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Check-list for Quality Assurance Buryatia-2030 – an expert group, committed to designing solutions for strategic planning of the region Founded in 2014 by Buryatia-born practitioners with international backgrounds and experts in various fields Looks into standing problems and future challenges from the perspective of the heritage to be left for the future generations POSITION PAPER: CHECK-LIST firm criteria and expectations that the regional government should address when re-designing development priorities Meeting expectations of stakeholders Incomes policy – sound sources of growth Horizon-scanning: opportunities Natural resource management and environment policy Human capital policy Institutions and regulation Meeting federal regulation requirements POSITION PAPER: CHECK-LIST firm criteria and expectations that the regional government should address when re-designing development priorities Meeting expectations of stakeholders Incomes policy – sound sources of growth Horizon-scanning: opportunities Natural resource management and environment policy Human capital policy Institutions and regulation Meeting federal regulation requirements 3
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1
STRATEGY FOR BURYATIA: Looking into 2030 and Beyond
2
Drivers for Buryatia’s Strategy Update
Need for a NEW SOCIAL CONTRACT in the changing economic and political environment
Economic slowdown
Resource limitations
New political cycle: coming governor
elections
Previous Strategy up to 2025 not fully delivered
Requirements of the new Federal Law 172-FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”
Synchronization of federal, regional and municipal-level strategic planning documents: state programmes, budget forecast, territorial
planning
3
Check-list for Quality AssuranceBuryatia-2030 – an expert group, committed to designing solutions for strategic planning of the region
Founded in 2014 by Buryatia-born practitioners with international backgrounds and experts in various fields
Looks into standing problems and future challenges from the perspective of the heritage to be left for the future generations
POSITION PAPER: CHECK-LIST firm criteria and expectations that the regional government should
address when re-designing development priorities
• Meeting expectations of stakeholders• Incomes policy – sound sources of
growth• Horizon-scanning: opportunities• Natural resource management and
environment policy• Human capital policy• Institutions and regulation• Meeting federal regulation
requirements
4
Survey “Vision-2030”
Fundamental values of the new strategy?
• A “2 out of 3” choice requested between values of sustainable development
Industries / spheres to be prioritized?
SWOT
• strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for the Republic in the changing world
VALUES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
1. Breakthrough economic growth: development of innovative and competitive industries and services, integration into global production chains, attraction of large investors, growth rate of gross regional product no less than 8% per year
2. Social balance and protection: preservation of traditional balance between main social groups, equal access to public services (education and health), employment; respect for cultural and social diversity
3. Environment safety: conservation of natural resources for future generations and reducing environmental pollution
24 October – 7 November 2015
5
Respondents
43 respondents
Moscow Ulan-Ude Another region of Russia
Abroad
16
21
1
5
Place of residence
Over 50 years
16 – 30 years30 – 50 years
Age
Student
Civil servant
Researcher / Lecturer
Entrepreneur
Other
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Occupation
6
5 alternative models: groups with shared values and solutions
Universal and Harmonic Welfare; 5
Innovations and Environment; 14
Buryat Break-
through; 7
Society and Envi-ronment: What
Shall Be Left to Our Children?; 11
School, Village, Bury-atia; 6
Social balance and equality Environment safety
Social balance and equality
Breakthrough economic growth
Breakthrough economic growthEnvironment safety
Breakthrough economic growthSocial balance and equality
7
Common grounds: Top-10 industries / spheres of attention
A clearly articulated
policy needed
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Agriculture
Food industry
Power industry
Information tech-nologies
Mining industry
Education
Tourism
Culture
Environmental pro-tection
Resource-saving technologies
8
StrengthsNatural gifts • Clean environment for tourism and agriculture
• Rich natural resources: minerals (including gold and jade), forestry, water
• Baikal lake: 1/5 of world fresh water resources
Geographic location
• Close location to growing Asian markets: China, Korea, Mongolia
Productive capacity
• Industrial potential: machine-building (helicopter plant)• Well-established education infrastructure (4 universities for 1
mln population)
Human capital • Attractive cultural heritage• Hospitality• Cultural and religious tolerance• High level of education and in-built values of education
9
Internal “enemies” (weaknesses)Weak institutions and elites
• Corruption, nepotism• Weak institutions• Tribalism and psychology of short-term gains among political elites• Absence of development “lighthouses” – benchmarks• Absence of national idea / inspiration, long-term strategic vision• Discouragement of entrepreneurship • Dependence from public sector: investments and employment
Decreasing quality of human capital
• High debt load of population, low financial literacy of population• Widespread poverty• Absenteeism and social indifference• Aging population• Spread of alcoholism and drug addiction• Education not matching economic demand• Short-term gains-focused education, lack of complex vision with population• Low level of technological expertise in resource management (minerals, water)
Production barriers
• Deindustrialization - reduction of the value-generating industrial sector• Environmental burden: “Baikal” factor• Low spread of internet use• Low quality and high cost of energy & transport infrastructure
Weak nature-saving culture
• Weak nature-saving culture, little knowledge and responsibility
10
Tackling “internal enemies”Weak institutions and elites
• Propaganda and empowering Rule of law• Improving transparency of decision-making• Criminal penalties for corruption• Competitive employment process, especially in the government • Building strong political will of the Government• Change of ruling elites • Empowering civil society, public control institutions• Improving regulatory regime and financial resource availability for SMEs, with clear
monitoring and evaluation• Strong strategy for Buryats - 10, 20, 50 years (as Tatars)• Equal rent distribution
Decreasing quality of human capital
• Investments into education, link with the best technologies• Common educational standards• Transformation of mind and behavior: vision and horizons widening, building values of
self made men• Large scale program of agriculture development, creating jobs in rural areas
Production barriers
• Lowering tariffs for energy• Use of new energy sources• Building new transport routes• Improving infrastructure quality• Innovative financing tools• Public private partnership
Weak nature-saving culture
• Learning best international practices of saving environment
11
OpportunitiesDemand for natural and cultural gifts
• Growing demand for environmentally clean tourist destinations (internal tourists from Russia, as well as from China, Korea and Japan)
• Growing demand for resources (fresh water and minerals, gold and jade)• Growing interest to Baikal and local cultural and historic heritage (Mongol empire, Hunnu
empire)
Access to fast-growing markets
• International transport & logistics projects: Great Silk Road• 3 bln people within 3 hours flight distance (including 1 bln of Asian middle class) • Rise of middle-class in China• “Turn to the East” policy of Russia: support for investment projects with China and other
Asian countries
Demand for production
• Growing demand within Buryatia for high quality products and services• Rise of military tensions as a source of demand for defense technologies and products
(helicopters)• Growing demand for food, and especially for environmentally clean food due to global
population growth
Other advantages
• Rising labour cost in China (as a factor for machine-building and industrial production) • Technological innovations: 6th wave of innovations – energy & resource-saving innovations
for agricultural production (drought-resilient crops), bio-medicine• Crisis sanitation in economics will clear the ground for new industries• Wider use of alternative energy sources• Growing mobility of population, visa-free regimes
12
ThreatsAccess to fast-growing markets
• trade barriers at target markets (unclear effects of trade regulation in Asia)
• economic slowdown in China• negative demography: reduction of population,
ageing, brain-drain• loss of control over the resources possessed (to
foreign extracting companies)
• Improving and promoting public image of the republic
• Active use of diaspora links
Relationship with the Federation
• bad federal policy towards Buryatia: focus on resource-extraction, lack of federal investments and support (including into human capital)
• loss of control over the resources possessed (to the federal center)
• federal-level political and economic isolationist policy – worsening political and economic environment around Russia
• federal-level regulatory barriers, including tax policy and lack of predictability
• growing competition among regions for investmentsGlobal trends
• deepening economic crisis in the world and Russia• climate change, environmental and natural disasters
13
TODAY’S DISCUSSION: Better Solutions Needed
How to improve?
• Converting weaknesses into strengths– Risk of losing control over resources possessed -
investments into technological expertise / excellence in risk zones. Forestry, water management.
– High debt load - financial literacy / excellence programs, control tools
• Identifying remote lighthouses - next generation technologies / solutions (Japan, Finland)
• Answering what not to do, rather than what to do
WHAT ELSE?
What to improve?
• Incomes policy – sound sources of growth
• Access to markets
• Natural resource management and environment policy
• Human capital policy
• Institutions and regulation
14
Thank you!
15
Annex. 5 alternative models
Model 1. Universal and Harmonic WelfareVALUES Breakthrough economic growth
Social balance and equality
Agriculture 9%
Transport and logistics
9%
Power industry
4%
Mining industry4%
Education13%
Health9%
Social protection9%
Tourism13%
Culture13%
Environmental protection
13%
Employment4%
Priority spheres/industries• Influx of tourists • Increase of the middle class,
unemployment and stratification reduction
• Careful attitude to natural and human resources
• Qualitative improvement of transport infrastructure, increase the number of foreign tourists, etc.
• Availability and quality of services in health, education, social protection; 100% employment in the Republic.
• Extend lifespan, reduce mortality, increase birth rate, improve living standards and the welfare of society.
• High wages, decent working conditions, prevent leakage of valuable specialists to other regions.
Indicators of success
Model 1. Authors
over 50 years
16 – 30 years
30 – 50 years
Age
Student
Doctor
Other
Occupation
Model 2. Innovations and EnvironmentVALUES Breakthrough economic growth
Environmental safety
Agriculture16%
Food industry13%
Machine-building industry
5%
Transport and Logistics
3%
Power industry
9%
Trade2%
Finance2%
Information technology5%
Mining industry3%
Education11%
Health2%
Tourism9%
Culture5%
Environmental protection
9%
Em-ploy
ment2% Resource-saving technologies
6%
Priority spheres/industries Indicators of success• Economic development of the region• GRP growth +2% above neighbors – Irkutsk and
Chita• Market demand of local products or services• Employment, increase in average wages in the
Republic.• Unemployment reduction, improvement of quality
of life.• Growth in production, deep processing and export
of organic agricultural products at least 10% per year. Growth in tourism at least 10% per year (first of all ecological tourism).
• Growth of environmental safety of region, the purity of lake Baikal, raise cultural and educational level of the population.
• Competitiveness of the economy, improve the position in the ranking of socio-economic situation of regions, reduce corruption.
• High wages, preservation of region`s significant resources.
Model 2. Authors
30 – 50 years16 – 30 years
over 50 years
Age
Entrepreneur
Civil servant
Researcher/Lecturer
Student
Top-manager
Financial analyst
Specialist
Occupation
Model 3. Buryat BreakthroughVALUES Breakthrough economic growth
Agriculture19%
Food industry10%
machine-building industry
10%Transport and
Logistics6%
Trade6%
Finance3%
Information technology6%
Mining industry3%
Health3%
Tourism10%
Culture6%
Environmental protection
6%
Employment 6%
Resource-saving technologies 6%
Priority spheres/industries Indicators of success• Economic growth• Consolidation of the political elite around a
common goal, approval of development strategy of region by central government, attracting reliable foreign partners.
• Introduction of new technologies in agriculture (fields irrigation, development of vegetable production, strengthening of breeding works in animal husbandry).
• Development of small and medium businesses in the sphere of processing and food industry; Support machine-building industry.
• Decrease emigration of young people from the Republic of Buryatia. Increase immigration to the Republic.
• Satisfaction with quality of life in the moment .
• Production of real products, GRP growth more than 8%.
• Increase in income per capita.• Self-sufficiency and financial independence
of the region from Federal center.
Model 3. Authors
30 – 50 years
16 – 30 years
Age
Researcher/Lecturer
Civil servant
Entrepreneur
Occupation
Model 4. Society and Environment: What Shall Be Left to Our Children?VALUES Social balance and equality
Environmental safety
Agriculture12% Food industry
6%
Transport and Logistics4%
Power industry4%
Construction and Hous-ing 4%
Finance2%
Information technology2%
Mining industry6%Education
8%Health4%
Social protection4%
Tourism4%
Culture12%
Environmental pro-tection
12%
Employment2%
Resource-saving technologies12%
Priority spheres/industries Indicators of success• Decrease of out-going migration.• High employment and high wages.• Decrease of unemployment in villages and
small cities, growth of entrepreneurship in tourism and agriculture industry, emergence of centers of gravity , successful cultural and social initiatives.
• Healthy and wealthy population• High quality of life and the human
development index• Stability• Balanced budget, unemployment reduction,
availability of education and health service• Increase level and quality of life• The interest of the population in the region
development, decrease violations against nature.
• Sustainable development
Model 4. Authors
30 – 50 year
16 – 30 year
Over 50 year
Age
Civil servant
Entrepreneur
Student
Researcher/ Lecturer
Other
Occupation
Model 5. School, Village, BuryatiaVALUES Social balance and equality
Agriculture20%
Food industry7%
Machine-building industry
3%Trade
3%
Infor-mation tech-
nology10%
Mining industry7%
Education13%
Health7%
Tourism13%
Culture3%
Environmen-tal protection
7%
Employment7%
Priority spheres/industries Indicators of success• Growth of economic
indicators. Public support.• Moral and physical health of
citizens. High employment. Favourable financial position of citizens
• Region specifics(traditions in the animal husbandry, recreational potential, culture of the peoples)
• Achievement of performance indicators
• Unity of the population.• Standards of living
Model 5. Authors
30 – 50 years
Age
Researcher/ Lec-turer
Other
Occupation
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