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In this issue:- Singapore Property News This Week- Timing Your Investment In the Singapore Property Market- Resale Property Transactions (June 20 – June 26 )
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CONTENTS p2 Singapore Property News This Week
p7 Timing Your Investment In the
Singapore Property Market
p15 Resale Property Transactions
(June 20 – June 26)
Welcome to the 59th edition of the Singapore Property Weekly. Hope you like it! Mr. Propwise
FROM THE
EDITOR
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
Singapore Property This Week
Page | 2 Back to Contents
Residential
Botanic Investments said to have sold 17
units at freehold 8 Napier
172,013 sq ft three-bedroom units at the
freehold project 8 Napier located opposite the
US Embassy and near the Singapore Botanic
Gardens are said to have been sold to Alpha
Investment Partners at $100 million or $2,800-
3,000 psf via sale of shares in Botanic
Investments. These units can found on the
second to the eighth floors of the 10-storey
development, which has yet to sell 15 of its
units, including six penthouses.
Demand for resale HDB flats on the rise as
COV falls
As the cash-over-valuation (COV) starts to
stabilise after falling by over 20% in Q1,
demand for resale HDB flats are increasing.
According to HDB's flash estimate of the
resale price index (RPI), prices for flats
increase by 1.3% in Q2, possibly due to the
fall of median COVs to $25,000 in June 2012,
as well as the increase in valuations.
Transaction volumes also increased by 8%
from 5,126 in Q1 to 5,549 in Q2, with the
highest volumes coming from Woodlands,
Jurong West and Yishun. Buyers may choose
to purchase resale flats instead of BTO flats
since COVs have fallen to a level similar to
the resale levy imposed on second-timers
when buying BTOs. Furthermore, those who
did not qualify for BTOs or those who failed in
their BTO and Sale of Balance (SBF) flats
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
Page | 3 Back to Contents
application attempts may turn to the resale
market. Some, however believe that the
upward trend in prices is unlikely to continue,
growing by less than 2% in the next quarter
and perhaps even fall since the prices are
near the peak.
Recovery of property market since 2009
means more gains for private home
owners
Since the recovery in late 2009, private home
owners has gained at least $20.3 billion worth
of gross profit and even more since profits
from collective sales were not included.
Overall profitability, however, has been falling
from more than $4 billion in H1 2011 to $2.7
billion in H1 2012 while the percentage of
unprofitable transactions has increased from
1% to 2% in H1 2012. Despite this, the
average profitability per transaction in the
secondary market reached a new high of
$522,056 in H1 2012 almost double the
$288,991 recorded in H2 2009.
99-year Landmark Tower up for sale by
public tender
99-year Landmark Tower located on Chin
Swee Road comes with an indicative price tag
of $280-288 million or $1,315-1,355 psf ppr if
another $42 million was paid to top-up the
lease. If the 10% additional GFA for balcony
space is included, the price would increase to
$1,252-1,286 psf ppr. The 38-storey building
sits on a 60,821 sq ft site zoned “residential”
with a 4.014 plot ratio based on its current
GFA. It also offers a 360⁰ view of Singapore’s
skyline and has the added benefit of being
located near the Chinatown and Outram Park
MRT Stations and other amenities. The tender
closes at 3pm on Aug 7.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
Page | 4 Back to Contents
Proportion of ABSD-exempt buying
increases
In H1 2012, purchases by foreign buyers
(including PRS) from ABSD-exempt countries
as a result of bilateral free-trade agreements
made up 3.1% of foreign purchases, up from
2% in H1 2011 and 2.6% in H1 2010.
However, transaction volumes from these
buyers have been falling, suggesting that the
economy may be more of a factor than
cooling measures in determining demand.
Nevertheless, these purchases only account
for a minute percentage of the market and
hence could not reflect the overall market. It
appeared that the ABSD has been effective in
discouraging foreign purchases since the
number of such purchases has fallen by 75%
from 1,374 in Q4 2011 to 345 in Q1 2012
before falling by another 3% to 334 in Q2
2012.
A slew of upcoming launches to look out
for
The new upcoming launches in the next
couple of weeks include Haus@Serangoon
Garden, Eden Residences Capitol near City
Hall MRT Station, V on Shenton, Parc
Olympia at Flora Drive and Parc Centros near
Punggol MRT station.
First up is 99-year leasehold
Haus@Serangoon Garden which consists of
97 terrace houses priced at $2.5 million-$3
million each. An intermediate terrace house
will have 3,600 sq ft of built-up floor area
sitting on a 1,600 sq ft land area.
Some of the 39 units at 99-year leasehold
Eden Residences Capitol near City Hall MRT
Station next to Capitol Theatre may be
released in late July or early August.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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The units include three-bedroom (2,200 sq ft)
and four-bedroom units (over 3,000 sq ft),
penthouses and garden villas on the levels 3-
11 of the mixed development with most
offering views of Marina Bay. Prices have not
been sets but some speculate that it could hit
$3,000 psf given its location.
99-year leasehold 510-unit V on Shenton, will
be launched late this month at an average
price of $2,300-$2,500 psf. The units in the
54-storey tower include 440-plus sq ft studio
apartments, 880 sq ft two-bedroom units,
1,000 sq ft two-bedroom-plus-study units,
1,500-1,750 sq ft three-bedroom units and six
3,300-7,000 sq ft penthouses. The project
also offers a swimming pool, club lounge, an
indoor gym, open-air landscaped gardens
and outdoor dining areas for private parties.
Other upcoming launches include the 99-year
leasehold Parc Olympia at Flora Drive with an
average price tag of $880-$900 psf and 16-
storey Parc Centros near Punggol MRT
Station at $950 psf on average. Prices for the
project with one to five-bedroom units and
penthouses start from $550,000 or $1,195 psf
for a 460-sq ft one-bedroom unit.
Commercial
34,912.7 sq ft freehold industrial plot at
Sims Drive asking for $48-50m
The site located at at 53 Lorong 17 Geylang
is up for sale by public tender is asking for
$48-50 million or $550-$573 psf ppr based on
its 2.5 gross plot ratio. There is no
development charge payable for the
redevelopment of the site zoned ‘Business 1’.
A new high-tech development with communal
lifestyle facilities and 45 to 50 150 sq m
strata-titled units could be built and sold at an
estimated average price of $1,000-1,200 psf.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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However, many believe that the $48-50
million price tag is too high especially since a
new development would have to be sold at
above $1,100 psf, way above the average
price of $800-900 psf in the area. The high
price tag assumes that the average price will
increase but this may not happen since there
have been governmental measures to control
price increases.
Prices of industrial space expected to rise
Even as rents for industrial space fall (greater
fall expected in high-tech industrial spaces),
the capital values of such property are on the
rise. Average rents of business parks and
high-tech industrial space fell by 0.7% to
$4.35 psf per month and $2.98 psf per month
in Q2 respectively while rents for conventional
industrial space remained stable at $1.75 psf
per month. The fall in rents for high-tech
spaces is expected to be higher than that of
the latter, especially since much of the
upcoming supply are high-tech spaces.
Capital values, however, has been on the
rise, driven by investors turning to the
industrial market as a result of the ABSD and
higher prices in new launches in the
residential market. Prices for first-storey
industrial space and upper-storey spaces in
the secondary market increased by 4% to
$577 psf and 4.9% to $430 psf respectively in
Q2. This decrease in rents coupled with
increase in capital values means that yields
are getting smaller but prices are expected to
continue to climb as demand for new GLS
and resale sites not affected by the new
restrictions on industrial properties increase.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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Timing Your Investment In the Singapore Property Market
By Mr. Propwise
If you’ve been in the market long enough,
you’d have noticed that property prices go up
and down in stretches over varying periods of
time. In markets as in real life, gravity rules –
what goes up must come down.
Sometimes you hear people refer to periods
when prices go up as a bull market, when
everyone is obsessed with (and an expert on)
property, you hear stories about people
making lots of money trading properties, and
property agents don’t bother returning your
calls.
These are then followed by bear markets,
when property prices are going down,
overleveraged property owners stop talking
about how many properties they own, and
property agents that are still in the industry tell
you how now is a good time to buy from the
forced sellers.
We call these recurring patterns of gains and
losses “cycles”, and while it is extremely
difficult to predict them with any accuracy, the
market often gives us clues as to what’s
coming next.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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Imagine if you could read these signals to get
a fairly good sense of what’s coming next –
whether the market is likely to fall or to go up.
Wouldn’t that be extremely valuable to you if
you were planning to buy and sell a property?
Depending on the value of your property, we
could probably even quantify that value in the
hundreds of thousands of dollars over a cycle.
Introducing the Property Market Cycle
ModelTM
It was for this purpose that we created the
propietary Property Market Cycle ModelTM
(PMCM) at PropertyMarketInsights.com. The
PMCM basically splits the property market
cycle into four phases: Early Bull, Late Bull,
Early Bear and Late Bear.
Figure 1.1.1a is a summarized picture of the
what the PMCM looks like. To create the
model, various data sources such as property
prices, transaction volume, the stock market
index (usually a leading indicator for the
property market) and a lot of experience and
judgment were used.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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We use the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s
(URA) Property Price Index (PPI) as a
measure of property prices.
We will now look in-depth at each of the four
phases of the PMCM.
Early Bear Market Phase
The Early Bear Market Phase (the areas
shaded red in Figure 1.1.1a) starts when
property prices start to turn negative after a
bull market. During this Phase we typically
see an acceleration of negative price growth
and decreasing volumes – in other words,
prices are falling quickly and few people are
buying property.
Historically since 1996Q3, this Phase has
lasted from 3 to 9 quarters with an average
duration of 5.7 quarters, or just under one-
and-a-half years. The average return during
the Early Bear Market Phase is -25%, with a
range from -12.7% to -39.6%. See Table 1
below for more details.
Late Bear Market Phase
The Late Bear Market Phase (the areas
shaded pink in Figure 1.1.1a) starts when
property price decreases start to slow after a
steep fall during the Early Bear Market
Phase. During this Phase we typically see
increasing volumes and conflicting signals
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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from the stock market (i.e. the stock market is
turning positive). We are nearing the trough of
the cycle. The smart money is starting to pick
up property bargains while desperate sellers
who had been holding out start to capitulate.
Historically since 1996Q3, this Phase has
lasted from 1 to 10 quarters with an average
duration of 4 quarters, or one year. The
average return during the Late Bear Market
Phase is -10%, with a range from -4.7% to -
17.7%. See Table 2 below for more details.
Early Bull Market Phase
The Early Bull Market Phase (the areas
shaded green in Figure 1.1.1a) starts when
property prices start to turn positive after a
slump. During this Phase we typically see an
acceleration of price momentum and
increasing volumes – in other words, prices
are rising quickly and lots of people are
jumping into the market to buy property.
Historically since 1996Q3, this Phase has
lasted from 4 to 14 quarters with an average
duration of 8.7 quarters, or just over 2 years.
Historically since 1996Q3, this Phase has
lasted from 4 to 14 quarters with an average
duration of 8.7 quarters, or just over 2 years.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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The average return during the Early Bull
Market Phase is 43%, with a range from
34.2% to 52.3%. See Table 3 below for more
details.
Late Bull Market Phase
The Late Bull Market Phase (the areas
shaded yellow in Figure 1.1.1a) starts when
property price increases start to slow down
after a steep runup during the Early Bull
Market Phase. During this Phase we typically
see decreasing volumes and conflicting
signals from the stock market (i.e. the stock
market is turning negative). We are nearing
the peak of the cycle. Lots of people are still
jumping on the property bandwagon and
prices are still rising (albeit more slowly) but
the smart money is selling or staying out of
the market.
Historically since 1996Q3, this Phase has
lasted from 2 to 4 quarters with an average
duration of 2.5 quarters, or just over half a
year. The average return during the Late Bull
Market Phase is 6%, with a range from 1.5%
to 10.9%.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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See Table 4 below for more details.
As of this writing, we are currently in the Late
Bull Market Phase and likely transitioning into
the Early Bear Market Phase, but are still not
there yet – the 2012Q2 URA PPI flash
estimate of a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter
increase suggests there is still bullishness left
in the market.
What Should Property Investors Do During
Each Phase of the Cycle?
The PMCM is not meant to be an academic
exercise but was created to help investors
time their property purchases and sales.
DISCLAIMER: Before describing the best
actions for investors to take at every Phase of
the Cycle, please note that the following is not
an investment recommendation and is not
guaranteed to produce a positive result.
Every investor’s personal situation is different
and every market cycle is also different. Also,
your exact investment return critically
depends on the specific property that you
buy.
The best actions offered below are based on
the historical performance of the market over
the past 3 cycles.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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Market cycles in the future will not mirror
previous cycles but they will share similar
characteristics as they are often driven by
human behaviour, which does not
fundamentally change. As Mark Twain is
attributed to have said, “History doesn’t repeat
itself, but it often rhymes.”
During the Early Bear Phase, historically the
best action to take would be to sell your
property. If you had not already sold your
property by the time we enter the Late Bear
Phase, then you should hold on to it. Investors
who have a high risk tolerance can also enter
the market to buy properties if they want to try
and pick the bottom.
In the Early Bull Phase, the best action for
investors to take would be to buy property.
Entering the Late Bull Phase, shorter term
investors would probably think about selling
their property while long term investors can
continue to hold on through the cycle. I’ve
summarized the best actions for investors to
take in the table below.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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You should know that the PMCM looks at the
overall market and the actions that investors
should generally take, but every property
purchase is a local one, and different
locations and types of properties could
perform in different ways.
By Mr. Propwise for
PropertyMarketInsights.com, a Singapore
property market research site that helps
buyers and sellers make profitable investment
decisions – subscribers get updates on where
we are in the Property Market Cycle Model to
help you time your investments.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Jun 20 – Jun 26
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
3 MERAPRIME 1,098 1,430,000 1,302 99
3 THE ANCHORAGE 1,238 1,528,000 1,234 FH
3 RIVER PLACE 1,313 1,590,000 1,211 99
3 THE ANCHORAGE 1,421 1,660,000 1,168 FH
4 THE BERTH BY THE COVE 1,658 2,919,000 1,761 99
4 THE BERTH BY THE COVE 1,604 2,726,800 1,700 99
4 THE PEARL @ MOUNT FABER 1,356 1,600,000 1,180 99
5 BOTANNIA 1,270 1,410,000 1,110 956
5 REGENT PARK 1,130 1,095,000 969 99
5 THE INFINITI 1,345 1,250,000 929 FH
5 DOVER PARKVIEW 1,345 1,075,000 799 99
5 WEST BAY CONDOMINIUM 1,345 1,040,000 773 99
7 THE PLAZA 732 858,000 1,172 99
8 KERRISDALE 1,485 1,700,000 1,144 99
8 KERRISDALE 1,259 1,300,000 1,032 99
9 SCOTTS 28 1,098 2,350,000 2,140 FH
9 THE LIGHT @ CAIRNHILL 1,690 3,250,000 1,923 FH
9 ROBERTSON EDGE 431 800,000 1,858 999
9 TOP TEN 1,496 2,500,000 1,671 FH
9 MIRAGE TOWER 2,605 4,015,000 1,541 FH
9 MIRAGE TOWER 1,496 2,230,000 1,490 FH
9 HORIZON TOWER 2,422 2,720,000 1,123 99
9 FAIRHAVEN 1,582 1,730,000 1,093 FH
10 THE ORANGE GROVE 4,047 8,900,000 2,199 FH
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
10 THE LOFT 1,453 3,051,300 2,100 99
10 GALLOP GABLES 1,195 2,020,000 1,691 FH
10 THE SIXTH AVENUE RESIDENCES 1,432 2,325,000 1,624 FH
10 THE LEGEND 2,164 3,300,000 1,525 FH
10 LEEDON 2 1,109 1,630,000 1,470 FH
10 VALLEY PARK 1,701 2,500,000 1,470 999
10 MARTINA MANSIONS 2,443 3,200,000 1,310 FH
10 CORONA VILLE 1,528 1,835,000 1,201 FH
11 AMARYLLIS VILLE 958 1,430,000 1,493 99
11 THE LINC 1,292 1,870,000 1,448 FH
11 PEPPERMINT GROVE 1,195 1,600,000 1,339 FH
11 THE ARCADIA 3,821 3,800,000 994 99
12 ONE ST MICHAEL'S 936 1,100,000 1,175 FH
12 MOONSTONE RESIDENCES 1,238 1,200,000 969 FH
12 BALESTIER PLAZA 1,367 1,220,000 892 FH
14 DAKOTA RESIDENCES 1,044 1,390,000 1,331 99
14 D'OASIA 1,098 1,270,000 1,157 FH
14 REGAL 35 915 890,000 973 FH
14 THE SUNNY SPRING 1,195 1,070,000 896 FH
15 ONE AMBER 1,335 1,829,000 1,370 FH
15 SANCTUARY GREEN 1,227 1,545,000 1,259 99
15 THE ADARA 1,098 1,320,000 1,202 FH
15 MANDARIN GARDEN CONDOMINIUM 829 940,000 1,134 99
15 COSTA RHU 2,056 2,097,120 1,020 99
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 59
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NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property
transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land
Authority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a
purchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
15 VILLA MARINA 1,087 1,015,000 934 99
15 TORIE MANSIONS 1,442 1,280,000 887 FH
15 BETA GROVE 1,668 1,400,000 839 FH
16 COSTA DEL SOL 1,313 1,668,000 1,270 99
16 RIVIERA RESIDENCES 1,238 1,485,000 1,200 FH
16 THE BAYSHORE 980 1,000,000 1,021 99
16 BAYSHORE PARK 1,292 1,300,000 1,006 99
16 BAYWATER 2,282 1,520,000 666 99
17 ESTELLA GARDENS 936 785,000 838 FH
17 DAHLIA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,270 1,010,000 795 FH
17 LOYANG TOWNHOUSES 1,938 1,480,000 764 946
17 LOYANG VALLEY 1,033 705,000 682 99
18 SAVANNAH CONDOPARK 1,023 880,000 861 99
19 KOVAN RESIDENCES 947 1,210,000 1,277 99
19 EVANIA 1,076 1,068,000 992 FH
19 REGENTVILLE 1,152 826,000 717 99
19 HOUGANG GREEN 1,141 800,008 701 99
20 THOMSON IMPERIAL COURT 1,335 1,198,000 898 FH
20 FAR HORIZON GARDENS 1,948 1,400,000 719 99
20 THOMSON PLAZA 2,852 1,650,000 578 99
21 MAPLEWOODS 1,324 1,655,000 1,250 FH
21 SOUTHAVEN II 1,453 1,540,000 1,060 999
21 PARC PALAIS 1,485 1,420,000 956 FH
21 LE WOOD 1,238 965,000 780 99
22 THE LAKESHORE 926 1,000,000 1,080 99
22 PARC VISTA 1,249 973,000 779 99
23 THE JADE 1,087 1,045,000 961 99
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
23 PARK NATURA 1,582 1,520,000 961 FH
23 GUILIN VIEW 861 815,000 946 99
23 REGENT HEIGHTS 1,023 830,000 812 99
23 HILLTOP GROVE 1,238 920,000 743 99
23 PALM GARDENS 1,206 850,000 705 99
25 ROSEWOOD 1,475 1,160,000 787 99
26 CASTLE GREEN 1,173 900,000 767 99
27 SELETARIS 1,292 1,000,000 774 FH
28 SUNRISE GARDENS 1,216 918,000 755 99
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