The Nocebo Effect

The Nocebo Effect

HW3

Not Fallacies

The following things are not fallacies:

• Having traditions• Being popular• Lacking evidence

Appeal to Tradition

Some people have the “traditional” belief that keeping a pet turtle slows down your business and ruins your fortune.

There are lots of reasons they might have for this: belief in sympathetic magic, confirmation bias, hearsay, etc. None of these are good reasons.

Appeal to Tradition

But just because someone has a traditional belief that is false and held for bad reasons does not mean they’ve committed the ‘appeal to tradition’ fallacy.

The fallacy only happens when someone presents the fact that this is a traditional belief as a reason to believe it.

Appeal to Tradition

“Marriage has traditionally been between a man and a woman, therefore, gay marriage should not be allowed.”

Appeal to Popularity

Many things are popular and widely believed. Some of them are false – like the belief that aliens visited ancient humans on Earth.

This does not mean that the ‘appeal to popularity’ fallacy has been committed!

Bad Reasons

Bad reasons to believe in aliens:• Erich von Daniken told you to.• That gold thingy sort of looks like a spaceship.• Ancient Indian texts talk about flying chariots

called ‘vimanas.’• No one could build the pyramids without the

help of alien technology.• It’s possible for aliens to come and visit.

Appeal to Popularity

If those are the reasons you believe aliens came to Earth, then you are not committing the appeal to popularity fallacy – even if your belief is a popular one!

To commit the fallacy, you have to argue that the reason to believe in aliens is that lots of other people believe in aliens.

Appeal to Popularity

“In history, Buddhists talk about karma. Christians talk about deeds. Taoists talk about te. Other spiritual beings talk about virtue. These are different words for the same thing. Millions of people believe in karma. Millions of people desperately want to clear their own karma.” -- The Power of Soul, Zhi Gang Sha(Also note equivocation)

Appeal to Popularity

After Fukushima, many people in China and California rushed out to buy salt.Why? Some people may have had some dumb scientific idea, but for most it was because that’s what everyone else was doing.

No Reasons

Sometimes people believe things that there is no evidence to support.

This might be bad, but it’s not a fallacy.

A fallacy is a misleading form of argument. But having no argument is not the same as having a misleading one!

N

How many people do you have to survey to find out what everyone believes? If there are 7 million Hong Kongers, do you have to ask 7 million people?

NO: http://help.surveymonkey.com/articles/en_US/kb/How-many-respondents-do-I-need

N

Let’s imagine that the HK population is 10 million.

Then, according to the chart, if we ask 400 (randomly selected) people what they think, and 82% of them say “X,” then we know that between 77% and 87% of all 10 million say “X.”

Survey Methodology

Do NOT, EVER, tell me that “they only looked at 1,000 people, how can this reflect what 7 million Hong Kongers think.” NEVER.

If you don’t understand the math, that’s fine. But good survey methodology is good, and shouldn’t be doubted out of ignorance.

Straw Man Fallacy

Many in Hong Kong think that President Benigno Aquino of the Philippines should apologize for the Manila bus crisis.

Straw Man

Aquino argues:1. No one should apologize for something that

they did not do. 2. Rolando Mendoza acted alone in taking

hostages and in killing hostages. The Philippine government didn’t do it and the Philippine people didn’t do it.

3. Therefore, the government/ people of the Philippines should not apologize.

Straw Man Fallacy

A straw man argument is where you mischaracterize your opponent’s claims or reasons for those claims. You show that the mischaracterization is false or misleading, and then claim that your opponent believes false claims or has bad reasons for her claims.

Straw Man Fallacy

Aquino is suggesting that people want him to apologize for Mendoza’s actions.

BUT that is not what people want. They want him to apologize for the Philippine government’s actions: specifically, the way the crisis was mishandled by the police.

Distribution Fallacy

The distribution fallacy is when you assume that the parts have the same properties as the whole they comprise:

1. Lingnan has a great philosophy department.2. Therefore, Michael is a great philosopher.

1. For the “whole” of Hong Kong kindergartens, there is enough space for all children to go to school.

2. Demand is for 168,000 spaces, but there are a total of 241,000 spaces.

3. Therefore, there is no shortage of space in kindergartens.

Distribution Fallacy

Just because there is enough space in the whole system does not mean there is enough space in the high-demand districts.

Mainlanders want to go to kindergarten in the northern districts, because that’s closer to China. These kindergarten seats have much lower availability.

False Dilemma

The false dilemma fallacy is when someone presents two options as the only possible options, when in fact there are other options.

False Dilemma

“Every nation has to either be with us, or against us. Those who harbor terrorists, or who finance them, are going to pay a price.” – Hilary Clinton

False Dilemma

“Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.” – George W. Bush

National Education

1. We can either have national education with the materials we now have, or not have national education.

2. The materials now falsely portray China and ignore historical events like Tiananmen Square.

National Education

3. Therefore, there should be no national education in Hong Kong.

HW4

“Bacon Lowers Sperm Count”

“Researchers found that men who regularly ate processed meat had significantly lower amounts of normal sperm, compared with those who limited the amount of foods like bacon, sausages, hamburgers, ham and mince.”

Correlated Variables

A1 = Eating processed meat.B1 = Low semen quality (sperm count, size, shape).

A2 = Eating fish.B2 = High semen quality.

A causes B?

Processed meat lower sperm count because it makes you fat:

“male obesity impacts negatively on male reproductive potential not only reducing sperm quality, but in particular altering the physical and molecular structure of germ cells in the testes and ultimately mature sperm.”

A causes B?

Processed Meat → Fat → Low Sperm Quality

Common Cause?

Testosterone is a hormone that influences sperm development. Eating meat increases testosterone. Maybe if you lack testosterone, your body wants meat to get more of it.

Common Cause

Eating Meat to Replace Testosterone↑

Low Testosterone↓

Low Sperm Count

Extra Problem!

“The study by Harvard University on 156 men in couples suffering problems conceiving examined their diet and the size and shape of their sperm.”

Stroke and Airports

“A study published online by the British Medical Journal looking at the health of people living in the vicinity of Heathrow airport found those with the highest exposure were 10-20% more likely to be admitted to hospital for stroke, coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease. There was also an increased risk of death from those diseases.”

Correlations

A = Living near an airport.B = Having/ Dying from heart disease.

Controlling For

The researchers controlled for socioeconomic status and ethnicity.

This means that among poor people, those who lived near the airport were more likely to have heart disease. And among rich people it was the same. White people near the airport had more heart disease; black people did too.

A causes B?

The noise of living near the airport “rais[es]blood pressure or… disturb[s] people's sleep.” Higher blood pressure and lack of sleep then cause heart problems.

A causes B?

Loud Noise ↓

High Blood Pressure ↓

Heart Disease

Common Cause

Stressful job: people who live near airports are more likely to work at airports, and fly a lot.

Living Near an Airport↑

Working at an Airport↓

Stress, Heart Disease

Correlation

“[A]mong first-year students, those who sent the most text messages had the poorest sleep habits and lowest levels of emotional well-being.”

A causes B

A = texting B = sleeping poorly/ feeling bad

“If you’re texting a lot, that’s actually work. It takes time,” Murdock said. “If you’re feeling overloaded and also texting a lot, the texting might be adding to your burden.”

Common Cause?

Maybe texting doesn’t add to your life burden. Maybe you text because your life is difficult. For example, you might have a long conversation with a girlfriend/ boyfriend/ parent/ sibling during difficult times, but a short one during normal times.

Common Cause?

Texting a lot with friends/ family/ partners↑

Difficult time in your life↓

Feeling stressed, not sleeping

THE NOCEBO EFFECT

If it works, it doesn’t matter how

A common defense of “placebo medicine” (medicine that was no better than a placebo) is that it didn’t matter whether the treatment caused the improvement or our beliefs about the treatment caused the improvement—

The improvement is all that matters!

The Nocebo Effect

‘Placebo’ is Latin for “I will please,” and the placebo effect is when a treatment that doesn’t by itself cause any improvement leads to positive expectations in the patient that cause improvement.

‘Nocebo’ means “I will harm,” and the nocebo effect is when an inactive treatment causes harm, because we believe that it will.

Basic Tastes

In the early 20th Century, Western scientists thought that there were 4 basic tastes:

• Sweet: peach, strawberry, honey• Sour: lemon, grape, tamarind, kimchi• Salty: salt • Bitter: lime, chocolate, coffee, dark greens

Spicy!

Asian scientists actually recognized another taste: spicy!

Umami

In 1908 Kikunae Ikeda proposed another basic taste: umami (savory, meaty). He isolated the chemical that caused it (glutamate) and found a way to powerfully increase the flavor (MSG).

Umami: Cheese, soy sauce, tomatoes, beans, mushrooms, seaweed.

“Chinese Restaurant Syndrome”

In 1986, Dr. Robert Ho Man Kwok wrote a letter to the New England Journal of Medicine, describing the symptoms he seemed to experience after eating Northern Chinese food in America: “numbness at the back of the neck, gradually radiating to both arms and the back, general weakness and palpitation.” He speculated that MSG was the cause.

CRS and MSG

In 1987, an article was published in the prestigious journal Science blaming MSG.

Since then, a large number of Americans have come to believe that they are allergic to MSG and experience CRS.

Even in Hong Kong, I see restaurants all the time that advertise “No MSG!”

Silliness

But this is ridiculous!

1. MSG is delicious.2. Glutamate is in everything with an umami

flavor. There’s lots of it in tomatoes.3. All the science says that CRS is a nocebo

effect.

And the Science Says…

In fact, in multiple double-blind placebo-controlled trials conducted by Geha et. al. (2000), where all the participants believed they were sensitive to/ allergic to MSG, it was found that there was no difference in reaction between the MSG group (experimental) and the placebo control group. Other similar studies have had similar results.

Why?

Where did this belief come from? Well, it probably began with normal accidental correlations, confirmation bias (only noticing the times when you felt less than perfect after eating Chinese) and “goalpost shifting”: http://www.saynotomsg.com/basics_symptoms.php lists 62 different symptoms of MSG. How likely is it that you experience one by accident every time you eat Chinese?

And Racism

You also can never rule out the fact that some Americans are racially prejudiced against Chinese. They perceive the food as alien and different and thus judge it as wrong and unhealthy, not suited for “civilized” people. (I’m sure a lot of this is unconscious.)

More Nocebo

Recently, people have started to report “Wind Turbine Syndrome.” People living near turbines have complained of lost sleep, headaches, nasuea, memory loss, dizziness, depression… an astonishing 155 symptoms in total!

Why?

First, this isn’t real. There are no noticeable differences in health problems in communities situated near wind farms, as all 17 studies of the effects of wind farms on health have shown.

http://theconversation.edu.au/wind-turbine-syndrome-a-classic-communicated-disease-8318

Making People Sick for Money

But oil and gas companies (and the politicians they’ve purchased) have an interest in convincing people that alternative energy is bad for them.

What began as someone misinterpreting the cause of (probably real) symptoms, has become a case of demagogues convincing people to be sick for their own political aims.

The Point

Something is wrong with the argument “if it works, it doesn’t matter how it works” for placebos.

The same argument could be given for nocebos: “if it hurts, it doesn’t matter how it hurts: so stop using MSG, and get rid of those wind farms!”