"The economic impact of international tourism: dynamic and trends" Professor Guillermo...

"The economic impact of international tourism: dynamic

and trends"

Professor Guillermo Mendez-GonzalezUniversidad Rey Juan Carlos I

Madrid

Definition of Tourism

"travel to and stay in places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes not related to the exercise of an activity remunerated from within the place visited".

Concepts

• Travel :Action of moving outside one´s community.

• lodging: stay in places outside one’s usual environment.

• Motivation: Purposes – NON profit

• Temporality: Time limited (one year)

Travel

• Use a medium of transport from home to destination– AIR

– CAR

– SEA

– TRAIN

• “Economic distance” = space + time + cost

lodging

• HOTEL

» Camping

• 2nd house

Motivation

• 1.-Leisure, recreation and vacations– “sun and sand”

• 2.- To visit relatives and friends

• 3.- Professional and businesses trips

• 4.- Health care trips

• 5.- Religion / pilgrimage

• 6.- Other reasons. (sports, art etc)

TOURISM´S FORMS WTO Confference in Ottawa)

INTERNODOMESTIC

RECEPTOR

INBO

UN

D EMIS

OR

OU

TBO

UN

IINTERNATIONAL

NA

TION

ALIN

TER

IOR

(Int

erna

l)

Tourism international

• Visitors from abroad

• Residents to abroad

in

out

Tourism National• National in your country

• National abroad

Economic

• Production

• Comsum

Tourism and Economic

• The utility which generate the tourism´s companies , framed in the tertiary sector, can be defined as the satisfaction of the desire of the consumers to practice tourist activities

• the product that creates the companies is not a material good but that usually consists of the benefit of services

Tourism activities

• 1, The lodgingg. • 2. The restoration. • 3. The recreation. • 4. The intermediation and information. • 5. The economic proceedings (currency exchange,

insurances, ..).• 6. The article sale. • 7. The transport.

Tourism consum

• CONSUM: the acquisition of tourist services directed to satisfy a necessity or utility for the tourist.

• WTO CLASIFICATION- World Tourisme Org.– 1, Combined trips, vacations and circuits. – 2. lodging. – 3, Food and beverages – 4. Transport.– 5, Leisure, sport and culture activities. – 6. Purchases. – 7. Others.

characteristics

• the tourist consumption has to be made in situ, there where exists some tourist attractive.

characteristics

• the consumption means the destruction of the service, leaving like only residual value the experience or memory

characteristics• the client can compose the global product by

itself, acquiring one by one those services that are of their preference

characteristics• a substitution of some by-products can be

produced: hotel by apartment, train by airplane, etc.

characteristics• The tourism is a consumable good of relative

luxury

NUMBER OF PAX VS EXPENSES

• INDICATORS• Arrivals• Average of stay

• 11 DAYS BUT DECREASING

• Dayly expenses• RANKING OF COUNTRIES

• Period of stay• SEASONABILITY

WORLD TURISM(figures)

Arrivals

Receipts and Expenses

Arrivals

• In 2007, international tourist arrivals grew by 6.6% to reach a new record figure of over 900 million

• Represented 56 million more arrivals than in 2006,

Mondial market 2000-684 mill / 2008-924 mill

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 395,8 113,3 155,4 24,2 28,2

2008 489 188 148 53 47

EuropaAsia

PacificoAmericas O.Medio Africa

2008 Internacional Arrivals Market share (%)

Europa; 53

Asia-Pac; 20

Americas; 16

Africa; 5 Oriente M; 6

Temporality

• Free time – Holidays

• Seasonal

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

E F M A MY JN JL A S O N D

20052007

SEASONAL

• DEFINITION: The concentration in time and space

• CAUSES: • INACTIVITY OF COMPANY• SCHOLAR VACATIONS –• POPULATION HABITS – • CLIMATE • REAFFIRMATION OF CLASS

• CLIMATIC DEPENDENCY

Purpose of visit %

Transport used

Ten top arrivals 2006-07

Region2007 market share

Europe 54.4% Northern Europe 6.5

Western Europe 17.7

Central/Eastern Europe 10.8

Southern/Mediterranean Europe 19.5

• Asia and the Pacific 19.8 – Northeast Asia 11.1%

• Americas 16.1 – North America 10.7

• Africa 4.8 • Middle East 4.9

• Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO)..

The last year

• After a 5% increase in the first half of 2008, tourist arrivals moved intonegative territory in the second half of 2008 (-1%).

• Thefinal result was an estimated 2% growth for the full year – down from 7% in 2007, which was the fourth year of consecutive strong growth in world tourism.

• And there are no signs that this downward trend will soon be reversed in 2009.

2020 forecast

Receipts

• International tourism receipts grew to US$ 856 billion (625 billion euros) in 2007,

• corresponding to an increase in real terms of 5.6% over 2006.

Internacional Tourism Income Share (%)

2007

Europa; 50,6

Asia-Pac; 22,1

Americas; 20

Africa; 3,3 Oriente M; 4

Receipts from international tourism

434

189 171

28 34

050

100150200250300350400450

Europa Asia yPac Americas Africa Midle East

billion $

World's Top Ten Tourism Earners, 2006-2007

Marketshare between Arrivals & Receipts

Europa; 53

Asia-Pac; 20

Americas; 16

Africa; 5 Oriente M; 6

Europa; 50,6

Asia-Pac; 22,1

Americas; 20

Africa; 3,3 Oriente M; 4

Receipts by arrival-$

890

1020

1200

640720

950

Europe Asia&Pacif Americas Africa Midle East World

Ten top expender

The EU Market

Market

EUROPE

• Europe is the world’s largest and most mature destination region.– over 54% of all international tourist arrivals- – and 51% of international tourism receipts-

• International tourist arrivals increased by 5%, representing 488.4 mill.arrivals.

• International tourism receipts grew at a slightly lower rate of 3% (in real terms) to US$ 433 billion (316 billion euros).

European PODIUM

TYPE OF EXPENSES

• 1. - Trips, vacations and circuits

• 2. – Lodging

• 3. - Meals and drinks

• 4. - Transport

• 5. - Leisure Sport Culture and Activities

• 6. - Purchases

• 7. - Other several

ECONOMIC EFFECTS (I)

• DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOURIST SECTOR• DEVELOPMENT COMPLEMENTARY SECTORS• MULTIPLYING REDISTRIBUTION OF RENTS• MODIFICATION STRUCTURES CONSUMPTION• INFLUENCES IN CONSUME’S PRICES • PRESSURE TO THE RISE PRICES OF REAL STATE

MARKET

International tourism arrivals & Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

• When world economic growth exceeds 4 per cent, the growth of tourism volume tends to be higher.

• When GDP growth falls below 2 per cent, tourism growth tends to be even lower.

• In and GDP at 3.5 per cent, i.e. tourism grew on average 1.3 times faster than GDP.

• Tthe period 1975-2000 tourism increased at an average rate of 4.6 per cent a year. 

Contribution of the tourism to the GDP

• Maldivas 84%• Jamaica 29%• R. Dominicana 20,5%

• España 12,1%• Suiza 7,7%• Francia 7,3%• Italia 5,9%• Estados Unidos 4,6%• Canada 4,1%• Noruega 3%

ECONOMIC EFFECTS (II)

• EFFECT ON IMP-EXP – OF GOODS and CAPITALS

• INVESTMENTS ON INFRASTRUCTURES AND TRANSPORTS

• EMPLOYEMENT– Direct and Indirect

– USE 11% of labour force• Little qualified and temporary jobs due the seasonability

Tourism and the world economy

•  International tourism receipts represented in 2003 approximately 6 per cent of worldwide exports of goods and services (as expressed in US$). When considering service exports exclusively, the share of tourism exports increases to nearly 30 per cent. 

ECONOMIC EFFECTS (III)

• BALANCE OF PAYMENTS– Contributes to diminish the commercial deficit

• GENERATION FISCAL RENTS – INDIRECT TAXES

• VAT and CUSTOMS

– DIRECT TAXES• REGIONAL and LOCAL

Economic & TourismSpain

2006 / 2007

Destination and lodgingshare 12,7% - 58,6 million tourist

ITALIA - 2007

• Italia is the 4th inbound market

• 3,6 mill. tourists,

• Growing 8,1%,

• Share 6,1%

Trends

Touristic’s expenses

Destination

Satellite Tourism Account• 2000 2001 2002(P) 2003(P) 2004(P) 2005(P) 2006(A)

• Turismo receptor

36.414,5 38.572,6 38.252,8 39.675,7 41.432,1 44.243,5 47.205,4

• Otros componentes

• 36.573,8 39.499,3 42.877,9 46.104,2 50.083,0 54.285,1 59.168,8

• Total mill,€ 72.988,3 78.071,9 81.130,7 85.779,9 91.515,1 98.528,6 106.374,2

• Precios corrientes: Porcentaje sobre el PIB

• Turismo receptor 5,8 5,7 5,2 5,1 4,9 4,9 4,8

• Otros 5,8 5,8 5,9 5,9 6,0 6,0 6,0

• Total 11,6 11,5 11,1 11,0 10,9 10,9 10,8

• PIB = GNP

12,7% total employ

% Tourism/GNP

10,4

10,6

10,8

11

11,2

11,4

11,6

11,8

2000 2001 2002(P) 2003(P) 2004(P) 2005(P) 2006(A)

% GNP

GDP Growing

-1

0

1

2

3

4

PIB Nacional PIB Turístico

PIB Nacional 3,5 2,7 2,9 3,1 3,3 3,8 3,6 2,8

PIB Turístico 1,6 -0,2 1,6 2,9 2,6 3,5 2,5 1,9

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

expenses income

income 36,4 38,5 40,7 42,1

expenses 9,8 12,1 13,2 14,3

2004 2005 2006 2007

Balance of Payment - Spain

Comments

• Untill 1989 the superavit of the Tourism Balance of Payment had covered the Comercial deficit

• The superavit remains at similar levels – The number of tourist increase every year.– The expenses per visitor decrease.

• The outbond turism is increasing

Discussion

• How will the EU’s Eastern expansion impact the Spanish offer of “Sun and sand” products?

• And the re-distribution of “cohesion funds”?

• Which is, currently, the main problem of the Spanish economy relative to the euro-zone?

• What are the three main strengths of the Spanish tourism sector?

• Describe some reasons why would come back to Spain.

THE EUROPEAN UNION

AND

EFFECTS ON THE TOURISM

Politics of Structural and cohesion Funds

• FUNDS FEDER: It has generated an improvement of the structures used by the tourist movements

• FUNDS LEADER: Specific funds for the adequacy of farms and rural housings into establishment of lodging

Freedom of persons, goods and capitals movements

• The Shengen’s agreement eliminates the use of passport, visas or administrative authorizations.

• The concentration and merger of Air companies and the investment of hotel European chains .

• Liberalization and privatization of public companies increasing the competivity .

Monetary Union. EURO

• The unique currency eliminates the effect of the relation of change and the competitiveness of the countries concentrates recipients in the levels of interior prices

Criteria of convergence and Agreement of Stability and Growth

• The fulfillment of this agreement places the axis of the competitiveness, in the tourist sector, to the relation price / quality of the given services, the excellence of the quality, as element that marks the difference.