2.0% 114.1
Figure 3.42
BY-2010 2009-2010
Land Use Change
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution to 2010 GHG emissions
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
BaseYear
1990 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions from LULUCF, Base Year - 2010
Land Maintained as Crops, Grass and ForestLand Converted to Grass, Crop and ForestCreation and Maintenance of SettlementsWood Products & HarvestingTotal
-8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000
Land Maintained as Crops, Grass and Forest
Land Converted to Grass, Crop and Forest
Creation and Maintenance of Settlements
Wood Products & Harvesting
kt CO2e
Pollutant Contribution to LULUCF GHG Emissions, 2010
CO2
CH4
N2O
reduction in emissions from land conversion to cropland from grassland and forests.
largest source = Cropland (5,321 ktCO2e in 2010) (including maintenance and conversion to) releases carbon from clearing of biomass and from ploughing of soils.
Removals from the maintenance of, and conversion to, forestland and grassland. Long-term forest management (the extensive conifer plantations established in the mid-20th century are now reaching felling age, with reduced removals from forest but with increased carbon stocks in harvested wood products in recent years).
33
Sectoral Analysis: WasteWaste Scotland
Percentage of total emissionsFigure 3.43
Figure 3.44
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010Table 3.14
Sub-sector % kt CO2e % kt CO2eLandfi l l -68.4% -4,369.7 -3.3% -68.4Other -74.3% -37.2 3.4% 0.4Waste-water handl ing -7.9% -10.5 -0.2% -0.2Tota l -67.2% -4,417.4 -3.1% -68.2
Figure 3.45
4.05%
BY-2010 2009-2010
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Landfill
Waste-water handling
Other
kt CO2e
Pollutant contribution to Waste Management Emissions, 2010
CO2
CH4
N2O
Waste Management
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
kt C
O2e
Overall Contribution of Waste Management to2010 GHG emissions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
BaseYear
1990 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
kt C
O2e
Total GHG Emissions from Waste Management, Base Year - 2010OtherWaste-water handlingLandfill
The UK waste model methane from landfills based statistics on waste arisings, degradation rates of different components of waste, and UK-wide estimates of methane capture and oxidation, both in the landfill surface layer and in flares and gas engines.)– Scotland DON’T have any data specific to
methane combustion in flares and gas engines
Assumptions on progressive introduction of methane capture and oxidation systems within landfill management
34
Overview: Changes (due to new data and/or improved inventory estimation methodologies) since 2011 estimates
2009 Recalculations :– Business: (1,007 ktCO2e increase)
• industrial combustion allocation of (OPG) use in Scotland across the inventory time series and updated Inter-Departmental Business Register; increased estimates by around 500 ktCO2e in Scotland in 2009.
• UK HFC model for refrigeration and air conditioning equipment increased the estimates for Scotland in 2009 by 256 ktCO2e;
– Energy Supply: (324 ktCO2e increase)
• revision of OPG use in petroleum refining and revisions to gas oil allocations to the upstream oil and gas sector. • reduction in estimates for 2009 of emissions from closed coal mines due to updated analysis from the update to closed
coal mine emission estimates.– Waste Management: (149 ktCO2e increase)
• from revisions to the UK waste model and also revisions to use more DA-specific input data to derive country-specific estimates.
Base Year estimates have been for the following sectors:– Business: (789 kt CO2e increase)
• revision to industrial combustion allocation of OPG use in Scotland across the inventory time series and revisions to UK inventory allocations of gas oil.
– Agriculture: (194 kt CO2e decrease)
• revisions to emission estimates from agricultural soils.– Waste Management: (96 kt CO2e increase)
• revisions to the UK GHGI landfill waste model and revisions to the DA landfill waste method to utilise more country-specific data for waste disposals to landfill.
For more details of revisions to DA GHG emission estimates, see Appendix 7.
35
Uncertainties: By Source
UK (+-16%).
England (+-14%)
Scotland (+-27%), Wales (+-19%)
Northern Ireland (+-38%)
Scottish uncertainties high:– LULUCF sources– N2O from agric soils– F-Gases: 2010 dispersed and heavily
modelled and uncertain:• In 1995, >80% of F-gas industrial
sources (manufacture, Aluminium production etc.)
• 2010, ~70% refrigeration sources (UK F-gas model) ~ 20% from aerosols
Base Year Latest Year (2010)
Gas (kt CO2e) Central Estimate
Uncertainty Introduced on total
Central Estimate
Uncertainty Introduced on total
Scotland
Carbon Dioxide CO2 50,942 10% 41,339 10%
Methane CH4 11,860 31% 5,581 22%
Nitrous Oxide N2O 6,666 260% 5,016 271%
HFC 113 8% 1,182 7%
PFC 87 17% 49 58%
SF6 31 17% 47 20%
Total 69,699 26% 53,214 27%
From 2012 DA GHGI report: Appendix 1- Table A1.1 Estimated Uncertainties in the DA GHG Inventories: Base Years, 2010 and Trend
36
36
Drivers to Scotland / DA GHGI Improvement
• Monitoring against targets (Climate Change (Scotland) Act , WG CC Strategy, NI DoE
development of targets is on-going), carbon budgets
• GHGI data underpins emission projections, policy appraisal, and cost-benefit analysis
of policies and programmes
• Reduce data uncertainty (overshadows trends in some sectors)
• Improve data accuracy & sensitivity: (1) better understanding of opportunities for
GHG savings, (2) reflect local policy impacts
37
37
Scotland GHGI Improvement Examples (1)
STRATEGIC ISSUES
EU ETS data needed earlier from regulators to feed into DUKES data, as in other MS (benefit to UK GHGI also)
Needs more resources for regulators (SEPA etc.) & stakeholder relationships with DECC
ENHANCE SCOTLAND-SPECIFIC DATA / SURVEYS
e.g. Agriculture inventory method needs to be more detailed if the GHGI is to be sensitive enough to reflect changes in breeds, feeds, manure management…
Develop more rigorous data capture systems, include local research findings (Emission Factors & Activity Data)
38
38
Scotland GHGI Improvement Examples (2)
DEVELOP NEW DATA MECHANISMS
Very little local data on energy use for domestic, commercial, small-scale industry….
Need more bottom-up data. Develop data reporting requirements and access more information from local fuel suppliers, gas grid operators, oil merchants etc.
ENSURE FULL ACCESS TO EXISTING DATA
More electronically available data, less paper-based regulation. Establish data supply agreements with key operators / organisations, e.g. to overcome barriers of data confidentiality.
Need more bottom-up data and ability to correctly interpret available data. Recent example is the need to better understand precise fuel types used in major EU ETS facilities, to help resolve data discrepancies with DUKES energy statistics.
39
Summary of points
Good Scottish GHG inventory = good quality Scottish activity data and emission factors – – access to latest research, access to your data gathering systems for policy reporting, more
surveys, better surveys etc.
Transport GHGI data at UK level – resolved to sales data. – Availability of both DUKES-constrained and unconstrained data,
Waste sector model – limitations, assumptions needed (UK and Scotland level)– DON’T have any data specific to methane combustion in flares and gas engines
Very limited energy data – no “Scottish energy balance”. Fairly good gas data, but NO solid or liquid fuel data. total
allocation of gas, coal, oil use is not known
Agricultural statistics
Better EUETS integration needed– Time– Willingness from UK/Scottish stats
Further integration with Policy makers to provide policy-specific data or reporting outputs.
End Users model: Electricity data by sector are very limited for Scotland, Wales, N Ireland, England, so there is high uncertainty on sector allocation.
40
Devolved Administration GHG inventory Report
http://naei.defra.gov.uk/report_link.php?report_id=709
Spreadsheet on detailed data
Spreadsheet for Graphs and tables
41
Glen Thistlethwaite
Manager, DA GHG inventory
Ricardo-AEAThe Gemini BuildingFermi AvenueHarwellDidcotOX11 0QR
t: +44 (0)870 190 6584
e: glen.thistlethwaite@ricardo-aea.com w: http://www.ricardo-aea.com
Justin Goodwin
Director
Aether99 Milton ParkAbingdon, OX14 4RY UK
t: +44 1243 512932 | Mobile: +44 7525 211 475.
e: justin.goodwin@aether-uk.com
w: www.aether-uk.com w: www.environmenttools.com
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