Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project · Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis...

ActiveProject(2013-2014)

SpaceMissionHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)ProjectCenterInnovationFund:JSCCIF(AlsoIncludesJSCIRAD)ProgramOfficeOfSafetyAndMissionAssurance(OSMA)

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AppliedResearch Development Demo&Test

ProjectTechnologyMaturity

ABSTRACT

ThepurposeoftheSpaceMissionHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)Projectisto

extendcurrentground-basedHRAriskpredictiontechniquestoalong-duration,

space-basedtool.Ground-basedHRAmethodologyhasbeenshowntobea

reasonabletoolforshort-durationspacemissions,suchasSpaceShuttleand

lunarfly-bys.However,longer-durationdeep-spacemissions,suchasasteroid

andMarsmissions,willrequirethecrewtobeinspaceforaslongas400to900

daymissionswithperiodsofextendedautonomyandself-sufficiency.

Currentindicationsshowhigherriskduetofatigue,physiologicaleffectsdue

to...Readmoreonthelastpage.

TechnologyArea: HumanHealth,LifeSupport&HabitationSystemsTA06(Primary)Modeling,Simulation,InformationTechnology&ProcessingTA11(Secondary)

ANTICIPATEDBENEFITS

ToNASAfundedmissions:HRAprovidesariskpredicyionanlysistoolforassessingthehuman’sroleintheHuman

SystemIntegration(HSI)process(human,hardware,andsoftware).Ingeneral,thisproject

extendsourcurrentunderstandingofcrewreliabilityforlongdurationspacemissionsby

assessingthehumanerrorprobabilityportionoftheHSIprocesstoyieldsaferandmore

reliablehumanspacemissions.

TheNASAJohnsonSpaceCenterSafetyandMissionAssuranceDirectorate(S&MA)

currentlyperformsHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)forallhumanspaceprograms’

ProbabilisticRiskAssessment(PRAs),excepttheInternationalSpaceStation...

Readmoreonthelastpage.

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https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20140004419 2019-06-13T04:13:57+00:00Z

Contributing

Partners

IdahoNationalLaboratory

DETAILEDDESCRIPTION

Thepurposeofthisprojectistoextendcurrentground-basedHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)

techniquestoalong-duration,space-basedtooltomoreeffectivelypredicttheriskassociatedwith

humanactionsonlong-durationmissions.Bydoingso,theagencywillbeabletofocusresources

ontheriskdrivers,suchasspecifictraining,conditioning,procedures,exercising,etc.forthese

futuremissions.NASAusesProbabilisticRiskAssessments(PRAs)toassesstheprobabilityof

LossofCrew(LOC)andLossofMission(LOM).PRAstakeintoaccountmultiplecontributing

factorsandtheirinteractions,suchashowthecrew,software,andhardwareworktogetherto

achievemissionobjectives.HRAisusedtoassessthehumancontributiontoriskinPRAs.Current

HRAtechniquesweredevelopedforgroundapplicationsusingEarthbasedhumanreliabilitydata

toestimatehumanerrorprobability.Theseground-basedHRAtechniqueshavebeenshowntobe

areasonabletoolforshort-durationspacemissions,suchasSpaceShuttleandlunarfly-bys.

However,longer-durationbeyondEarthorbitmissions,suchasasteroidandMarsmissions,will

requirecrewstobeinspacefor400to...

SpaceMissionHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)Project

OtherOrganizations

PerformingWork

IdahoNationalLaboratory

MANAGEMENT

ProgramExecutive:JohnFalker

ProgramManager:RonaldGClaytonProjectManager:

RogerBoyerPrincipalInvestigator:

RogerBoyer

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U.S.stateswithwork

Leadcenter:JohnsonSpaceCenter

Supportingcenters:JohnsonSpaceCenter

SpaceMissionHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)Project

DETAILEDDESCRIPTION(CONT'D)

900dayswithperiodsofextendedautonomyandself-sufficiency.Currentindicationsshowhigherriskdueto

fatigue,physiologicaleffectsduetoextendedlowgravityenvironments,andothers,whichmayimpactHRA

predictionsbyaffectingthecrew’scognitiveabilities,aswellastheirphysiology,andyieldahigherprobabilityfor

LOCandLOM(e.g.earlyreturn).PRAswillneedtoaccountfortheseaffectsinordertoprovidemanagement,

designers,andthecrewourbestestimateofrisk.

WiththefundingofthisIR&Dprojectoverthenextthreeyears,Safety&MissionAssurance(S&MA)willcollaborate

withHumanHealth&Performance(HH&P)toestablishwhatiscurrentlyusedtoassesshumanreliabilityforhuman

spaceprograms,identifyhumanperformancefactorsthatmaybesensitivetolongdurationspaceflight,collect

availablehistoricaldata,andupdatecurrenttoolstoaccountforperformanceshapingfactorsbelievedtobe

importanttosuchmissions.JSC’sHumanSystemIntegration(HSI)initiativeisaworkinprogresstobetter

understandhowthecrew,software,andhardwareworktogetherandensurethatHSIisaccountedforinfuture

spacemissiondesigns.

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SpaceMissionHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)Project

TECHNOLOGYDETAILS

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AppliedResearch

Development Demo&Test

SpaceBasedHuman

ReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)

TechnologyMaturity

Thepurposeofthisprojectistoextendcurrentground-basedHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)

techniquestoalong-duration,space-basedtooltomoreeffectivelypredicttheriskassociated

withhumanactionsonlong-durationmissions.Bydoingso,theagencywillbeabletofocus

resourcesontheriskdrivers,suchasspecifictraining,conditioning,procedures,exercising,etc.

forthesefuturemissions.NASAusesProbabilisticRiskAssessments(PRAs)toassessthe

probabilityofLossofCrew(LOC)andLossofMission(LOM).PRAstakeintoaccountmultiple

contributingfactorsandtheirinteractions,suchashowthecrew,software,andhardwarework

togethertoachievemissionobjectives.HRAisusedtoassessthehumancontributiontoriskin

PRAs.CurrentHRAtechniquesweredevelopedforgroundapplicationsusingEarthbased

humanreliabilitydatatoestimatehumanerrorprobability.Theseground-basedHRA

techniqueshavebeenshowntobeareasonabletoolforshort-durationspacemissions,such

asShuttleandlunarfly-bys.However,longer-durationbeyondEarthorbitmissions,suchas

asteroidandMarsmissions,willrequirecrewstobeinspacefor400to900dayswithperiodsof

extendedautonomyandself-sufficiency.Currentindicationsshowhigherriskduetofatigue,

physiologicaleffectsduetoextendedlowgravityenvironments,andothers,whichmayimpact

HRApredictionsbyaffectingthecrew’scognitiveabilities,aswellastheirphysiology,andyield

ahigherprobabilityforLOCandLOM(e.g.earlyreturn).PRAswillneedtoaccountforthese

affectsinordertoprovidemanagement,designers,andthecrewourbestestimateofrisk.

usingcurrentground-basedhumanreliabilityanalysis(HRA)techniquescombinedwithwhat

NASAhaslearnedfromyearsofhumanexperienceinspacetoproduceanHRAapproachfor

long-durationspacemissions.

Thistechnologyiscategorizedasfirmwareforengineering,design,modeling,oranalysis

Technology...

PerformanceMetrics

Metric Unit Quantity

report 1 1

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SpaceMissionHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)Project

TECHNOLOGYDETAILS

TECHNOLOGYDESCRIPTION(CONT'D)Area

TA06HumanHealth,LifeSupport&HabitationSystems(Primary)

TA11Modeling,Simulation,InformationTechnology&Processing(Secondary)

CAPABILITIESPROVIDEDTheNASAJohnsonSpaceCenterSafetyandMissionAssuranceDirectorate(S&MA)currentlyperformsHuman

ReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)forallhumanspaceprograms’ProbabilisticRiskAssessment(PRAs),exceptthe

InternationalSpaceStation(ISS).HumanHealthandPerformance(HH&P)istherecognizedsubjectmatterexpert

forHH&P.Inordertosafelyexecutealong-durationmission,wemusthaveamoreaccurateHRApredictionmodel.

Thiscollaborationisaimedattakingcurrentknowledgeandmodifyingtheapproachusedforshort-duration

missionstoproduceamethodthatcanbeappliedtolong-durationmissions.Itisutilizingtheexperienceand

resourcesofthosewhoperformHRAatNASAwithHH&P’sdataandexpertisetoupgradethecurrentapproach

basedonexistinghumanresearchandoperationaldata.S&MAandHH&Pbeganacoupleofyearsagotoidentify

allofthefactorsthatmayinfluencehumanperformanceinspace,andultimatelythesuccessofthemission.The

resulting“factormap”willbeleveragedbythisprojecttoidentifywhichfactorsmaybethemostinfluencebylong-

durationmissions.Programswanttoimplementtechnologythatisaffordable,reliable,andrepeatable.Thisproject

isaimedatdevelopinganHRAmethodthatwillmeetthosethreecriteriawhenExplorationSystemsDevelopment

(ESD)isabletostrategicallyplanforlong-durationmissions.

NASAiscurrentlyassessingtherisk(lossofcrewandlossofmission)forlong-durationspacemissions,suchasto

Mars.Thistoolwillhelpestablishthecontributionofcrewtotheoverallmissionriskaswellashelpingtoidentify

whereimprovementscanbemadeviatraining,crewequipment,andautonomousfunctions.

POTENTIALAPPLICATIONSperforminghumanreliabilityanalysisforlongdurationspace...

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SpaceMissionHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)Project

TECHNOLOGYDETAILS

POTENTIALAPPLICATIONS(CONT'D)missions.

NASAiscurrentlyassessingtherisk(lossofcrewandlossofmission)forlong-durationspacemissions,suchasto

Mars.Thistoolwillhelpestablishthecontributionofcrewtotheoverallmissionriskaswellashelpingtoidentify

whereimprovementscanbemadeviatraining,crewequipment,andautonomousfunctions.

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SpaceMissionHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)Project

ABSTRACT(CONTINUEDFROMPAGE1)

extendedlowgravityenvironments,andothers,mayimpactHRApredictions.Forthisproject,Safety&Mission

Assurance(S&MA)willworkwithHumanHealth&Performance(HH&P)toestablishwhatiscurrentlyusedto

assesshumanreliabiiltyforhumanspaceprograms,identifyhumanperformancefactorsthatmaybesensitiveto

longdurationspaceflight,collectavailablehistoricaldata,andupdatecurrenttoolstoaccountforperformance

shapingfactorsbelievedtobeimportanttosuchmissions.ThiseffortwillalsocontributedatatotheHuman

PerformanceDataRepositoryandinfluencetheSpaceHumanFactorsEngineeringresearchrisksandgaps(part

oftheHRPProgram).AnaccurateriskpredictormitigatesLossofCrew(LOC)andLossofMission(LOM).Theend

resultwillbeanupdatedHRAmodelthatcaneffectivelypredictriskonlong-durationmissions.

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SpaceMissionHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)Project

ANTICIPATEDBENEFITS

ToNASAfundedmissions:(CONT'D)(ISS).HumanHealthandPerformance(HH&P)istherecognizedsubjectmatterexpertforHH&P.

HH&Phasexpertiseinhumanerrortestingofhuman-systeminterfacedesignandperformance,behavioral,

physiologicalhealth,andperformanceresearchonlong-durationspace-flightimpacts,andeffectiveandaffordable

humanfactorsmethodologies.Theresultingtoolcanbeusedbybothorganizationstoimprovecrewsafety,

performance,anddesignoffuturemissions,suchasMars,asteroid,andlunarsurfacemissions.HRAisalso

requiredforhumanratingofexplorationflights.TheESDhaslong-durationspaceflightmissionsidentifiedintheir

“Architectural”DRMs.AnupdatedHRAmodelthatcanaccuratelypredictriskonsuchmissionswillbeneededby

ESDinthenearfutureinordertoverifytheLOCrequirementsofthesemissions.

Aspace-basedHRAcanbeused:

TohelpguideanddesigntheautonomysupportingthehumanaspectoftheHSItrianglebyinformingthe

designersastothelikelihoodofthecrewperformingtheintendedaction.Forexample,onemusttakeinto

accounthowthecrewmemberinteractswithitandhowthecrewmemberbenefitsfromit.ThisisarolethatHRA

canprovideandthespacebasedadditioncanmakeitmorespecifictofuturelongdurationspacemissions.

Tohelpplanmissiontrainingandoperations.OurcurrentHRAapproachiscognitive-based,thuscanbedirectly

applicabletoaddressingcognitiveperformanceissues.UpgradingourHRAapproachtoincludelongduration

spacemissionattributes,suchasfatigueandlowgravityphysiologicaleffects,isapplicabletorisk-rankingthis

HATneed.

Andfinallytofirsthelpassessthelikelihoodofhumanerrorandthentoassesstheproposedimprovementto

determinetheworthinessoftheeffort.Indevelopingon-boarddecisionsupporttools,thedesignermustkeepthe

crewinmindfortheenvironmentandconditionofalongdurationspacemission.Thisprojectwillprovide

informationastohowthedesignbenefitsordegradesitssupportandcrewtrainingbeforeandduringthe

mission.

ToNASAunfunded&plannedmissions:ThiseffortwillalsocontributedatatotheHumanPerformanceDataRepositoryandinfluencetheSpaceHFE

researchrisksandgapsaspartoftheHRP.TheHRPisactivelydoingresearchonlong-durationperformanceand

theimpactsthatlong-durationspaceflightmayhaveonthehuman.TheresultsoftheHRPresearch,analogstudies,

andworkonperformanceshapingfactorscanbeleveragedtoupdatethemodel.FCIOperationalHabitability

DatabasecanalsobeleveragedfortheISSandShuttleoperationalhumanperformancedata.Themodelforlong-

durationsmissionswillonlybeas...

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SpaceMissionHumanReliabilityAnalysis(HRA)Project

ANTICIPATEDBENEFITS

ToNASAunfunded&plannedmissions:(CONT'D)goodasthedataavailabletoinput,thusitiscriticalthatwetakethetimetoidentifyallofthedatarequired.This

effortmayalsobenefittheHRPinplanningofresearchinthefield,byhighlightingfocusareasneededformore

accuratepredictions.Inthistimeofdoingmorewithless,HRPmaybeabletofocusonasmallernumberoffactors,

aspredictedbythemethod.

Toothergovernmentagencies:Dependingontheresultsoftheproposeddataanalysis,long-termeffectsonhumanisolationandfatiguemay

applytotheUSNavy’ssubmarinecrewsandAntarcticaexpeditions,aswellastheUSCoastGuard.

Tothecommercialspaceindustry:asthecommercialspaceindustryexpandstolongerdurationmissionsand/orbeyondlowEarthorbit,thesame

effectsobservedbyNASAwillalsobeapplicabletocommercialcrews.

Tothenation:ThiswillbethefirstHRAapproachdevelopedforspacemissions.Havingthistoolwillhelpbetterunderstandthe

risksassociatedwithcrewedmissions,thushelpingtoidentifywhatneedstobeaddressedtoreduceriskandwhat

needsadditionalstudying.

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