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Investigating the Undetected Early European Covid-19 Outbreak between December 2019 and February 2020 and the Failures of Public Policy to Manage the Epidemic
May 2020
By Prof Dr Peer EdererGlobal Food and Agribusiness Network
The author can be contacted on LinkedinAll documentation can also be accessed on the author’s homepage www.foodandagribusiness.org
Supplement IVCharts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2
All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the sourceNextstrain.org
1) The SARS-CoV-2 global phylogenetic dendrogram on 14 May 2020
2) The main Chinese clade
The city of Wuhan – where the firstcases were confirmed
3) A super-spreader event in Wuhan on 24 December: the Wuhan Lights Festival ?
Happy Valley ParkLight Show24 December30 known branches
Spanish descendant>
<Thai descendant
<Saudi Arabiandescendant
4) A super-spreader event in USA Washington State: Kirkland Life Care Center
WA-Snohomish County,35 year old who returnedfrom Wuhan on 15 January,tested positive on 20 January
Two British Columbia infections chains in Canada
Kirkland Life Care Center, super-spreadingend of Januaryto 29 known branches
5) Most European infections occur on the A2 clade which separated from the China outbreakalready in November 2019 and which is characterized by the D614G Mutation
403 direct descendantsfrom the China outbreak
1817 direct descendantsfrom the parallel outbreak in Europe which remainedundetected until end ofFebruary
A2 cladeforkedalready in November 2019
6) The European infections on the Europe subsample only
673 direct descendantsfrom the China outbreak
2982 direct descendantsfrom the paralleloutbreak in Europe whichremained undetected
7) The European A2 clade is characterized by the D614G mutation
Yellow: D614G mutationGreen: D614D mutation
8) The North American infections
1180 direct descendantsfrom the China outbreak
2693 direct descendantsfrom the undetectedEuropean outbreak
8) The North American infections in California versus New York
California sequenced mutations New York sequenced mutations
10) The outbreak in Spain
The Spanish outbreak isstrongly clustered on oneEuropean clade
Wuhan descendant cluster
11) The outbreak in France
The French outbreak isclustered inParis (lower arrow) and in the Alps (upper arrow)
12) The outbreaks in Belgium and Netherlands
Spanish outbreak stronglyclustered on oneEuropean branch
Wuhan Light Festival cluster
Belgium sequenced mutations Netherlands sequenced mutations
13) The outbreaks in Austria and Germany
Spanish outbreak stronglyclustered on oneEuropean branch
Wuhan Light Festival cluster
Austria sequenced mutations Germany sequenced mutations
14) The Bavarian Webasto cases on 28 January 2020
The Webasto cousin cladeinfected also cases in Finland,Belgium and Brazil
The Webasto 33- year old man, first case
The Chinese business woman at Webasto
15) The mutations of the Webasto case and sequences found in Graz in late March
16) The first confirmed Italian case in Codogno
The German Webasto case
The Italian Codogno case
The common ancestorto both cases at the
beginning of January
17) A large-scale super-spreading event: The ISPO Sports Business Trade Fair in Munich?
18) A large-scale super-spreading event: The Munich Fabric Start 2020 Trade Fair ?
19) The joint infection activity of Paris and New York: the New York Fashion Week ?
Two super-spreadingevents which infectedNew York and ParissimultaneouslyGreen dots = ParisRed dots = New York
20) Summary of proposed assignment of super-spreading events to the dendrogram
Men‘s and Women‘s Fashion Show New York 03-12 Feb
Munich Fabric Start 2020 Trade Fair 04-06 Feb
Munich ISPO Sports Business Trade Fair 26-29 Jan
Four Hills Tournament Innsbruck 03/04 Jan
Webasto case
Codogno case
Gangelt outbreak
Santa Claus in Innsbruck01-06 December 2019
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