The Federal R&D Budget: Context, Overview, Outlook Matt Hourihan January 28, 2015 for the AWIS...

The Federal R&D Budget: Context, Overview, OutlookMatt HourihanJanuary 28, 2015for the AWIS Leadership Series 2015

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program

Bud

get

Rel

ease

Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep

Phase 1: Planning within Agency w/ OMB and OSTP oversight

Phase 2: OMB Review

Phase 3: Congressional budget and appropriations

The Federal Budget Cycle

Phase 1: Internal agency discussions and planning Joint guidance from OMB / OSTP on S&T (midsummer) Agencies deliver budget justifications to OMB (early fall)

Bud

get

Rel

ease

Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep

Phase 1: Planning within Agency w/ OMB and OSTP oversight

Phase 2: OMB Review

Phase 3: Congressional budget and appropriations

The Federal Budget Cycle

Phase 2: OMB performs multi-stage review, responds to agencies

Budget proposals are finalized in January President presents the proposed budget to Congress early

February

Bud

get

Rel

ease

Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep

Phase 1: Planning within Agency w/ OMB and OSTP oversight

Phase 2: OMB Review

Phase 3: Congressional budget and appropriations

The Federal Budget Cycle

Phase 3: Congress gets involved Approves budget resolution: spending targets, reconciliation

302(b) allocations

Approps committees write/approve 12 appropriations bills 12 subcommittees: one for each bill

“President proposes, Congress disposes”

That’s How It’s Supposed to Work, Anyway…

FY10: Final omnibus in December (~3 months late) FY11: No Budget Res; full-year CR in April (six months

late) FY12: No Budget Res; minibus/megabus (2-3 months

late) FY13: FISCAL CLIFF; final approps in March (5 months

late) FY14: No Budget Res; budget 2 months late;

SHUTDOWN; final approps in January FY15: Budget 1 month late; final approps in December

BCA takes effect: first year of caps

Sequestration kicks in (delayed and reduced by the American Taxpayer Relief Act)

Budget warfare resolved by Bipartisan Budget Act (restores some funding in FY14, FY15)

The Fiscal Context for FY 2015 Congress keeps (partially) restoring funding

FY15: 21% reduction in cuts

Discretionary spending cap is only 0.2% above FY14 before inflation Very little room for any sort of program growth… …reflected in the President’s budget

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

TOTAL

Homeland Security

DOD S&T

Environ Protection Agency

National Science Foundation

Veterans Affairs

NASA

National Institutes of Health

Agriculture

DOE Science

DOD Other

Transportation

NOAA

NIST

US Geological Survey

DOE Energy Programs

DOE Defense

R&D in the FY15 Base Budgetpercent change from FY14, constant dollars

Source: AAAS analysis of the FY 2015 President's Budget. Does not include additional funding proposed via Opportunity, Growth, and Security Initiative. NOTE: Inflation is 1.7%. © 2014 AAAS

Admin R&D Priorities for FY15 Department of Energy: NNSA, renewables and

efficiency, ARPA-E Neuroscience NASA: industry partnerships Transportation: highways and high-performance rail Extramural ag research Advanced Manufacturing Environmental research

Plus: an extra $5.3 billion in the “Opportunity, Growth and Security Initiative”

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

Dept. ofDefense S&T

Commerce,Justice,Science

Energy &Water

Agriculture Interior andEnvironment

Labor, HHS,Education*

FY 2015 R&D Appropriations by Select Spending BillEstimated funding as a percent of FY 2012, in constant dollars

2012 2013 2014 2015 Request 2015 House 2015 Senate 2015 Omnibus

*Not introduced in House.CJS bill includes NSF, NASA, Commerce. Source: AAAS analyses of agency budget documents and appropriations bills and reports.FY 2014 figures are current estimates. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2014 AAAS

Notes on Appropriations

Some notable gainers: DOD, NSF research NIH Alzheimer’s research NASA (especially Planetary Science, Aeronautics,

exploration) USDA: Poultry science center funding, AFRI NOAA Research

Modest increases for NIST, USGS NSF construction, BRAIN Initiative fully funded

Notes on Appropriations

Most NIH institutes: sub-inflation Mixed outcomes for Office of Science programs, energy

technology programs EPA, NASA Earth Science cut No high-performance rail R&D

Omnibus also included ~$500 billion for Ebola-related research and clinical trials

Excluded DHS Most agencies ahead of the discretionary curve

Looking ahead to FY16… Back to sequester levels?

President to propose cap increase

Size and composition of the discretionary budget? Can R&D stay ahead of the curve?

Deficits have fallen, but big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged Debt limit, entitlement growth Reconciliation strategy?

For more info…

mhouriha@aaas.org

202-326-6607http

://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program