THE BERKELEY BIOECONOMY CONFERENCE

THE BERKELEY BIOECONOMY CONFERENCE

Policy, Consolidation and Investment Trends in Brazilian Biofuels

REESE EWING, SENIOR COMMODITIES CORRESPONDENT AT THOMSON REUTERSMarch 26-28, 2013

BRAZIL CANE-ETHANOL INDUSTRY: Fragile and on the mend but not in decline

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The Wisdom of Baseball:“The future ain't what it used to be.”

FORCES AT WORK IN BIOENERGY IN BRAZIL

• Biofuels policy - uncertainty

• Technology of supply and demand

• Bubble, bust and consolidation

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Brazil 1975 Pro-Alcool and 1st oil crisis

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Pro-Alcool is born from dear oil

• Military dictatorship launches Pro-Alcool 1975, after Yom Kippur War – 1st oil crisis

• At the time Brazil imported 90 pct of its oil

• 1st phase - blend anhydrous ethanol into all gasoline at 10-22pct, now at 18-25pc

• Subsidies, price controls

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Pro-Alcool after 2nd oil crisis

• Fiat launches first alcool car 1979, issuing in a decade of growth in hydrous ethanol

• Ethanol supplies collapse in face of cheap gasoline, bad weather, firm sugar prices in late 1980s

• Alcool car sales never recovered

• Government lifts price controls, subsidies

• Industry modernized, became more efficient

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Enter flex-fuel technology, renewed demand for ethanol

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Flex-fuel car reshapes gasoline market

• In 2003, Volkswagen launches its flex-fuel Gol

• By the following year, Fiat, Ford, GM and others followed with their own models

• By 2009, flex-fuel car sales made up more than 90 pct of all light vehicle sales

• Ethanol market share rivals gasoline for a few months

• Demand quickly outstrips supply for ethanol despite massive investments in mills

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Flex-fuel sales now dominate the market

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$15 bln + a year in investments was flowing into Brazilian cane 2008

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INVESTMENTS IN ETHANOL CAPACITY: MINSKY MOMENT

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Credit crunch after 2008 financial crisis sets industry leverage ablaze

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Gross debt to net revenue (%) in CS – Unica

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BUBBLE IN CANE ETHANOL BURSTS

• Mills had heavily leveraged their expansion plans leading up to peak of oil prices in July 2008

• When credit crisis popped the asset bubble, left players such as Brenco (now ETH) and Santelisa Vale (now Louis Dreyfus’ Biosev) looking for buyers or bankrupt

• At the peak of the boom, mills were selling for $135/tonne of crushing capacity: Per tonne crushing prices may have fallen by 30-50 pct

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WAVE OF CONSOLIDATION

• 2008 – BP buys control of Tropical BioEnergia

• 2009 - LDC plucked Santelisa Vale; Bunge snagged Moema; Petrobras buys half Guarani

• 2010 – France’s Tereos/Brazil’s Petrobras through local sugar group Guarani buys Mandu; India’s Shree Renuka buys Equipav; Noble nabbed two mills; Glencore buys Rio Vermelho; ADM consolidates hold of Limeira do Oeste; Cosan merges with Shell to create Raizen and buys Zanin

• 2011 – Cargill starts joint venture with Sao Joao

• 2012 – Olam buy mills in MG; Adecoagro starts greenfield project 15

CS mills are in tail of consolidation

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Investments in replanting drops as mills’ cash flow unable to keep up with debt

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Pct of CS cane crop renewal to total area

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Raise the age of cane and yields

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CS cane output in mln hectares

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As industry converts to mechanization from manual cut and burning

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Mechanization in Sao Paulo

• After decades of burning cane for manual harvest Brazil’s leading cane state SP commits to mechanize

• In 2013/14, 87 pct of cane area in state will be mechanized, up from 81 pct last year

• State will be fully mechanized by 2014/15

• This has social, environmental, production and balance sheet implications

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Challenges of mechanization

Pest management

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Cane borer

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Investments in replanting are improves yields

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THE CAPACITY GAP

• In 2010/11, after the first decline in a decade, mills faced idle crushing capacity of 120 million tonnes

• Of the 320-odd mills, more than 40 have closed since 2008 – 60 mills will be sold or closed in the next few years, according to Unica

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Labor costs have soared with minimum wage

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Jobless rates have plummeted

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Idle capacity is quickly evaporating, which will lower mills’ operating costs

CS output looks set to rise sharply this year to 580-600 mln T from 535 mln T last season

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Cane crushing capacity vs crop – Datagro

Region Capacity built by 2012

Capacity closed 2008-12

Crush 2012-13

Current crush capacity

Cane crop forecast

Center-south

624 mln tns

25.2 mln tns

535 mln tns

599 mln tns

590-600 mln tns

North-east

72 mln tns

6.8 mln tns

58 mln tns

65 mln tns

57 mln tns

Brazil 696 mln tns

32 mln tns

593 mln tns

664 mln tns

647-657 mln tns

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CS ethanol (bln ltr) and sugar (mln tns) output

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M&A: MANY OF SAME PLAYERS, SOME LATE COMERS

• Big commodities traders will move up the value chain in sugar and ethanol, oil companies will strengthen their position in biofuels

• Greenfield projects are in large part off the table as the industry tries to reduce costs through 2G breakthroughs

• Consolidation will be less frequent, smaller – the low hanging fruit has been plucked

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Weak sugar prices make 2013 difficult for mills

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Weekly QSBc1 6/27/2010 - 5/12/2013 (NYC)

BarOHLC, QSBc1, Last Trade3/17/2013, 18.75, 18.96, 18.48, 18.86

Price

USc

Lbs

.12

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

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J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M

Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13

SUGAR SOURCE OF PROFIT FOR MILLS

• China surprised markets over the past year to become Brazil’s leading buyer of sugar

• India has potential as sugar importer with weak yields and growing non-beef-eating middle class

• Demand for sugar is steady: 2-3 pct/yr

• Even at 19.5 cents/lb, sugar offers margins

• Sugar production is at near full capacity

• Brazil will continue as low cost producer

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SUGAR AND ANHYDROUS INVESTMENTS

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Brazilian exports attracted by US RFS and high RINs

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BRAZILIAN ETHANOL EXPORTS DRIVEN BY U.S. MANDATE – mln of ltrs

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2011/2012

2012/13

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INVESTMENT IN DEHYDRATION COLUMNS

• Mills are getting premiums for anhydrous ethanol

• Gasoline consumption, car sales growing and anhydrous blend to rise to 25 pct in May

• Anhydrous export market grew over 40 pct to 3 bln ltr in 2012, 2013 looks good to add additional bln tn

• Brazilian ethanol is competitive in U.S. with RINs at 35-40 cnts/gl and RINs are back up to 80 cnts

• Mills are betting on 2G ethanol both to bring down operating costs but also to win huge premiums on the U.S. market

SHIFT TO ANHYDROUS – in bln ltr

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Gov’t policies on gasoline prices hold back ethanol investments

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Policy disincentives for ethanol investment

• Gasoline prices below international prices

• No incentive for cogeneration of bagasse

• No clear criteria for the shift in anhydrous blend

• General government meddling in strategic industry

• Subsalt oil production and downsteam investment

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Subsalt Oil - 2007: Brazil’s lottery ticket Discoveries will impact biofuels

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POSSIBLE GAME CHANGER: Revolution in Oil Production from Hydraulic Fracking

• Collective assumption and geological intuition led to believe that oil is running out

• But this is turning out to be wrong due to technological advancements such as horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracking

• We are entering a new age of abundant oil

• White paper - Oil: The Next Revolution by Leonardo Maugeri at the Geopolitics of Energy Project at Harvard Kennedy School, June

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Logistics, logistics, logistics

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Area expansion Sao Paulo – 60 pct of outputSource: Unica

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Area expansion Mato Grosso do Sul Source: Unica

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Area expansion Goias Source: Unica

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Area expansion Minas Gerais Source: Unica

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Biomass cogeneration: 25pct of a mills revenue

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Reese EwingSenior Commodities CorrespondentSao Paulo, BrazilThomson Reutersreese.ewing@thomsonreuters.com(+5511) 5644-7721 (+5511) 98160-4173