Technological Singularity

Technological SingularityPreventing Post Humanity

By Alex Jarstad

Introduction to Technological Singularity

• Technological singularity is the point at which computers achieve artificial intelligence that surpasses the intelligence of humans.

• Scientists generally agree that this will occur before the year 2030.

• The term Singularity was first proposed in 1993 by Theorist Vernor Vinge.

Technological Singularity

“Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities,

an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’

and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever

make.” – I.J. Good, 1965

Historical Background• 3000 B.C. The Chinese invent a counting device known as the “abacus”. • 1623 A.D. Wilhelm Schickard develops the first automatic calculator. • 1679 A.D. Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz develops the modern binary system.• 1938 A.D. As a result of World War II starting, the United States Army begins

research towards the development of the ENIAC. • 1947 A.D. The transistor is invented at AT&T Bell labs. • 1965 A.D. Gordon Moore makes the discovery that the number of transistors

that can be placed on a circuit board and still be cost efficient will double every 24 months.

• 1988 A.D. Hans Moravec creates an early projection for when the intelligence explosion will occur.

Moore’s Law

• The number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit will increase exponentially approximately every two years in relationship to cost.

• Has held true to the test of time (Twist, 2005).

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Moore’s Law

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Moravec’s Projection

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What is intelligence?

• Human intelligence• Animal intelligence• Artificial intelligence

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The Human Brain

• According to Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works, “The mind is a system of organs of computation, designed by natural selection to solve the kinds of problems our ancestors faced in their foraging way of life, in particular, understanding and outmaneuvering objects, animals, plants, and other people (1997).”

Physical Components• Neurons – Specialized Brain cells required for functioning (Bear et al.,

2007). • Glia (Glial cells)

http://www.utexas.edu/courses/bio365r/Images/neuron.JPG

Functional Areas of the Brain

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Complexity of human thought

• Years of mental development prove to be adaptive (Wundt, 1897).

• Cortical Brain functioning allows for hypothesis testing (Bennett & Hacker, 2005).

Computer Intelligence

• Can computers think?

The Turing Test

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Implications of Turing Test

• An error in identifying the human exhibits the computer’s ability to think and trick the participant.

• “The only way to know that a man thinks is to be that particular man (Turing, 1950).”

• In the years that followed the work of Turing the primary question of AI turned from “Can computers think?” to “How well can computers think?” (Hayles, 1999).

Computer thinking vs. Human thinking

Computer Thinking• Serial Processing• Can analyze

preprogrammed problems

Human Thinking• Parallel Processing• Can analyze novel problems

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Completely Autonomous AI

• Understand Full Spectrum of Human Emotion• Experience Emotion• Be able to recognize images and language• Sense of self preservation

Recent Developments• Quantum Computers – Building The Matrix (Castelvecchi, 2008).• Parallel Processing Computers – Cray and Intel multiyear deal

(Thomas, 2008).• Self Aware Artificial intelligence – NaturalMotion Euphoria software

(NaturalMotion, 2008)• Socializing Robots – Robots develop unique personalities based on

interactions with humans (Ceurstemont, 2009). • Facial recognition software – Facial expression recognition

The Singularity is Near• Kurzweil (2005) on reverse engineering the brain – Because

human intelligence exists means it is possible to replicate it. • Forms of artificial intelligence already exists within search

engines, video games, and cell phones. • One of the biggest setbacks towards developing AI is that

computers right now cannot process language the way humans can. However, within the next five years computer programs should be able to model semantics, not just simply mimic syntax.

• By the year 2029 computers will be completely indistinguishable from human intelligence (Ramaswami, 2009).

Vernor Vinge’s (2008) Scenarios for AI

• The AI Scenario: superhuman AI in computers.• The IA Scenario: humans can be essentially upgraded by

computers (Intelligence Amplification).• The Biomedical Scenario: We alter the biological structures

of our brains thus improving human intelligence• The Internet Scenario: All information becomes directly

connected creating a super intelligent entity.• The Digital Gaia Scenario: Networks of microprocessors

become so efficient that they are said to hold superhuman intelligence.

Predicting Outcomes

• Virtual reality worlds (Kurzweil, 2005)• Cures for everything and every possible

discovery made within years of intelligence explosion (Good, 1965).

• If something can go wrong, it will (Vinge, 1993).

• Post biological beings (Dick, 2008).

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http://img2.timeinc.net/ew/dynamic/imgs/070821/jetsons_l.jpg http://www.yugatech.com/ringtones/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/

transformers-movie.jpg

Which Future Will It Be?

Regulation for AI must start now

• The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence Mission Statement – “In the coming decades, humanity will likely create a powerful artificial intelligence. SIAI exists to handle this urgent challenge, both the opportunity and the risk (singinst.org).”

• “Will the movie we live in be The Jetsons or Terminator 2? (Stix, 2000)”.

YouTube – The Singularity

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References• Bear, M.F., Connors, B.W., & Paradiso, M.A. (2007). Neuroscience: Exploring the Brain. Baltimore: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.• Bennett, M.R. and Hacker, P.M.S. (2005). Emotion and cortical-subcortical function: conceptual developments. Progress in Neurobiology, 75, 29-52.• Castelvecchi, D. (August 30, 2008). Building ‘The Matrix’. Retrieved February 2, 2009 from

http://sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/34497/title/Building_The_Matrix .• Ceurstemont, S. (2009). Sociable robots learn to get along with humans. Retrieved February 23, 2009 from http://

www.newscientist.com/article/dn16644-video-sociable-robots-learn-to- get-along-with-humans.html?DCMP=OTC- rss&nsref=online-news • Dick, S. (August 19, 2008). Could Robot Aliens Exist? Retrieved February 2, 2009 from http://www.popsci.com/popsci-staff/article/2008-08/could-robot-

aliens-exist• Good, I. J. (1965). Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine. Advances in

Computers (Academic Press), 6, 31-88.• Hayles, N.K. (1999). How We Became Posthuman: Virtual Bodies in Cybernetics, Literature, and Informatics. Chicago: The University of Chicago

Press.• Kurzweil, R. (2005) The Singularity is Near. Available February 3, 2008 from http://books.google.com/

books?hl=en&id=88U6hdUi6D0C&dq=technological+singularity&printsec=frontcover&source=web&ots=v_fYmFuxKI&sig=9XhPpim2dKgwip13jZPGtl4VQN0&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=3&ct=result#PPA39,M1

• Moravec, H. (1988). Mind Children. Boston: Harvard University Press.• NaturalMotion Ltd. (2008). FAQ. Retrieved February 23, 2009 from http://www.naturalmotion.com/faq.htm• Pinker, S. (1997). How the Mind Works. Retrieved February 3, 2009 from http://human-nature.com/books/mind.html .• Ramaswami, R. (2009). Artificial Intelligence: Is the Future Now For A.I.? Retrieved February 23, 2009 from http://

www.thejournal.com/articles/23927_5• Stix, G. (2000). Artificial Intelligentsia. Retrieved February 3, 2009 from http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=artificial-intelligentsia .• Thomas, A. (2008). Cray goes with Intel for HPC. Retrieved February 16, 2009 from http

://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/530/1026530/cray-goes-intel-hpc .• Turing, A.M. (1950). Computer Machinery and Intelligence. Mind, 59, 433-460.• Twist, J. (2005). Law that has driven digital life. Retrieved February 16, 2009 from

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4449711.stm• Vinge, V. (2008). Signs of the Singularity . Retrieved March 1, 2009 from http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6306• Vinge, V. (1993). The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human

Era. Retrieved February 2, 2009 from http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/ misc/singularity.html.