State of International Electricity Markets & Stranded...

State of International Electricity Markets & Stranded Asset Risk

Transformative change is occurring in the electric industry due to

unprecedented shifts in policy and advances in technology”

Edison International CEO Theodore Craver, March 2016

Tim Buckley, Director of Energy Finance Studies, Australasia tbuckley@ieefa.org

Gymea May 2016

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AGENDA The Global Electricity Market Transformation

1. Global thermal coal demand is in structural decline China India America Japan Germany

2. Stranded Assets Risk is Increasing 3. Renewables are deflationary

Technology gains and economies of scale Batteries will transform distributed solar on rooftops from 2018.

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1. A long cyclical downturn or structural decline?

China Shenhua Energy’s Chairman in March 2016 reported: “The pace of adjustments to the global energy structure

in the short run will speed up and the trend of lowering the consuming proportion of fossil fuel energy will be obvious and the demand of fossil fuel energy including coal will steadily decrease. … the structural adjustments to the coal and electricity sectors will accelerate.”

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Source: 2015 Annual Results Review, March 2016 1/06/2016

1. A long cyclical downturn or structural decline?

China State Grid’s Chairman in February stated: The only hurdle to overcome is "mindset," Liu

said. "There's no technical challenge at all."

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http://www.eenews.net/energywire/2016/02/26/stories/1060033055 1/06/2016

5 Energy Demand in China: IEA

Along with energy efficiency, structural shifts in China’s economy favouring expansion of services, mean less energy is

required to generate economic growth. But the 2014-2016 coal decline suggests the IEA is still underestimating this trend. 1/06/2016

1.1 China’s Electricity Sector Transformation

China added 32GW new wind and 15-18GW of

solar in 2015

Year to Dec 2015: China GDP +6.9% Electricity +0.5%

Coal consumption -4% Coal imports -30%

Source: Citi Commodities, Tony Yuen, June 2014; “Energy Markets in Transformation” http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/15/china-economy-output-coal-idUKL4N0ZV1FX20150715

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YTD to April 2016: China GDP +6.5% Electricity +0.9%

Thermal kWh -3.2% Coal produced -6.8%

Thermal imports* -20% * Jan-Feb’2016

1.2 India India’s Energy Minister Goyal stated November 2014:

1. Plans to transformation of the entire Indian electricity system with

175GW of renewable energy installs by 2021/22. This involves a doubling of wind installs to 6GW and lifting solar installs tenfold to 10GW pa.

2. A plan for a US$50bn national grid upgrade to drive grid efficiency.

3. Plans to more than double India’s domestic coal production to 1.5Bn tpa by 2021, requiring a massive investment in rail infrastructure, coal handling and preparation plants plus major new mine development.

4. Goyal: “I'm very confident of achieving these targets and am very confident that India's current account deficit will not be burdened with the amount of money we lose for imports of coal. Possibly in the next two or three years we should be able to stop imports of thermal coal.“

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1.2 India

After the 18.5% yoy decline Jan-April 2016 imports, Energy Minister Piyush Goyal stated rather categorically:

“Indian companies used to import a lot of thermal coal. We want to completely stop its import over the next 2-3 years. We have already reduced imports by Rs280bn. We will save Rs400bn."

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http://www.businesstoday.in/current/policy/govt-considering-thermal-coal-import-in-two-three-years/story/231166.html 1/06/2016

1.2 India – Solar Tariffs Are Falling Rapidly 9

Jan 2016: A new low utility solar of Rs4.34/kWh (US$64/MWh) was set: zero indexation for 25 years – 25% lower than one year earlier. This is down from Rs18/kWh seven years back.

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1.3 US 10

America’s thermal coal: down 45% by 2016 vs 2008 peak

1. Collapsing US coal exports – too expensive on the global cost curve, and the US$ strength vs all major coal exporters; down 20% yoy in 2016.

2. Coal power plant closures - 102GW of coal-fired power plants slated for closure by 2020 due to EPA air, water and ash pond pollution rules and the Clean Power Plan. The US reports a net 33GW of coal plant closures over 2010-2015 (10% of the 285GW coal fleet), with almost no new coal additions.

3. Renewables – US push into wind (9GW in 2015) and solar (9GW in 2015) rapid and accelerating, until 2020 at least (PTC/ITC cliff). Oct 2015 saw a solar utility PPA in Texas signed at US$40/MWh flat, the lowest ever (until Dubai in May 2016 @ US$30/MWh, unsubsidised).

4. Domestic gas vs coal – the US$ Henry Hub gas price collapse over 2012-2016 has improved gas competitiveness, with over 100GW of new gas-fired capacity in the US planning system. US domestic coal volumes are -10% yoy 2015, and -33% yoy YTD 2016. UBS forecasts coal fired power share of total capacity will fall from 28% in 2015 to 20% by 2030.

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1.3 US Electricity Transformation 11

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1.3 US Electricity Transformation 12

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1.4 Japan 13

Japan’s thermal coal demand outlook: down 3% pa

1. Energy efficiency – 12% decline in electricity demand from 2010-2015 despite 1% pa GDP growth (a 3% pa reduction in electricity intensity)

2. Nuclear restart – The key question is the rate of restarts for 42GW of nuclear capacity – US$50bn of idle assets. Third restart Feb’2016.

3. Solar surge – Japan installed 7GW in 2013, 10GW in 2014 and 9GW in 2014; part of a 79GW pipeline of approved projects. Offshore wind plan post 2020.

4. LNG vs coal vs oil – relative price moves, Japanese LNG pricing has halved in US$ terms over 2014-16. Japan has signed over 1000Bcf/year of new US LNG supply contracts due online by 2020.

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1.5 German Electricity Transformation 14

Energiewende: renewable sources to increase to 40-45% by

2025 and to >80% by 2050 1/06/2016

Massive additional investments in efficiency, renewables, nuclear power and other low carbon technologies are required to reach a 2

°C pathway – The IEA New Policies Scenario is no longer valid.

1.7 Thermal Coal Export Price Collapse

Newcastle Export 6,000kcal Thermal US$/t – at a decade low

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1.5 Thermal Coal Export Profit Collapse The global seaborne thermal coal market is operating at gross cashflow

breakeven on average – the current coal price is lower than Dec’2015 dashed line

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2. Structural decline and stranded assets?

The Equity markets are factoring in structural decline as an increasingly likely probability.

Coal Equities are proving a wealth hazard!

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2.1 USA: Peabody Energy 19

Patriot Coal, Walter Energy and Alpha Natural Resources each entered

Chapter 11 in May, July and August 2015 respectively, plus Arch Coal in January and Peabody in April 2016.

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Australia: Whitehaven & New Hope 20

Bandanna Energy (Oct 2014) and Cockatoo Coal (Nov 2015) in administration.

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Australia: Origin Energy & Santos 21

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2.2 Stranded Assets – European Utilities 22

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the total value of writedowns in the

European utility sector is €104bn

since 2010

2.3 Structural decline means Stranded Assets Examples of Stranded Assets in Australia: 1. WICET: a $4bn coal port and $1bn rail line, 100% debt financed. ToP liabilities put

Bandanna Energy in administration Sept’2014. Cockatoo Coal admin in 2015. 2. Newcastle Coal Port: Westpac and China Merchants bought this for 27x EV/EBITDA

in 2014. T4 A$4.8bn 70Mtpa capacity expansion stranded. 3. CLP A$435m writedown of Yallourn, Feb’2014: “Yallourn has suffered from

declining demand and oversupply of base load energy in Victoria”. 4. Lanco’s Griffin Coal: In 2011 Lanco of India made a $740m WA coal acquisition

that has lost money at the EBITDA level ever since. Lanco is in financial distress. 5. China Shenhua: Has spent A$700m since 2008 on the Watermark coal proposal,

A$1.2bn of capex and payments to government still to go ($500m rehabilitation?). 6. Isaac Plains – Sumitomo Corp of Japan: sold a 50% stake acquired for $430m in

2011 for $1 in July 2015, possibly avoiding $30-40m of rehabilitation liabilities in the process.

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2.3 Structural decline means Stranded Assets (cont)

1. GVK Power: Spent US$1.26bn for Hancock’s Alpha, Galilee proposal in 2011, was unable to make final US$560m payment in Sept’2014. Totally stranded, can’t write project off.

2. Adani Enterprise Carmichael proposal: Still to raise A$10bn of capital. SBI refused US$1bn loan. Sacked 6 engineering firms and 90% of staff in July 2015. CBA and Standard Chartered advisory mandates gone.

3. Queensland LNG export terminals: following a halving of US$ Asian LNG prices post oil collapse, this US$75bn investment will not deliver the expected returns forecast.

4. Peabody Energy: A$6.4bn debt, Chapter 11 in April 2016. 5. Mining Services: The implication of a sustained downturn in the resources

sector has dramatic flow-on implications for the mining services sector, from Downer EDI, WorleyParsons to Wesfarmers’ Industrial Supplies.

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3 Renewable Energy is driven by technology

Source: Canadian Solar, May 2015

Solar technology gains are continuing to build:

unstoppable. The best modules by

2017 will be 22-23% vs global average of 15% in

2015. Oct’2015 saw a Texas

solar PPA at US$40/MWh flat,

thanks to the ITC, and India saw a

US$64/MWh PPA, Dubai a world record low

US$30/MWh in May 2016.

Canadian Solar Multi-cell efficiency progress

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3.1 Renewable Energy is deflationary

Source: UBS Solar and Alternative Energy, 1Q16 Playbook, 27 April 2016

Balance of System (BOS) and Solar Module Costs – 2013 to 2020(e) US$/w

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Solar technology gains are continuing to build. First Solar’s March 2016 Analyst Day projected all in 2017 installed system costs of US$0.80-0.90/w by 2017, a 12% annual

decline. 1Q2016 average conversion efficiency was 16.2% +150bps yoy.

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3.2 Storage is coming, rapidly 27

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