Shuyi S. Chen Rosenstial School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami

Shuyi S. ChenRosenstial School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

University of Miami

(DRAFT only!!!Improving Hurricane Structure and Intensity Forecast:

Toward the next-generation models)

In the eye of Katrina

(Hurricane Briefing, 10 July 2007)

Current State of Hurricane Forecasting

Track forecast errors cut in half

in 15 years

No progress with intensity

MM5 (1.6km)WRF (1.6km)

NHC Fcst

Obs

New Research Model Forecasting Experiment

1.6 km

15 km

Airborne radar observed rain in Hurricane Floyd (1999)

The best operational model

High-resolution research model

Most global operational models

45 km

Impact of Model Resolution on Hurricane Forecast

NRL

Sponsored by

Parners:

High Resolution Model Forecasts for Rita’s Eyewall Replacement

Airborne Radar Observed Rita’s Concentric Eyewalls

Atmosphere

Waves

OceanLand

State-of-the-Art of the Next-Generation Hurricane Forecast Model (High-Resolution and Fully Coupled)

CBLAST(Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer)

(Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer)

A goal of CBLAST is to better understand how hurricanes interact with the ocean, and to use this to improve hurricane forecast models

Significant Wave Height (m)

Model Forecast of Hurricane Katrina (2005) (water depth)

RainRate

Surface Wind Speed (m/s)

Better understanding of physical processes that lead to extreme winds, heavy rain, and storm surge in hurricanes

New technologies needed for an integrated hurricane forecasting system that is based on state-of-the-art computer models, data assimilation, and observations

New tools for assessing hurricane impacts on ecosystems and human dimensions including the potential loss of life, economic damage, insured losses, power outage, surge and fresh-water flooding

New strategies for better warnings of when and where damaging winds and heavy rain will occur, enabling emergency planners to provide for an appropriate level of preparedness

Transition of new research and technologies into operations

ChallengesChallenges

Sustainable partnership among academics, industries, and federal government

Effective and accountable research facility that can provide smooth transition from research to operations

Direct communications between researchers and forecasters