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THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI 21 ST MARCH 2013. MAIZE S&D – GLOBAL/INDIAN RABI 2013 PRODUCTION ESTIMATES INDIA MAIZE EXPORTS DESTINATION MARKETS MAIZE PX SERIES CHART FUTURE CHALLENGES ROLE OF INDIA IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE. FLOW OF PRESENTATION. MAIZE GLOBAL S&D. Source - IGC. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT
NEW DELHI
21ST MARCH 2013
FLOW OF PRESENTATION
• MAIZE S&D – GLOBAL/INDIAN• RABI 2013 PRODUCTION ESTIMATES• INDIA MAIZE EXPORTS• DESTINATION MARKETS• MAIZE PX SERIES CHART• FUTURE CHALLENGES• ROLE OF INDIA IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE
MAIZE GLOBAL S&DMARKET YEAR 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Production (MMT) 820 830 877 883
Trade (MMT) 86 93 97 99Consumption (MMT) 822 844 875 880
Carry over stocks (MMT) 145 131 133 132
Source - IGC
• CBOT prices which have tumbled in Nov and Dec have recovered some ground after Jan USDA report, which reported higher than expected feed usage
• Better crop estimates for US and Argentina, global output revised upwards by 38 mmt, to 883 mmt.
• Global end-season stocks expected to be down by 1m t y/y
• World consumption is revised higher, but forecasts for overall declines in both feed and industrial use remain.
CBOT PRICE SERIES CHART
US Drought fears
MARKET YEAR (OCT-SEPT.) 2010 2011 2012
Beginning Stocks (MMT) 0.453 0.576 0.756
Area Harvested (MHA) 8.6 8.67 8.5
Production (MMT) 21.73 21.57 20
Imports (MMT) 0.019 0.01 0.01
Total Supply (MMT) 22.202 22.156 20.766
Feed Domestic Consumption (MMT) 9 9 9.5
FSI Consumption (MMT) 9.1 8.6 8.5
Domestic Consumption (MMT) 18.1 17.6 18
Exports (MMT) 3.526 3.8 2.5
Total Demand (MMT) 21.626 21.4 20.5
Ending Stocks (MMT) 0.576 0.756 0.266
MAIZE INDIA S&D
IMPACT OF MAIZE INDIA S&D
• Drop in Kharif production from 16.2 to 14 .5 Mn YoY • Projected fall in exports due to Domestic S&D imbalance and
relatively bearish to stable international markets.• Ending stocks precariously low unless Rabi goes beyond 6.2 Mn • Later part of the year can see upsurge in domestic prices.• Improved poultry demand within India will add on to the existing
demand.• Alternate usages of corn increasing in starch/distillery/biofuel.
INDIA RABI PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 2012-13
Production (figures in '000 tons)
Major increase in production is expected in AP & Bihar …..
States 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13E
Andhra Pradesh 2.59 1.77 2.32 2.27 2.69
Bihar 1.34 1.08 1.02 0.99 1.23
Gujarat 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.23 0.20
Karnataka 0.31 0.26 0.33 0.43 0.41
Maharashtra 0.24 0.30 0.39 0.31 0.27
Tamil Nadu 0.57 0.45 0.47 0.77 0.97
West Bengal 0.09 0.13 0.08 0.28 0.16
All India 5.61 4.43 5.09 5.35 5.93
On the export front, in the current marketing year (Oct12-Sep13), total maize exports reported around 1.87 million tons during the October- February month.
During Feb month, 0.552 million tons corn exports reported to Indonesia, UAE, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, China, Bahrain, Singapore, Philippines through JNPT Sea, Chennai Sea & Vizag Sea port.
INDIAN MAIZE EXPORTS
COUNTRY TY 2011/12 OCT-12 TO FEB-13Indonesia 1.21 0.73Vietnam 1.30 0.28Malaysia 1.04 0.28Taiwan 0.34 0.15
Bangladesh 0.29 0.04Kenya 0.02 0.02Yemen 0.06 0.02
Singapore 0.05 0.01Cameroon 0.02 0.00
Others 0.59 0.35Grand Total 4.91 1.87
DESTINATION MARKETS AND EXPORTS
Vietnam had Trogoderma issues coupled with afla problems .
1.21
1.31.04
0.340.29
0.020.06
0.050.02
0.59
Indonesia Vietnam Malaysia Taiwan Bangladesh Kenya Yemen SingaporeCameroon Others
MAJOR DESTINATION MARKETS
* PRICES FOLLOWING A LONG TERM BULLISH TREND SO DO THE MSP
MAIZE PX SERIES CHART
5-Jan-0
5
16-Mar
-05
25-May
-05
3-Aug-0
5
12-Oct-
05
21-Dec
-05
1-Mar
-06
10-May
-06
19-Jul-0
6
27-Sep-0
6
6-Dec
-06
14-Feb-0
7
25-Apr-0
7
4-Jul-0
7
12-Sep-0
7
21-Nov-0
7
30-Jan-0
8
9-Apr-0
8
18-Jun-0
8
27-Aug-0
8
5-Nov-0
8
14-Jan-0
9
25-Mar
-09
3-Jun-0
9
12-Aug-0
9
21-Oct-
09
30-Dec
-09
10-Mar
-10
19-May
-10
28-Jul-1
0
6-Oct-
10
15-Dec
-10
23-Feb-1
1
4-May
-11
13-Jul-1
1
21-Sep-1
1
30-Nov-1
1
8-Feb
-12
18-Apr-1
2
27-Jun-1
2
5-Sep-1
2
14-Nov-1
20
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800NIZAMABAD MAIZE SPOT PRICES
NIZAMABAD
Axis Title
620 840
880
540
9801175
FUTURE CHALLENGES• STAGNATING PRODUCTION
• GMO still not allowed• Competing crops• Global warming leading to inconsistent weather.
• LACK OF QUALITY CONSISTENCY• High on aflatoxin & mycotoxins• Not deemed fit for human consumption in developed nations.• Lack of mechanization for harvesting
• LOGISTICAL ISSUES • Higher wastages during transit• Rail/road transport always a limiting factor for speedy movement• Frequent Port Congestions
• LACK OF QUALITY WAREHOUSING• Inadequate and poor quality warehousing facilities.• Long term storage always remains a concern.
THANK YOU
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