Southeast-ACF Drought Early Warning Information System Development Workshop Apalachicola River &...

Southeast-ACF Drought Early Warning

Information System Development Workshop

Apalachicola River & Bay

27 April 2010

WFO Drought Products Joel Lanier (Senior Service Hydrologist)

Our Motto:“We are ready for anything, and our customers know it”

Our Goal:To be the “go to” source for climate and weather information all of our

customers and partners routine and high impact needs

Operational Staff:

• 5 Lead Forecasters• 5 Journeyman Forecasters • 5 HMTs/Interns• 3 SCEPs

NWS WFOs

SSHCounties Serviced

TAE / JAX / TBW / KEY– Alabama 5 ( 5/ 0/ 0/ 0) – Florida 34 (17/15/ 1/ 1) – Georgia 40 (26/14/ 0/ 0)

Total 78 Counties – 3 State Area Total of 5 WFOs - Florida

Hydrologic ServicesWFO Jacksonville (14/28)

WFO Tallahassee (33/65)

Total (47 / 93)

NWS Tallahassee County Warning NWS Tallahassee County Warning and Forecast Areaand Forecast Area

WFO Drought Topics

• What Product does the WFO Produce

• Process used to Assess Drought

• Products used to Assess Drought

• WFO / RFC Duties

• Ways NIDIS can help

WFO Drought Product

• Synopsis

• Summary of Impacts

• Climate Summary

• Precipitation / Temperature Outlook

• Hydrologic Summary and Outlook

2-Wk Soil Moisture

Constructed Analogue Soil Model

Medium-Range Fcst

Palmer 4-moProbabilities

CPC Long-LeadPrecip. Outlook

Principal Drought Outlook InputsPrincipal Drought Outlook Inputs

Short-Range Fcst

Verdi-Pulwarty

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index.html

Synopsis

Summary of Impacts

• State and Local Mitigation

• Soil moisture / Ground Water

• Agricultural

• Fire

• Current water restrictions

• Other impacts (navigation, environmental, etc.)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/?n=droughtmonitor

State and Local Actions

• Internet Research - News

• Water Agencies– NWFWMD– SRWMD– SJRWMD– FDEP– GA EPD– AL (Locally Managed)

Soil Moisture / Ground Water

• USGS Water Watch (AL, FL, GA)

• Comparison to previous droughts

• Long period surface flows

• Long period well depths

• Rainfall accumulations

• Soil Moisture Charts

Floridian Aquifer

http://ga.water.usgs.gov/

Well 08K001 – Early CountyLatitude 31°22'38",   Longitude 84°39'17"   NAD27Early County, Georgia   , Hydrologic Unit 03130009 Well depth: 125 feet Hole depth: 125 feetLand surface altitude: 230 feet above sea level NGVD29. Well completed in "Floridan aquifer system" (S400FLORDN) national aquifer. Well completed in "Upper Floridan Aquifer" (120FLRDU) local aquifer

Soil Moisture

Agriculture

• Phone Contacts with County Extension

• Phone contact with Agriculture Officials

• Review of latest Ag Bulletins

Fire Impacts

• Review of current Fire conditions and on going fires

• KBDI Index (National and State levels)

Current Water Restrictions

• Internet Research - News• Water Agencies

– NWFWMD– SRWMD– SJRWMD– FDEP– GA EPD– AL (Locally Managed)– Local Water Authorities

Floridian Aquifer

Floridian Aquifer Cross Section

Other Impacts (Navigation etc.)

• Future considerations– Fisheries– Navigation– Environment?

Climate Summary

Precipitation / Temperature Outlook

Hydrologic Summary & Outlook

• USGS Water Watch (AL, FL, GA)

• Comparison to previous droughts

• Long period surface flows

• Long period well depths

• Rainfall accumulations

• River conditions

• Flow Statistics

Hydrologic Comparisons

http://fl.water.usgs.gov/infodata/duration/tallahassee.html

Chipola River near Altha, FLA

Drought Products Issued

• 2005 – 1

• 2006 – 19

• 2007 – 28

• 2008 – 14

• 2009 – 2

• 2010 – 0

Total - 64

RFC Water Resource Forecasting

RFC Water Resource Forecasting

NWS Drought Links

• http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/html/drought.htm• http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/?n=hydrology• http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/?n=wro

What is needed from NIDIS

• Need County Specific Drought Information

• Single Source: State Climatology? Maps– Agriculture conditions– Crops and Hay– Water supply conditions (Sfc and Ground)– Soil Moisture– Fire conditions– Drought Declarations and Water Restrictions

Drought - Positives

Deadheading Cypress Logs Economic Activity

Photos Courtesy of: Bryan Loveless (http://www.recoveredhollowlog.com/about.php)

Mar 2005

Mar 2006

Mar 2007

Mar 2008

Aug 2008 (Fay)

Mar 2009

Mar 2010

2005 Total Departure

2006 Total Departure

2007 Total Departure

2008 Total Departure

Jan 2009

Mar 2009

Apr 2009

2009 Total Departure

Greetings from the best location and the best staff in the NWS