The Co-Evolution of Technologies and Markets...zUnderstand how customer needs will evolve zDevelop...

Technology StrategyTechnology Strategy

Professor Rebecca Henderson

MIT Sloan School of Management

Effective strategies address Effective strategies address three key problems:three key problems:

How will we Create value?

How will weCapture value?

How will weDeliver value?

And answer seven critical questions:And answer seven critical questions:How will we create value?How will we create value?–– How will the technology evolve?How will the technology evolve?–– How will the market change? How will the market change?

How will we capture value?How will we capture value?–– How should we design the business model? How should we design the business model? –– Where should we compete in the value chain? Where should we compete in the value chain? –– How should we compete if standards are important? How should we compete if standards are important?

How will we deliver value?How will we deliver value?–– How do we manage the core business and real growth How do we manage the core business and real growth

simultaneously?simultaneously?–– How do we use our strategy to drive real resource allocation?How do we use our strategy to drive real resource allocation?

I assumed that you knew:I assumed that you knew:How will we create value?How will we create value?–– How will the technology evolve?How will the technology evolve?–– How will the market change? How will the market change?

Thus the course focused on:Thus the course focused on:How will we create value?How will we create value?–– How will the technology evolve?How will the technology evolve?–– How will the market change? How will the market change?

Why have a strategy?Why have a strategy?

1. 1. To make choicesTo make choices

Why have a strategy?Why have a strategy?

2. 2. To be able to change itTo be able to change it

The strategic challengeThe strategic challengeevolves down the S curveevolves down the S curve

Performance

Ferment

Takeoff

Maturity

Discontinuity

The nature of technical work changesThe nature of technical work changes

Performance

Will it work? Exploration, fun, creativity key

Can we make100,000?And service them?

We need to be responsive & flexiblebut controlled

Will it work? Exploration, fun, creativity key

The marketing challenge evolvesThe marketing challenge evolves

Performance

Who needs this?

Do we haveany referencecustomers?

Stay close to yourcustomer – really close

Who needs this?

The ways in which a firm captures value also The ways in which a firm captures value also evolve dramaticallyevolve dramatically

Performance

Speed, IPDifferentiation,Frontier performance key

We can sell it, make it, service it, ship itMost of the time

We may not be leading edgebut you’d rather buyfrom us because…

Speed, IPDifferentiation,Frontier performance key

The organizational challenge changesThe organizational challenge changessignificantlysignificantly

Performance

“EntrepreneurialEnergy” critical

“Coordination & control” critical

“EntrepreneurialEnergy” critical

Successful firms thus need Successful firms thus need severalseveral strategiesstrategies

Performance

“Ferment” Strategy

“Growth” Strategy

“Mature” Strategy

“Takeoff” Strategy

How shall we create value?How shall we create value?

Creating Value:Creating Value:

Understand how technologies will evolveUnderstand how technologies will evolve–– (Both your own and those on which you rely)(Both your own and those on which you rely)

Understand how customer needs will evolveUnderstand how customer needs will evolve

Develop world class products and services that meet Develop world class products and services that meet customer needscustomer needs

Tools for value creationTools for value creation

Predicting Technological ChangePredicting Technological Change–– The Delphi ModelThe Delphi Model–– Trend extrapolationTrend extrapolation

Predicting the Evolution of Customer NeedsPredicting the Evolution of Customer Needs–– Basic segmentationBasic segmentation–– Crossing the chasmCrossing the chasm–– New technologies, new needsNew technologies, new needs

Delphi ModelsDelphi Models

Ask the experts!Ask the experts!–– A committee?A committee?–– Structured questionnaires?Structured questionnaires?

ProsPros–– Field experts are often years ahead of day to day Field experts are often years ahead of day to day

practice: technologies do not “come from no where”practice: technologies do not “come from no where”

ConsCons–– They sometimes have little knowledge of possible They sometimes have little knowledge of possible

applicationsapplications–– They can be enthusiasticThey can be enthusiastic

Trend extrapolation: SemiconductorsTrend extrapolation: Semiconductors

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Frequency (M Hz)# transistors(m)

Issues in Trend ExtrapolationIssues in Trend Extrapolation

Which parameter shall I predict? Which parameter shall I predict? Do all good things come to an end?Do all good things come to an end?Exploring the difference between progress as a result Exploring the difference between progress as a result of the passage of time, and progress as the result of of the passage of time, and progress as the result of returns to effortreturns to effortPredicting progress in complementary technologiesPredicting progress in complementary technologies

Do all good things come to an end?Do all good things come to an end?Technological exhaustionTechnological exhaustion

Physical limit?

Performance

Performance is ultimately constrainedby physical limits

E.g.:Sailing ships & the power of the windCopper wire & transmission capabilitySemiconductors & the speed of the electron

Modeling the returns to Modeling the returns to efforteffort vs. vs. timetime

Performance

Effort

Performance may be a non linearfunction of effort expended: in mature industries more and more effort may lead to less and less progress, while progress in emerging industries may be “surprisingly” fast

The Evolution of MarketsThe Evolution of Markets

Predicting the pattern of Predicting the pattern of customer needscustomer needs

Market Evolution over the Life CycleMarket Evolution over the Life Cycle

Market segmentationMarket segmentationCrossing the chasmCrossing the chasmNew markets, new needs: New markets, new needs: –– The Innovator’s DilemmaThe Innovator’s Dilemma

The Key Question:The Key Question:Who buys a technology as it evolves?Who buys a technology as it evolves?

Performance

Understanding market dynamics:Understanding market dynamics:Basic segmentation (Rogers)Basic segmentation (Rogers)

UnitsBought

Innovators

EarlyAdopters

EarlyMajority

LateMajority

Laggards

Adopters differ by, for example, social, economic status --particularly resources, affinity for risk,knowledge, complementary assets, interest in the product

Understanding market dynamics:Understanding market dynamics:Crossing the chasm: (Moore)Crossing the chasm: (Moore)

Innovators

EarlyAdopters

EarlyMajority

LateMajority

Laggards

Making the transition from “early adopters” to “early majority” users oftenrequires the development of quite different competencies: e.g. service, support capabilities, much more extensive training.

Crossing the chasm?

UnitsBought

Managing customers at momentsManaging customers at momentsof discontinuityof discontinuity

Performance

Who buys a technologywhen it is firstintroduced?

New technologies sell to:- New customers- With new needs- Often at lower margins

Initially, PDAs did not seem to be a Initially, PDAs did not seem to be a threat to PCs:threat to PCs:

Speed,Power,Memory

PDAs sold to customers with different PDAs sold to customers with different needs:needs:

Speed,Power,Memory

Weight/cost

But as PDAs improve they may come to But as PDAs improve they may come to challenge PCschallenge PCs

?Speed,Power,Memory

Weight/cost

Or consumer preferences may changeOr consumer preferences may change

Speed,Power,Memory

Weight/cost

““Disruptive” technologies may threaten Disruptive” technologies may threaten established firmsestablished firms

Performance

Established technology

Mainstream customer needs

Niche customer needs

Invasive Technology

Clay Christensen: The Innovator’s Dilemma

Managing the change in customer Managing the change in customer groups may be the hardest task!groups may be the hardest task!

Performance

Effort

Leading edge customerfocused research may be a critical capability

The marketing strategy issue at a major The marketing strategy issue at a major materials supplier: materials supplier:

The Market

?$100m

Biomaterialswork

CR&DCR&D

What can be done?What can be done?

““Ready, aim, fire”Ready, aim, fire”Small scale experimentsSmall scale experimentsVirtual productsVirtual productsLead user research

} Significantresources required!

Lead user research

How shall we capture How shall we capture value?value?

Uniqueness, Complementary Assets & Uniqueness, Complementary Assets & the Structure of the Value Chainthe Structure of the Value Chain

Or: Or: What determines the Inventor’s Share?What determines the Inventor’s Share?

Customers

Inventor

Suppliers

Imitators,followers

Is it the case that Is it the case that great ideas = pots of money?great ideas = pots of money?

Coca ColaCoca ColaWal MartWal Mart

DellDell ViagraViagraNylonNylon

Xerox (early)Xerox (early)Valuecaptured

Xerox (late)Xerox (late)AppleAppleRC ColaRC Cola

Value created(through “raw” invention)

Two key ideas:Two key ideas:

UniquenessUniqueness–– Do great ideas make great riches?Do great ideas make great riches?

•• Controlling the knowledge generated by an innovationControlling the knowledge generated by an innovation

Complementary assetsComplementary assets–– Can we make money without being unique?Can we make money without being unique?

•• Controlling the assets that maximize the profits from Controlling the assets that maximize the profits from innovatinginnovating

Complementary assets are:Available Tightly

Easy to maintain

Uniqueness is:

Hard tomaintain

Uniqueness & Complementary Assets Uniqueness & Complementary Assets over the Life Cycle:over the Life Cycle:

Figure by MIT OCW.

Managing discontinuities means Managing discontinuities means managing complementary assets:managing complementary assets:

Performance

Ferment

Takeoff

Maturity

DiscontinuityWhich of my complementary assets are useful?

Using the model to dive deeper:Using the model to dive deeper:

Taking advantage of positive feedback to build strong Taking advantage of positive feedback to build strong complementary assets:complementary assets:–– In marketing & R&D (Calloway)In marketing & R&D (Calloway)–– In process technology (Goodyear)In process technology (Goodyear)–– In network externalities (Qualcomm, Nokia)In network externalities (Qualcomm, Nokia)

Building an understanding of which assets may be Building an understanding of which assets may be available:available:–– Are there spillovers?Are there spillovers?–– What is the shape of the learning curve?What is the shape of the learning curve?–– What is the structure of demand?What is the structure of demand?–– Do network externalities create value?Do network externalities create value?

Managing discontinuities means Managing discontinuities means managing complementary assets:managing complementary assets:

Performance

Ferment

Takeoff

Maturity

DiscontinuityWhich of my complementary assets are useful?

Power in the Value ChainPower in the Value Chain

Porter’s “5 (actually at least 7) Forces”: Porter’s “5 (actually at least 7) Forces”: Thinking about the balance of powerThinking about the balance of power

EntrantsEntrants

SubstitutesSubstitutes

SuppliersSuppliers BuyersBuyersRivalsRivals

Political, regulatory and institutional context

“Complementors”

C.Assets/Uniqueness speak to Rivalry C.Assets/Uniqueness speak to Rivalry and the Threat of Entry.and the Threat of Entry.

EntrantsEntrants

Porter reminds us to think about the Porter reminds us to think about the structure of the value chain:structure of the value chain:

EntrantsEntrants

Powerful suppliers and buyers may Powerful suppliers and buyers may constrain profitabilityconstrain profitability

SuppliersSuppliers BuyersBuyers

Does this mean that if the Does this mean that if the money is down (up) stream money is down (up) stream

we should forwards we should forwards (backwards) integrate?(backwards) integrate?

If the money is in lobster If the money is in lobster restaurants, restaurants,

should the lobster fisherman go should the lobster fisherman go into the restaurant business?into the restaurant business?

Key Questions:Key Questions:

When should an entrepreneurial firm develop it’s own:When should an entrepreneurial firm develop it’s own:–– Manufacturing Manufacturing –– DistributionDistribution–– SalesSales–– ….. capabilities?….. capabilities?

When should a mature firm outsource it’s:When should a mature firm outsource it’s:–– Manufacturing Manufacturing –– DistributionDistribution–– SalesSales–– ….. capabilities?….. capabilities?

Comparing “make” vs. “buy”Comparing “make” vs. “buy”

Startup

Supplier

Startup

Supplier

Key Considerations:Key Considerations:

How easy is it to write contracts?How easy is it to write contracts?–– How tight is the IP regime?How tight is the IP regime?–– How much uncertainty is there?How much uncertainty is there?–– “Specificity” of the asset “Specificity” of the asset –– how “thick” is the market?how “thick” is the market?

What will happen to “entrepreneurial energy”?What will happen to “entrepreneurial energy”?

What will be the key complementary assets going What will be the key complementary assets going forward?forward?

Make vs. Buy over the life cycleMake vs. Buy over the life cycle

Performance

Mostly Buy?

Mostly Make? ????

So “make” (i.e. do it inSo “make” (i.e. do it in--house) if:house) if:

There are significant IP worriesThere are significant IP worriesThere are likely to be contractual problemsThere are likely to be contractual problems–– We can’t be sure of getting the “fair” priceWe can’t be sure of getting the “fair” price–– We can’t be sure they’ll do the work “right”We can’t be sure they’ll do the work “right”–– I.e., when market are “thin” or there is limited I.e., when market are “thin” or there is limited

informationinformationWe have unique competencies that are relevant We have unique competencies that are relevant –– Or could create themOr could create them

And if buying won’t destroy everyone’s incentives to And if buying won’t destroy everyone’s incentives to be creative and energeticbe creative and energetic

But remember…But remember…

One cannot “buy” profit One cannot “buy” profit –– if everyone knows it is there if everyone knows it is there –– it will be in the priceit will be in the priceBesides, shouldn’t we “stick to our knitting”?Besides, shouldn’t we “stick to our knitting”?Wouldn’t you rather deal with an independent firm, Wouldn’t you rather deal with an independent firm, whom you could fire, than an internal subsidiary?whom you could fire, than an internal subsidiary?

Make vs. BuyMake vs. Buy

EntrepreneurialDrive,Freedom from the “old ways” Buy?

Control & Coordination

Standards and Strategy:Standards and Strategy:Competing in Increasingly Competing in Increasingly

Open WorldsOpen Worlds

Thinking about the dynamics of the Thinking about the dynamics of the strategic spacestrategic space

Control is:

Public

Private

Access is:Open Closed

Details of standard aremade available to all:but owner has control over how the standard evolves and may charge for use

E.g. Nintendo, Palm OS

Details of standards are available to all: nosingle firm has control over how they evolve: no charge for their use

E.g. TCP/IP, HTML

Standards are owned and controlled by thepublic sector but are not freely available

E.g. Cryptography

Technology may be standard, but detailsare not made availablebeyond the firm

E.g. Landmark Graphics, IBM 360

In practice these boundaries are fuzzy:In practice these boundaries are fuzzy:

IBM360

Control is:

MorePublic

MorePrivate

Access is:MoreOpen

MoreClosed

Symbian

CDMAWindows

Mercury/Corba

What do producers prefer?What do producers prefer?Access is:

MoreOpen

MoreClosed

MorePublic

Control is:

MorePrivate

What do customers prefer?What do customers prefer?Access is:

MoreOpen

MoreClosed

MorePublic

Control is:

MorePrivate

If network effects are important, If network effects are important, markets may “tip”markets may “tip”

Probabilitythe next consumer chooses to buy A

A’s share of installed base

Tipping dynamics differ with the Tipping dynamics differ with the strength of network effectsstrength of network effects

Value toconsumer

Actual (or anticipated) size of the installed base

Products withextensive N.effects

Conventional product

Products with“threshold”

network effects

Markets with moderate network effects only Markets with moderate network effects only tip once critical thresholds are reachedtip once critical thresholds are reached

Probabilitythe next consumer chooses to buy fromFirm A

0Firm A’s actual or anticipated share of installed base

Will this market tip?Will this market tip?

Network Operation

Applications

Operating Systems

Device Design

Chipset Design

VodafoneNTT DoCoMo

Motorola Siemens

Qualcomm

Device Manufacture

Chipset Manufacture

Service Provision

MotorolaI-250 and beyond Infineon

OrangeT-Mobile

MicrosoftLinux

VodafoneLive!

W-CDMA

SavaJeWindows

Windows

Microsoft

SonyEricsson

Clones and Asians

EMS Players

Samsung

MicrosoftUIQ

Symbian

Series60-90

Symbian SymbianSymbian

Market Share

Making money in Making money in an open worldan open world

Where’s the money?Where’s the money?Competition in a closed, private worldCompetition in a closed, private world

Where’s the money?Where’s the money?Competition in an open private worldCompetition in an open private world

Where’s the money?Where’s the money?The challenge of an open public worldThe challenge of an open public world

Making money in an open public worldMaking money in an open public world

Competing on a level playing field:Competing on a level playing field:–– Do it better, faster, cheaper, in a more integrated way…Do it better, faster, cheaper, in a more integrated way…–– Leverage “complementary assets”Leverage “complementary assets”

Be part of the evolution of the playing field:Be part of the evolution of the playing field:–– Exploring “soft” standardsExploring “soft” standards

Soft standards in action:Soft standards in action:

Publicstandard

“Soft” standard

Connecting to Other Connecting to Other Strategy FrameworksStrategy Frameworks

PIEPIE& &

The Delta ModelThe Delta Model

P.I.E.=Value CreatedP.I.E.=Value Created

PIE represents the upper bound on the actual earnings of an industry.

Industry Demand

Opportunity Cost of ResourcesPIE

Industry Quantity

Main drivers of P.I.E.Main drivers of P.I.E.

Absence of good Absence of good substitutessubstitutes pushes out demandpushes out demand

Presence of strong Presence of strong complements complements pushes out demandpushes out demand

Population/Income growth pushes out demand Population/Income growth pushes out demand

Changes in the longChanges in the long--term industry cost structureterm industry cost structure

Value Capture=The Four SlicesValue Capture=The Four Slices

Even if potential earnings are high, actual Even if potential earnings are high, actual earnings are limited by the extent that:earnings are limited by the extent that:A.A. Entry is easy.Entry is easy.B.B. Competition with existing rivals is intense.Competition with existing rivals is intense.C.C. Suppliers control needed inputs.Suppliers control needed inputs.D.D. Buyers act as one to bargain hard.Buyers act as one to bargain hard.

Essentially, all of these forces act to drive price Essentially, all of these forces act to drive price to marginal cost (or vice versa), eliminating to marginal cost (or vice versa), eliminating producer surplus.producer surplus.

Three Distinct Strategic OptionsThree Distinct Strategic OptionsSystem LockSystem Lock--InIn• System Economics• Market Dominance• Achieving Complementor

The Delta Model:The Delta Model:

Total Customer SolutionsTotal Customer Solutions• Customer Economics• Cooperation• Achieving Customer Share

Best ProductBest Product• Product Economics• Rivalry• Achieving Product Share

System Lock-In

Best Product

Proprietary StandardProprietary StandardMicrosoft, Intel

Low CostLow CostSouthwest Airlines,Nucor

Dominant ExchangeDominant ExchangeeBay, Yellow Pages

Horizontal BreadthHorizontal BreadthFidelity

Exclusive ChannelExclusive Channelrural Wal-Mart

Redefining theRedefining theCustomer RelationshipCustomer Relationship

Saturn

CustomerCustomerIntegrationIntegration

Total Customer Solutions

DifferentiationDifferentiationSony Wega

The Triangle:The Triangle:Options for Strategic PositioningOptions for Strategic Positioning

ManagingManagingOrganizational CompetenceOrganizational Competence

The last of the three key questions...The last of the three key questions...

How can we manage the How can we manage the core business and real core business and real

growth simultaneously?growth simultaneously?

In summary:In summary:““I see”, he said, “you’re suggesting that we invest I see”, he said, “you’re suggesting that we invest millions of dollars in a market that may or may not millions of dollars in a market that may or may not exist but that is certainly smaller than our existing exist but that is certainly smaller than our existing market, to develop a product that customers may or market, to develop a product that customers may or may not want, using a business model that will almost may not want, using a business model that will almost certainly give us lower margins than our existing certainly give us lower margins than our existing product lines. You’re warning us that we’ll run into product lines. You’re warning us that we’ll run into serious organizational problems as we make this serious organizational problems as we make this investment, and our current business is screaming for investment, and our current business is screaming for resources. Tell me again just why we should make this resources. Tell me again just why we should make this investment?”investment?”

- Divisional Manager, Telecommunications Equipment Provider

The Organizational Challenge:The Organizational Challenge:

Successful growth unites entrepreneurial insight with

effective coordination

StartupsStartups

B as UB as U

EntrepreneurialDrive,Freedom from the “old ways”

What can be done?What can be done?LeadLead::–– Build the “ambidextrous” senior team: Build the “ambidextrous” senior team:

communicate the strategy, allocate resourcescommunicate the strategy, allocate resourcesStructureStructure: : –– Explore transitional and intermediate formsExplore transitional and intermediate forms

IncentIncent::–– Explain “just what’s in this for me?”Explain “just what’s in this for me?”

BuildBuild: : –– Lay the foundations for a new culture, new Lay the foundations for a new culture, new

expectationsexpectations

Choose a structure that fits the firm’s Choose a structure that fits the firm’s strategic positioning and skillsstrategic positioning and skills

EntrepreneurialEnergy

Jointventure/alliance

Internalventure

Build insideexisting unit

Acquire/Partner

Manage it using every lever that you Manage it using every lever that you havehave

EntrepreneurialDrive,Freedom from the “old ways”

Acquire/Partner

Build inside existing units

Jointventure/alliance

Internalventure

Build insideexisting unit

Recognizeopportunity?

Invest inmarket?

Build newbusiness model?

Organizeambidextrously?

YESActually

fund project?NO

YESEmbracesuccess?

YESBuilding growth thus requires doing Building growth thus requires doing manymany things rightthings right

Recognizeopportunity?

Invest inmarket?

Build newbusiness model?

Organizeambidextrously?

YESActually

fund project?NO

YESEmbracesuccess?

Strategic Issues

Org.Issues

Actually Doing Technology Actually Doing Technology & Product Strategy& Product Strategy

The innovation funnelThe innovation funnel

Phase I Phase II Phase III Launch

A Range of ToolsA Range of Tools

Risk adjusted NPV Decision Trees Simulations e.g. Monte Carlo

Closed Formulas e.g. Black-Scholes

Differential Equations

Pros• Established

methodology widely accepted and understood

• Relatively easy and quick to implement

• A building block for more complicated valuation methods

• Incorporates decision making and uncertainty

• Determines optimal decisions

• Transparent and easy to understand.

• Building block for other more complicated valuation methods.

• Allows for complicated and multiple uncertainties spanning both discrete and continuous outcomes.

• Easier to model non-standard uncertainties

• Elegant, easy to implement with formula in hand

• A numerical solution incorporating optimal decisions and (possibly) both continuous and discrete uncertainties.

Cons• Does not allow for

contingent decisions

• Collapses many decisions and outcomes down to a single scenario

• Does not account for managerial ability to react to information.

• Trees can become complicated with many decisions and uncertainties.

• Essentially limited to discrete decisions and discrete characterization of uncertainties.

• Methods do not determine optimal policies.

• Programming becomes complicated with many decisions and uncertainties.

• Less transparent than trees

• Limited to relatively simple decisions and uncertainties.

• Many simplifying assumptions usually have to be made to obtain closed form solutions.

• Extremely difficult, if not impossible, to implement in realistic situations.

• Time Consuming• Does not allow for

many different uncertainties.

An ExampleAn ExampleLowResource

HighResource

ModerateResourceConsumer Value Perception

EnablingTechnology

New CoreProduct

NewBenefits

Radical

Incremental

NextGeneration

Derivative

Platform

Breakthrough

No ChangeImprovement Variant

Product Support

Successful Implementation: Successful Implementation: Common LessonsCommon Lessons

Senior management commitment & involvementSenior management commitment & involvement–– Senior steering committee Senior steering committee –– Empowered championEmpowered champion

Diagnostic phaseDiagnostic phase–– Aligned with the marketAligned with the market–– As well as with the existing culture and organization As well as with the existing culture and organization

A designed implementation planA designed implementation plan–– Up frontUp front–– With appropriate expectationsWith appropriate expectations

Allocating resources to match the design. Allocating resources to match the design.

SummarySummary

Effective strategies address Effective strategies address three key problems:three key problems:

And answer seven critical questions:And answer seven critical questions:How will we create value?How will we create value?–– How will the technology evolve?How will the technology evolve?–– How will the market change? How will the market change?

Understanding the life cycle is critical :Understanding the life cycle is critical :

Ferment

Takeoff

Maturity

TechnologyMarkets

CompetitionOrganization

Startup

Supplier

Technology strategy on one slide:Technology strategy on one slide:

Create

CaptureDeliver

NFigure by MIT OCW Text

Good Luck!Good Luck!

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