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9/18/2013
1
SHRINKING CITIES IN THE UNITED STATESTHE CHALLENGE OF POST-INDUSTRIAL TRANSITION
ALAN MALLACHSENIOR FELLOWCENTER FOR COMMUNITY PROGRESSWASHINGTON, DC, USA
PRESENTATION TO SHRINKING CITIES IN EUROPEFINAL CONFERENCE EU COST ACTION “CITIES GROWING SMALLER”ESSEN, GERMANY13 SEPTEMBER 2013
IMAGES
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MAJOR US SHRINKING CITIES(CITIES WITH 1950 POPULATION >100,000)
Chicago IL Newark NJ Albany NY
Philadelphia PA Buffalo NY New Bedford MA
Detroit MI Norfolk VA Fall River MA
Baltimore MD Birmingham AL Reading PA
Washington DC Rochester NY Trenton NJ
Louisville KY Richmond VA Gary IN
Milwaukee WI Akron OH Camden NJ
Cleveland OH Providence RI Scranton PA
Minneapolis MN Syracuse NY Canton OH
New Orleans LA Dayton OH Wilmington DE
St. Louis MO New Haven CT Youngstown OH
Pittsburgh PA Hartford CT Utica NY
Cincinnati OH Flint MI Saginaw MI
Toledo OH Erie PA
MAJOR US SHRINKING CITIES BY 2010 POPULATION
500,000+200,000-499,999<200,000
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POPULATION LOSS IN SIX LARGE AMERICAN CITIES 1950-2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Detroit
Baltimore
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
Buffalo
1950 population = 100
10 MAJOR SHRINKING CITIESCity 1950
population2000 population
2010 population
2010 as % of 1950 population
Population change 2000-2010
St. Louis 856796 348189 319294 37.3% - 8.3%
Detroit 1849568 951270 713777 38.6 - 25.0
Cleveland 914808 478403 396815 43.4 - 17.0
Buffalo 580182 292648 261310 45.0 - 10.7
Pittsburgh 676706 334563 305704 45.2 - 8.6
Cincinnati 503998 331285 296943 58.9 - 10.4
Newark 438776 273546 277140 63.2 + 1.3
Baltimore 949706 651154 620961 65.4 - 4.6
Milwaukee 871407 596974 594833 68.3 - 0.4
Philadelphia 2071605 1517550 1526006 73.7 + 0.6
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WHY HAVE THESE CITIES LOST POPULATION?
• Drivers of shrinkage
Suburbanization Loss of central (downtown) role
Regional migration/growth of the Sunbelt
De-industrialization
• Contributing factors
Federal housing policy
The Interstate highway system
Municipal and fiscal fragmentation
Racial conflict
SUBURBANIZATION IN METRO DETROIT 1950-2010
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
City
Metro
Suburbs
1950-1980SuburbanPopulation+1,814,787
1950-1980CityPopulation- 646,200
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THE EFFECTS OF SUBURBANIZATION
Cleveland
Youngstown
Canton
Lorain
Akron
153 KM●
●
●
●
●
NortheastOhio2011
REGIONAL MIGRATION(POPULATION GROWTH 1950-2010)
CAL+252%
ARIZ+391%
TEX+226% FLOR
+280%
IL+47% PA
+31%
NY+21%
United States +103%
NEV+1687%
MASS+40%
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CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING JOBS 1947-2007
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1947 1958 1967 1977 2007
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g w
ork
ers
(000
)
Detroit
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
MUNICIPAL FRAGMENTATION
Allegheny County Pennsylvania1.2 million population 130 separate municipalities
Pittsburgh
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WHAT ARE THE PRINCIPAL EFFECTS OF SHRINKAGE?
Increased poverty
Increased unemployment/lower labor force attachment
Lower educational and skill attainment
Weak housing market
Large-scale property abandonment
Reduced fiscal capacity/ability to deliver services
Overextended/deteriorated infrastructure
POVERTY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UnitedStates
Camden Cleveland Detroit Gary
% below poverty level
% under 18 belowpoverty level
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EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
UnitedStates
Camden Cleveland Detroit Gary
% without highschool diploma
% with collegedegree or higher
Population aged25 and over
UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATIONAL LEVEL
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
DET CLE BUFF PITT USA
No HS diploma
BA or higher degree
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EDUCATIONAL DISPARITIES
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Cleveland Detroit Newark St. Louis Cincinnati
Jobs in city
Workers in city
White adults 25+
African-American adults 25+
CHANGE IN HOUSING INVENTORY 1990-2010 (IN THOUSANDS OF UNITS)CITY CATEGORY 1990 2010 ∆1990-2010 ∆% 1990-2010
Detroit Total DUs 410.0 349.2 - 60.8 - 14.8%
Occupied DUs 373.8 269.5 - 104.3 - 27.9%
Vacant DUs 36.2 79.7 + 43.5 + 120.2%
Cleveland Total DUs 224.3 207.5 - 16.8 - 7.5%
Occupied DUs 199.8 167.5 - 32.3 - 16.7%
Vacant DUs 24.5 40.0 + 15.5 + 63.3%
Dayton OH
Total DUs 80.4 74.1 - 6.3 - 7.8%
Occupied DUs 72.7 58.4 - 14.3 - 19.7%
Vacant DUs 7.7 15.7 + 8.0 + 103.8%
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HOUSING DATA FOR SELECTED SHRINKING CITIES
CITY Median sales price 2006
Median sales price 2011
Change 2006-2011
Vacancy rate 2010
Detroit $70000 $17500 - 75% 22.8%
Cleveland $49900 $25750 - 48% 19.3%
Gary $69160 $43092 - 38% 20.6%
HOUSES FOR SALE IN DETROIT
132 square meters€ 3650
200 square meters€ 6340
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VACANT LAND IN DETROIT
VACANT LAND IN DETROIT – A GROUND VIEW
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FISCAL STRESSDETROIT 2006-2012
POSITIONS2006-2007
POSITIONS 2012-2013
% CHANGE
Buildings & Safety
331 244 - 26%
Public Works 765 554 - 38%
EnvironmentalAffairs
57 Incorporated into Public Works
-100%
Fire 1536 1257 - 18%
Health 404 115 - 72%
Police 3641 2954 - 19%
Public Lighting 227 129 - 43%
Recreation 199 87 - 56%
FISCAL STRESSFLINT, MICHIGAN 2001-2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Police officers
Firefighters
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THE CENTRAL CHALLENGES
Creating a new export-oriented economic base
Restoring housing and neighborhood market demand
Rebuilding human and social capital & fostering social inclusion
KEY ISSUES 1
Creating a new export-oriented economic base: what can replace manufacturing?
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EDS AND MEDS? TECHNOLOGY?
OTHER ECONOMIC OPTIONS
V&M Star SteelYoungstown OH
Kayaking in theAllegheny RiverPittsburgh
Eastern MarketDetroit
Tiger StadiumDetroit
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KEY ISSUES 2
• How to restore housing and neighborhood market demand?• Capturing changing demographics: are downtowns
the neighborhoods of the future?
• What is the future of the traditional residential neighborhood?
• What role will immigration play?
• What will it take to recapture a share of regional demand?
Downtown St. Louis
Baltimore neighborhood
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KEY ISSUES 3• How to rebuild human capital and
foster social inclusion? • How to overcome adult educational and skill deficits?• Where will the jobs come from: can we create good jobs
for people without university degrees? • Can we create good neighborhoods for lower income
people? • How can minority communities be part of the decisions
about their cities’ future? • How can we foster balanced redevelopment from which
all social and economic groups benefit?
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