Synthesis of Multiple Observations Using a Regional ... · Synthesis of multiple observations using...

Synthesis of multiple observations using a regional aerosol assimilation/forecast model (RAQMS)

and assessment of biomass burning emission estimates

1) SSAI, Hampton, VA2) NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA3) Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI4) National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA5) Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI6) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD7) US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC8) Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, Austin, TX9) NOAA/NESDIS

Chieko Kittaka1,2, Brad Pierce2,9, Todd Schaack3, Jay Al-Saadi2, Amber Soja4, Greg Tripoli5, Arlindo da Silva6, Jim Szykman7, Bryan Lambeth8, Dave Winker2

• Smoke influence on aerosol distribution over the western/central US in early Sept., 2006

• Sensitivity studies on wildfire emission estimate

• Evaluation of altitude of aerosol transport

CALIPSOCALIPSO

MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD): Vertically integrated aerosol loading

Satellite data used in Analysis:

Integrated Attenuated Backscatter (IAB): Vertically resolved aerosol loading

CALIPSOCALIPSO

Combination of MODIS AOD and CALIPSO Backscatter provides a three-dimensional view of aerosol loading.

CALIPSOCALIPSO

Assimilate AOD and constrain total AOD to the model

CALIPSOCALIPSO

Evaluate altitude of aerosol transport

Assimilate AOD and constrain total AOD to the model

Modeling system used in Analysis: Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS)

Description of RAQMS Aerosol Modules

Chemical Constituents

H2O2, O3, SO2, NH3, HNO3, OH, DMS, MSA

Gas Phase

SO3, SO4, NH4, NO3, BC, OC, Dust, SeaSalt

Aerosol Phase

H2O2, SO3, SO4, NH4, NO3

In Clouds (Liquid and Ice)

Gas Phase Reactions

Thermodynamic Equilibrium (MARS)

Dry deposition

Dry/Wet Depositions

Dry DepositionScavenging/Activation

(not implemented)

RAQMS Aerosol Mechanism:•Sulfate [Kittaka, 2004], •Dust, Sea Salt, Carbonaceous Aerosol from GOCART [provided by Mian Chin, GSFC]•Nitrate and Ammonium from GEOS-CHEM [provided by Rokjin Park, Harvard]

•CONUS domain (80kmx80kmx0.4km)

•RAQMS global analyses used for chemical constraints

•GMAO global aerosol analysis/forecast products used for lateral boundary conditions

•Convective transport due to fires is represented based on total carbon burned with the conversion factor of 8000 BTU/lb. The heat flux is partitioned into two components, sensible heat flux and radiative heatflux, and added to the soil layer of fire locations. Relative humidity is assumed to be 100 % where a fire location is.

12Z 00Z06Z

MODIS (Terra) overpass

MODIS AOD

SulfateNitrate

Black CarbonOrganic Carbon

RAQMS Regional

Single Assimilation Cycle

Modeled Masses

AOD incrementFirst Guess AOD

Adjusted Masses

• MODIS AOD assimilation constrains total AOD • RAQMS First Guess determines compositions and vertical distributions

RAQMSregional (80km) AOD Assimilation/Forecast Procedure

MODIS Rapid ResponseWild fire locations

GMAO global aerosolforecasts

RAQMS global chemicalforecasts

5-day RAQMS Regional Aerosol

Forecast

RAQMSregional MODIS AOD Assimilation cycle 09/07/06

AOD assimilation improved estimate of smoke from NW biomass burning and SE sulfate aerosol distributions

1st Guess Assimilated AODMODIS AOD

SulfateOrganic Carbon

Calculated by estimating the amount of fuel that is consumed in each ecosystem under three classes of fire weather severity (low, medium and high)

Global high-severity carbon consumption estimates

Biomass Burning Emission Estimates = (Area Burned) x (Available Fuel)

Estimated using the MODIS Thermal Anomaly data

Haines Index (moisture and stability of the local atmosphere)

Wild fire influences during2006 where higher than the previous 6 years by 110 -280%

National Interagency Fire Center (http://www.nifc.gov/fireinfo/nfn.html)Year-to-date Statistics:2006 (1/1/06 - 9/29/06) Fires: 83,752 Acres: 9,074,3582005 (1/1/05 - 9/29/05) Fires: 53,175 Acres: 8,160,688 2004 (1/1/04 - 9/29/04) Fires: 60,934 Acres: 7,737,472 2003 (1/1/03 - 9/29/03) Fires: 49,180 Acres: 3,167,289 2002 (1/1/02 - 9/29/02) Fires: 67,265 Acres: 6,578,985 2001 (1/1/01 - 9/29/01) Fires: 63,067 Acres: 3,221,391 2000 (1/1/00 - 9/29/00) Fires: 80,158 Acres: 6,862,561

Fire Statistics

Continental Aerosols observed from MODIS (Terra) during Sept. 2006

Biomass emission from wild fires

Persistent sulfate pollution

Dust from Sahara

Artifact due to high reflective surface

Pacific NW Wild fire event September 4-8MODIS AOD/COT (contours) and AIRNow PM2.5 (circles)

9/4 9/6

9/7 9/8

RAQMS Carbonaceous Aerosol Fraction

09/01 00Z

09/02 00Z

09/03 00Z

09/04 00Z

09/05 00Z

09/06 00Z

09/07 00Z

09/08 00Z

09/09 00Z

09/10 00Z

09/01 00Z

09/02 00Z

09/03 00Z

09/04 00Z

09/05 00Z

09/06 00Z

09/07 00Z

09/08 00Z

09/09 00Z

09/10 00Z

Sensitivity Studies: Wild fire emission estimates

Case B:based on combined MODIS fire counts

Terra +Aqua and day+night

Case A:based on MODIS fire counts with

duplicated counts removed, 48hr window, day/night fire counts

8/1 9/30 9/308/19/1 9/1

RAQMS Total Carbon Emission Estimates (Tg/day) for Aug – Sept, 2006

Pacific Northwest

South Central California

Overestimate of Carbonaceous due to overestimate of carbon emission from fires

Underestimate of Carbonaceous

Sensitivity Studies: Results – Surface Comparisons

Comparisons with ground-based measurement of carbonaceous aerorol at the Deer Park site, Houston, TX- Measurement data provided by TCEQ -

Black: measured, Red: RAQMS

Case A Case B Assimilation Increment = (Observation – 1st guess)

Large assimilation increment outside of the source region suggesting a problem with the aerosol transport path

Assimilation increment closer to zero over the source region in A than in B suggesting the emission estimate in A is better than that in B

Injection Height ???

Sensitivity Studies: Results Average AOD Assimilation Increment for Sept., 2006

Convective transport due to fires is represented based on total carbon burned with the conversion factor of 8000 BTU/lb. The heat flux is partitioned into two components, sensible heat flux and radiative heat flux, and added to the soil layer of fire locations. Relative humidity is assumed to be 100 % where a fire location is.

Convection

Convective transport due to fires

CALIPSO Orbit

Attenuated Backscatter Layer Integrated Attenuated Backscatter

CALIPSO orbits sampling near fire location (top two) and down stream (bottom)

Evaluation of altitude of aerosol layer with CALIPSO data

MODIS AODCALIPSO Integrated Attenuated Backscatter

RAQMS Total Aerosol Loading

MODIS AOD

CALIPSO Integrated Attenuated Backscatter

MODIS AOD

Conclusions

• The RAQMS analysis shows smoke from the Pacific Northwest fires dominates the aerosol distribution over the Western US in early September, 2006.

• The model run with the new carbon emission estimate shows an AOD assimilation increment close to zero over the smoke source region. This indicates the improvement of the emission estimate.

• The larger AOD assimilation increment outside the source regionsuggests a problem with the aerosol transport pathway.

• The comparison with CALIPSO data indicates an underestimate of the height of smoke plume. This may result from an underestimate of smoke injection height.

fn.c.kittaka@larc.nasa.gov for question/comment. Thanks!

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