The new cold war? : Geopolitical implications of climate change in the arctic region

ENS 275 Term Paper Presentation ByRonald Edilberto A. OnaPhD Environmental Science

The New Cold War?

Climate Change in the Arctic Climate Change is now unequivocal

(IPCC 2007) Arctic Sea Ice Extent: 1980-2005

trend -2.7% per decade Summer minimum Arctic Sea Ice

Extent trend -7.4% September 2007 – record low of sea

ice extent, 38% below the 1979-2007 average

Lack of ice means less heat is reflected and water warms up

Effects on the Arctic Ocean Increased ocean temperature Decreased salinity Higher ocean levels

Who owns the Arctic?

NO ONE! But… eight countries are

geographically located close to the Arctic Region

Collectively known as the ‘Circumpolar Eight’ (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States)

Five out of the C8 countries share the Arctic coastline…and claims it!

Who claims pieces of the Arctic?

Why claim the Arctic?

United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea allows countries to claim 320 nautical kilometers beyond their coastline as Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)

Prove that the undersea shelf extends beyond your coastline and you get the right to exploit all natural resources within the EEZ

UNCLOS Article 76 specifically on the geopolitical implications of global warming on the Arctic

What awaits the winners?

RESOURCES…?! Potentially 29% of global natural gas

(50 Trillion cubic meters of natural gas Potentially 10% of global oil (90 Billion

barrels of oil) PASSAGE? The Northern Sea Route or

NSR offers about 40% shorter travel time compared to Suez or Panama Canal

The NSR: A new short cut! Between Europe and the U.S. West Coast,

or Between Northeast Asia and the Asia

Pacific Region Hamburg, Germany to Yokohama, Japan is

normally 18,400 kilometers BUT through the NSR, it is only 11,100 kilometers

Normally passable only during summers BUT with global warming, ALL YEAR ROUND!

The Northern Sea Route

The stakes are high!

According to Russia, there are 586 Billion barrels of oil in the Arctic part of Russia (EEZ)

If Russia gets its claims via UNCLOS, 2/3 of Global Hydrocarbon Reserves would be controlled by Russia

69% of the Arctic Reserves Belong or will likely belong to Russia

There are possible diamonds, gold, zinc and nickel deposits too!

A NEW COLD WAR IN THE ARCTIC? The chilling danger in the race for the

North Pole’s resources is the prospect of war on the top of the world.

A battle for the cold war is the coldest war of all, fought in a frozen waste land!

Will there be a shooting war or just a ‘Cold War’ just like the good old days of the USA vs. the USSR?

THE MIGHT OF THE RUSSIAN BEAR Russian Nuclear Arsenal: 4,147

warheads and 848 delivery vehicles in its Nuclear Triad

Land Based: Topol-M (SS-27) ICBM, 48 silo-based and 3 mobile system

Air Based: 141 Tu-22M3 Backfire, 40 Tu-95 MS Bear and 14 Tu-160 Blackjack

Sea Based: Borey class and Akula class Nuclear Submarine armed with Bulava and Sineva SLBM

The Strength of the American Eagle

Nuclear Arsenal: 4,075 warheads in its Nuclear Triad

Land Based: Minuteman III, Peacekeeper MX

Air Based: B-52H Stratofortress, B-1B Lancer, B-2A Spirit

Sea Based: Ohio class nuclear ballistic submarine armed with Trident I C-4 and Trident II D-5 SLBM

Has the Cold War started?

Russia is the first country to claim its EEZ in the Arctic Region via Article 76 of the UNCLOS. To backup its claim it sent a scientific expedition in summer of 2007 which reached the seabed of the Arctic Ocean, 4,261m below the North Pole. A Russian titanium flag was placed at the seabed.

The Russian Expedition

Mission: to gather scientific evidence to support the Russian claim via the Lomonosov and Alpha-Mendeelev Ridges

The planting of a titanium Russian flag on the Lomonosov Ridge

U.S. Reaction

Scramble the Ice BreakersIncrease Arctic Air PatrolsBoost for funding the U.S. Coast Guard / Arctic Missions

The Canadian Reaction

Operation Nanook: Two surface ships, a submarine, and 700 military personnel conducted Arctic military exercise

Big speeches by Prime Minister Harper belittling Russia’s action and reiterating Canada’s claim to the Arctic

New military bases to be established in the Arctic and an Arctic National Sensor System for submarines and surface ships

Danish Reaction

Scientific expedition launched with 40 scientists aboard a Swedish ice breaker

Mission: To gather evidence that the Lomonosov Ridge is an underwater extension of Greenland, not Russia

Bonus: Denmark Flag planting in the Hans Island (tiny uninhabited knoll with an area of 1.3 square kilometer

Norwegian Reaction

None. Silent. Why? It has a long history of strategic

partnership with Russia for oil and gas exploration.

Statoil and Norsk Hydro cooperate with Gazprom and Rosneft

Greenland and Alaska

In eastern Greenland, there are estimated 10 billion barrels of oil.

In the northern shelf of Alaska, there are about six billion barrels of oil.

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, if opened means more oil and gas.

Oil and Gas Industries in the Arctic Region

Exxon in Russia and Alaska Shell in Canada British Petroleum in Alaska Statoil in Norway and Russia Gazprom in Russia

Environmental Impact of the Oil and Gas Exploration

The impacts include changes to ocean level, ecosystem, global temperature and pollution.

Peace or War?

Conflict resolution via diplomacy and cooperation through arbitrary action via UNCLOS Article 76?

Joint research, exploration and cooperation via the Arctic Council?

Limited armed skirmishes among small military units?

Full scale naval warfare with limited nuclear engagement?

THOUGHTS TO PONDER:

Why should anyone own the Arctic? If the government of the Arctic claimant

countries believe that Climate Change is unequivocal and most have signed the Kyoto Protocol, why are they rushing to mine more fossil fuels in the Arctic?

Who support these activities? Those politicians? These policies?

Why should there be a new Cold War over fossil fuels in the Arctic?

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