The connection between cosmic rays, clouds and climate€¦ · – Presentation of the hypothesis...

The connection between cosmic rays, clouds and climate

Henrik Svensmark, Jacob Svensmark*,DTU Space

*Dark Cosmology Centre, University of Copenhagen

The connection between cosmic rays, clouds and climate

1. The cosmoclimatological hypothesis– Origin of cosmic rays – Linking cosmic rays to climate– Presentation of the hypothesis

2. The final piece of the puzzle– The microphysical mechanism, theoretically

and experimentally– How relevant is cosmic rays for climate in the

real atmosphere?3. Conclusion

Cosmic Rays

Solar magnetic field

Super Nova Remnant Acceleration of cosmic rays

Solar system

20 km

0 km

Incoming proton of 100 GeV

ICE

Cosmic rays in the atmosphere

Ionizes the atmosphere

Produces new cosmogenic isotopes,e.g. 14C, 26Al, 10Be

+-+

Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Omanbetween 9 and 6 kyr ago

The formation of stalagmites in northern Oman has recorded past northwardshifts of the intertropical convergence zone3, whose northward migration stops near the southern shoreline of Arabia in thepresent climate

U. Neff et al., Nature 411, 290 - 293 (2001)

How can STARS influence Climate?

Net effect of clouds is to cool the Earth by about 30 W/m2

Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, JASTP 1997, Svensmark, PRL 1998, Marsh & Svensmark, PRL, 2000. (update 2005)

Link between Low Cloud Cover and Galactic Cosmic Rays?Solar cycle variationISCCP IR Low cloud data

Calibration?

10

0

-10

-20

If the link is between cosmic rays and clouds, what would the mechanism be?

Empirical evidence for a relation between cosmic rays and climate

Precurser to clouds: Aerosols

1-2 nm stable aerosols Cloud Condensation Nuclei > 50 nm

CLOUD

Cosmic Ray Ionization

Growth

Aerosols and microphysics of cloudsSatellite observations of ship tracks

Visible: 0.9 mm

Experimental challenges

1-2 nm stable aerosols

2004 - 2007

0 10 20 30 40 50 60q (cm-3 s-1)

H2SO4 concentration ~ 2*108 (cm-3)

O3 ~ 25 ppbSO2 ~ 300 pptRH ~ 35%

Svensmark et al. Proc. R. Soc. A (2007) 463, 385–396

+ +- - ?

So experimentally there is good evidence for the generation of ultrafine aerosols by ions ~ 1-3 nm

• An important remaining question: Will the small aerosols grow to Cloud

Condensation Nuclei (~ 50 nm) ?Nucleation

If not no impact on clouds.

CCN

RESULTS FROM GEO-CHEM-TOMAS Global Circulation Model

(No ion-effects on growth)

Solar cycle response

1 10 100 Diameter [nm]

0.01

0.10

1.00

10.00 R

elat

ive

chan

ge [%

]

CCNN

UCL

EATI

ON

Expected range to explain observations

Data from: Snow-Kropla et al. 2011

Aero

sols

Modeling says NOto an effect of ions on CCN

Is the theory dead again?

Addition of ”neutral” aerosols

Svensmark, Enghoff, Pepke PedersenPhysics Letters A 377 (2013) 2343–2347

CCN

More particles compeating for the same gas, therefore slowergrowth and larger losses, as also seen in model results.

TESTING THE GROWTH OF AEROSOLS EXPERIMENTALY

Addition of aerosols using ionization

Svensmark, Enghoff, Pepke PedersenPhysics Letters A 377 (2013) 2343–2347

CCN

Contradicts the model results

Coronal Mass EjectionsNatural experiments for testing the GCR-atmosphere link

Cosm

ic ra

ys [c

ount

s]

AERONET, SSM/I, MODIS and ISCCP data for 5 strongest Forbush decreases

Aerosols CloudsLiquid water Liquid cloud fraction Low Clouds

Svensmark, Bondo, Svensmark, Geo. Phys. Lett., 2009Svensmark, Enghoff, Shaviv, Svensmark, J. Geophys Res., 2016

Will cosmic rays help the growth

?

Experiments and observations suggest that aerosols grow to Cloud Condensation Nuclei

1-2 nm stable aerosols

CCN > 50 nm

CLOUD

GROWTH ?Mainly from H2SO4–H2O gas

�What mechanism

is responsible ?

The Breakthrough 2015-2017Cosmic Rays

IonsAerosol

+mion

-

+-

+

+

-

Ions Aerosols

+

-

mion Maerosol Maerosol+mion

Maerosol

A so far ignored effect

10% atm.1% exp.

~GRion/GR0 = G(n0, nion, m0, mion ,d) ~ 70 nionn0

Aerosol+

Ions

H2SO4-H2O ~ n0 ~ 106 molecules/cm3

Growth from neutral molecules

~ 103 ions/cm3

Growth from ions

Naively: GRion/GR0 ~ nion/ n0 ~ 10-3 ~ 0.1%

A few numbers

1. Coulomb forces2. Mirror forces3. Van der Waals forces4. Viscous forces

2×107 3×107 4×107 5×107 6×107

H2SO4 [molecules/cm3]

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

∆T

[min

]

0.0-

0.8- 0.9- 1.0- 1.2- 1.3-

1.6-

∆ (d

r/dt) io

n [%

]

v1

v2

v3

v4

v5v6

v7

v8

v9

v10

v11

0.5-

∆q = 45 ion-pairs cm-3s-1

∆q = 186 ion-pairs cm-3s-1

After 3100 Hours of measurements we get:

Theory and experiments are consistent !

D G

row

th ra

te [

%]

Svensmark, Enghoff, Shaviv & Svensmark, Nature Communications 2017 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02082-2

0 100 200 300 Time [Hours]

60

20

10

5

3

0 1 2 3 4 Time [Hours]

Dia

met

er

[nm

]D

iam

eter

[n

m]

5

10

15

20

0.0

1.0

2.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Profile 1

Profile 1

Profile 2

Profile 2b)

a)

Droplet formation Cloud

Cosmic ray ionization

Nucleation

Summery of influence of cosmic rays on clouds

Growth

Important: The cosmic ray effect on growth is independent on how small particles are made.

OCEAN

Atmospheric Relevance

Equator40 South 40 North

ITCZConvergent zone

HADLEY CIRCULATION

SunGCR GCR

SupernovaRemnant

Solar Wind Solar Wind

nH2So4~1-3.106 cm-3

Time of growth 5-7 days

Summary

1. Cosmic rays assist the nucleation of small aerosols (1-1.5 nm)

2. Growth of aerosols to CCN assisted by cosmic ray ionization (Microphysical mechanism identified)

3. Explain results on Forbush decreases which result in variations in aerosols and clouds

4. Consistent with climate changes over the Holocene (last 10.000 years) 1-2 oC

5. Consistent with climate change over geological time scales 5-10 oC, e.g. last 500 million years. Note that these variations are independent of solar varibility.

Climate and our galactic environment

Carbon 13 and super nova activity

Svensmark, Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc., 423, 1234-1253 (2012)

-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0Time [Myr]

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5SN

(t)/

SN(0

)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

δ13C

[p

er m

ill]

Conclusion• The ions produced of cosmic rays, help the formation clusters to form and become stable

against evaporation. This process is called nucleation and results in small clusters (aerosols).

• The second role of ions is that they accelerate the growth of small aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei – seeds on which liquid water droplets form to make clouds. The more ions the more aerosols become cloud condensation nuclei.

IMPLICATIONS• When the Sun is lazy, magnetically speaking, there are more cosmic rays and more low clouds,

and the world is cooler. When the Sun is active fewer cosmic rays reach the Earth and, with fewer low clouds, the world warms up.

• Cooling’s and warmings of around 2 oC have occurred repeatedly over the past 10,000 years, as the Sun’s activity and the cosmic ray influx have varied.

• Over many millions of years, much larger variations of up to 10oC occur as the Sun and Earth, travelling through the Galaxy, visit regions with more or fewer exploding stars.

Cosmic rays from MeteoritesTitanium 44 (Half-time 63 years)

Taricco et al. 2006

Stone meteorite

Eleanna Asvestari Ilya G. Usoskin Gennady A. Kovaltsov Mathew J. OwensNatalie A. Krivova Sara Rubinetti Carla TariccoMonthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 467, Issue 2, 2017, 1608–1613,

Sun

Sea Level Change Rate

Quantifying the Solar impact:

Shaviv 2008

Sea

Surfa

ce Te

mpe

ratu

re

Sea

Leve

l Cha

nge

Total Solar Irradiance

Altim

etry

Dat

a

Ocea

n He

at C

onte

nt

Require an amplificationmechanism

Quantifying Solar Forcingover 11 years

Shaviv, 2008

CLOUDS

Climate and our galactic environment pt. 2

36

Cosmic rays and climate over the last 10.000 yearsBond et al, Science 294, 2001

Last 1000 yearsLittle Ice Age

• Little Ice Age is merely the most recent of a dozen such events during the last 10.000 years

Adapted from Kirkby

According to icecoresCO2 levels has beenconstant ~280 ppm

[H2SO4] ~ 106 molecules/cm3

1 10 100

05

10

15

2025

4β

+-,

0/β

0,0 Ν

0/Ν

tot

a)

1 10 100d [nm]

1

10

100

1000

q

[ion-p

airs

/cm

3s]

1.0

2.0

5.0

5.0

10.0

10.0

20.0

20.0

30.0

30.0

50.0

1000

10000

nio

n

[ions/

cm3]

b)

G in theorychange in % of effective growth velocity

Important for the survivability of aerosols

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20d [nm]

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

ΔT

[min

]

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20d [nm]

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

ΔT

[min

]

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20d [nm]

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

ΔT

[min

]

mean= 1.23743

a) b) c)

Even the details in the theory fits the experiment