The US Economy /2015 Index Charts, Fed Funds Rate, Oil Real Estate

The US Economy /2015

Index Charts, Fed Funds Rate, Oil

Real Estate

US Stock Markets

Historic Charts

• Past tech revolutions led to stock market bubbles• To maintain current share values would require 4% growth AND a rising

share of profits contributing to GDP in the future (unlikely)Shiller, Robert J. (2000) Irrational Exuberance (Hardcover) Princeton University Press (March 15, 2000) ISBN-13: 978-0691050621

Jeffry A. Timmons (1994) New Venture Creation: Entrepreneurship for the 21st Century. Irwin. ISBN 0256115486

S&P 500 September 2008 to July 2009 – the crash!

DJIA 1900 to Current

DJIA 1900 to Current – Not on Log Scale

DJIA 1906 to 1950

Company Symbol Industry 3M MMM Diversified industrialsAlcoa AA Aluminum American Express AXP Consumer finance AT&T T Telecommunication Bank of America BAC Institutional and retail bankingBoeing BA Aerospace & defense Caterpillar CAT Construction and mining equipment Chevron Corporation CVX Oil and gas Cisco Systems (formerly GM) CSCO Computer networking Coca-Cola KO Beverages DuPont DD Commodity chemicals ExxonMobil XOM Integrated oil & gasGeneral Electric GE ConglomerateHewlett-Packard HPQ Diversified computer systems IBM IBM Computer servicesIntel INTC Semiconductors Johnson & Johnson JNJ Pharmaceuticals JPMorgan Chase JPM BankingKraft Foods KFT Food processingMcDonald's MCD Restaurants & bars Merck MRK Pharmaceuticals Microsoft MSFT Software Pfizer PFE Pharmaceuticals Procter & Gamble PG Non-durable household productsThe Home Depot HD Home improvement retailersTravelers (formerly CitiBank) TRV Insurance United Technologies Corporation UTX Aerospace, heating/cooling, elevatorsVerizon Communications VZ Telecommunication Wal-Mart WMT Broadline retailers Walt Disney DIS Broadcasting & entertainment

S&P 500 – 1986 to today

NASDAQ 1978 to Present

The Dot Com Bubble

FOMC – Fed Funds Rate

0.0% to 0.25% or 25 basis points

http://online.wsj.com/news/interactive/INVESTOR0104?ref=SB10001424052702303640604579296464068676966

Fed funds: Leader of the interest rate packBy Bankrate.com

Here's how the Federal Reserve Board's changes to the federal funds rate have been reflected in other key interest rates over the past 10 years.

Key interest rates

Aug. 28, 1996 through Jan.31, 2007

Federal Funds Rate FOMC

Federal Funds Rate, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NBER 2007 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: research.stlouisfed.org.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/118/Custom?cs=Medium&crb=on&cosd=2000&coed=2006-05-01&cg=Go

The “Greenspan Put”Greenspan Put“Free Money” 0 to .25%

Federal Funds Rate, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NBER 2007 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: research.stlouisfed.org. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/chart?cid=118&fgid=&fgcid=&ct=&pt=&cs=Medium&crb=on&cf=lin&range=Custom&cosd=1995-01-01&coed=2007-06-13&asids=+%3CEnter+Series+ID%3E&same_scale=1&cg2=Refresh+Graph

Greenspan Put

WSJ 10/9/2013 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520704579125341760473438.html?KEYWORDS=taking+the+hot+seat

WSJ.com July 31, 3012 from http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444130304577559320750777782.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

WSJ 8/30/2013 In Turmoil, Emerging Markets Raise Rates Move by Indonesia Follows Brazil, Turkey; Trend Threatens to Deepen Slowdown. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324324404579043362869382586.html?KEYWORDS=in+turmoil+emerging+markets

Fed Funds Rate 1954 to Present

Federal Funds Rate, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NBER 2007 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: research.stlouisfed.org.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/118

Core CPI vs. Fed Easing Cycles: 1960 – 2006. Seeking Alpha. Stock Market Opinion & Analysis. http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/core_cpi_y_y.jpg

Interesting Tid Bits

4/27/2013

WSJ, July 27, 2012 at http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443477104577553431459135876.html

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/newspapers-are-americas-fastest-shrinking-industry/254307/

WSJ August 24-25, 2013 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324619504579031300409638802.html?KEYWORDS=CEO+exit+sets+microsoft+on+new+path

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324886704579052380986072894.html?KEYWORDS=smartphone+sale#project%3DNOKFADE0904%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive

WSJ 9/4/2013

Labor Cost ComparisonAuto Worker

• US autoworker with benefits $54/hr• South Korean worker $22/hr• Mexican worker $10/hr• Some Chinese workers $3/hr

Source: Washington Post 5/11/09

WSJ, 8/3/2012 at http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444320704577566790169187310.html?mod=WSJPRO_hpp_LEFTTopStories#project%3DJOBSHISTORY09%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive

Inside Your iPhone. New York Times July 5, 2010http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/07/05/technology20100706-iphone-graphic.html?ref=technology

iPhone Produces $306 for Apple

http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

World GDP in USD

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2008-115a.pdf

Real Estate

Case Shiller Home Price Index

Various Pictures

The Mess That Greenspan Made. Blogspot. October 30, 2005.http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2005/10/housing-costs-core-cpi-recap.html

OFHEO = Office of Federal Housing EnterpriseOversight

http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/

Case Shiller Home Price Index

US national index levels, not seasonally adjusted. Historic prices are inflation adjusted May 2012 dollars.

http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_composite_20#series=type:indicator,id:case_shiller_home_price_index_composite_20,calc:&zoom=10&startDate=&endDate=&format=real&recessions=false

A History of Home Values. New York Times. Available http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif

http://www.housedata.info/rank/yr5/

Professor Piggington’s Econo-Almanac for the Landed Poor. Available http://piggington.com/a_history_of_home_values_graph_by_robert_j_schiller

• “One definition of recession is two consecutive quarters with a declining gross domestic product.”

MSNBC News: Opinion Slate. Economic blame game. Why does Bush keep lying about when the recession started? By Daniel GrossJanuary 1, 2002. http://stacks.msnbc.com/news/853442.asp?cp1=1#BODY

• In economics, a recession is a general slowdown in economic activity in a country over a sustained period of time, or a business cycle contraction.[1][2] During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Production as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes and business profits all fall during recessions. (Wikipedia)

[1] "Recession". Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/recession. Retrieved on 19 November 2008.

[2] "Recession definition". Encarta® World English Dictionary [North American Edition]. Microsoft Corporation. 2007. http://encarta.msn.com/encnet/features/dictionary/DictionaryResults.aspx?refid=1861699686. Retrieved on 19 November 2008.

http://www.nber.org/releases/

Petroleum – Various Pictures

WTI “Light Sweet Crude”

Brent North Sea

Light Sweet Crude 83 to present

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Brent_Spot_monthly.svg

Brent North Sea Oil Price 1987 to 2011

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-west-texas-intermediate&months=360

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USCRWTIC:IND/chart

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg

WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Chart

http://ycharts.com/indicators/crude_oil_spot_price/chart#series=type:indicator,id:crude_oil_spot_price,calc:&zoom=10&startDate=&endDate=&format=real&recessions=false

US Dollar vs. Euro

Google Finance: US Dollar vs. Euro http://finance.google.com/finance?q=USDEUR

US Dollar vs. Oil

http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/colombia/images/map.swf

The US Economy /2015 Index Charts, Fed Funds Rate, Oil Real Estate

Documents

® Banco Caminos, S.A. - afi.es Eurozona julio 2010.pdf · dor entre los fed funds y la pri-mary credit a 50 pb. 18 de septiembre de 2007: La Reserva Federal reduce los fed funds

Monetary Policy in the Early 1980s - Richmond Fed/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/working...by the Fed of the funds rate or the money supply as its primary policy variable

Answers to Review Questions 1.What should the Trading Desk do in the fed funds rate falls below the targeted rate? If the fed funds rate falls below

Fed funds decision clarifies ladera ranch mortgage interest rates

FOMC Preview: Fed is still waiting for news on ‘Trumponomics’ · •However, if the Fed needs to tighten monetary policy even further (four hikes or more, i.e. a fed funds rate

Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Priceseconweb.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/daily_ff.pdf · reviewing the time-series properties of daily changes in fed funds futures prices at 1- to 3-month

How the Fed chooses the Federal Funds Interest Rate Target Hal W. Snarr

General Session: Market Update - OhioTreasurerohiotreasurer.gov/CPIM/Files/CourseDocuments/3403-2017...Fed Funds Implied Probability of Rate Hike •The Fed Funds implied probability

MEFIM - GRETAche la Fed deciderà di mantenere invariati i tassi di riferimento sui fed funds nelle prossime riunioni, almeno fino all’inizio del nuovo anno (Scen. A, prob. 10% e

Supply: banks, Fed Money ioio Federal Funds Rate Banks increase lending as interest rates rise because it is more profitable The Fed manipulates the amount

BANMERCHANT ASSET MANAGEMENT · subida de tasa en Marzo con 96% de probabilidad | Mercado Internacional Proyecciones de tasa de referencia (FED Funds) por miembros de la Fed

Reference Guide: CBOT Fed Funds Futures - James … Fund Futures/Fed Funds...Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT®) Fed Funds futures (in the CBOT Rules and Regulations, ... As underlying

CORPORATE PROFITS SUPPORT EQUITY PERFORMANCE · monetary stimulus and quantitative easing. This was good for bonds as the Fed targeted a 0% Fed Funds rate and also bought long-term

Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Priceseconweb.ucsd.edu/~jhamilton/daily_ff.pdf3 Usefulness of futures for predicting fed funds rate . As documented by Krueger and Kuttner (1996),

Sequential Bargaining Model of the Fed Funds Market with .../media/publications/...The paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 provides background on the evolution of the federal funds

The UNITED STATES, Defendant. v. FAIRHOLME FUNDS, INC. et ... · Fairholme Funds, Inc. v. United States 2017 WL 4768385 (Fed. Cl. 2017) United States Court of Federal Claims. FAIRHOLME

An Empirical Study of Trade Dynamics in the Fed … Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department An Empirical Study of Trade Dynamics in the Fed Funds Market ∗ Gara Afonso and

The spillover eﬀects of target interest rate news from the ...Krueger and Kuttner (1996) find that the Fed funds futures rate is an efficient predictor of the Fed funds target rate

Chapter 9 Charts: Predicting the Fed · Chapter 9 Charts: Predicting the Fed Yardeni Research, Inc. ... 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99

DO FED JUDGES HAVE INVESTMENTS IN MBS?-- PAY ATTENTION TO S AND F FUNDS --Federal Government Retirement Funds and FRTIB Minutes Charts