The Wisconsin River TMDL: Linking Monitoring and Modeling Ann Hirekatur, Pat Oldenburg, & Adam...

The Wisconsin River TMDL:Linking Monitoring and Modeling

Ann Hirekatur, Pat Oldenburg, & Adam FreihoeferMarch 7, 2013

Wisconsin River TMDL Project TeamWDNR Bureau of Water Quality

The Wisconsin River Basin (WRB)

The WRB – A managed system

http://www.lakenokomiscc.org

Water Quality Concerns within the WRB

Petenwell and Castle Rock FlowagesFish Kills in Big Eau Pleine ReservoirDells of the Eau Claire

Runoff in the Baraboo

Pollutant Sources within the WRBN

on

po

int

So

urc

es

Non-MS4 Stormwater

Agricultural Runoff

Rill, Gully, & Bank Erosion

Construction

Barnyards

Po

int

So

urc

es

Municipal WasteIndustrial Waste

WRB Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL)

Waste Load Allocation• Municipal Wastewater• Industrial Wastewater• Stormwater (MS4s)

Load Allocation• Runoff from the landscape

Background Load• Naturally occurring from

wetlands, forests

Load Allocation

Waste LoadAllocation

Margin of Safety

TMDL

+ +

Each subwatershed is assessed for:

Components of the WRB TMDL

Monitoring• Flow• Chemistry• In-lake

Conceptualization• Data Analysis• Windshield

Surveys

Modeling• Watershed• Point Sources• Fate and Transport• Reservoirs

Allocations• Load• Wasteload• Margin of Safety

Draft TMDLInternal Review Public Comment

Final TMDL EPA Approval

Implementation

• Civic Engagement • Public Outreach/Communications

Past Activities in the WRB

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

1996Petenwell

Castle RockComprehensive

Management Plan

2001WDNR/USACE develop joint TMDL

monitoring proposal for $1.5 million. Proposal not funded

2004WDNR proposal to USEPA for river

water quality monitoring. Proposal not funded

2008First Pontoons and

Politics at Petenwell Castle Rock

2010WNDR receives Section 22

Planning Assistance from USACE

2009 – 2013Wisconsin River

TMDL Monitoring

2009State legislature appropriates $750,000

($150,000/yr. for 5 years) for monitoring upstream of Castle Rock

Wisconsin RiverTMDL

Monitoring

The WRB Monitoring - Modeling Relationship

Conceptualization

WRB Monitoring Approach

Critical IdeaDesign a monitoring plan that provides an understanding of the system and supports the modeling of the watershed & reservoirs

WRB Monitoring Approach

= ungauged tributary area

Tributary Watershed Loads19 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality

WRB Monitoring ApproachTributary Watershed Loads19 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality

Phosphorus Evaluation Sites98 stations with monthly P samples between May – October 2012 with 31 sites proposed for re-sample in 2013

WRB Monitoring ApproachTributary Watershed Loads19 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality

Phosphorus Evaluation Sites98 stations with monthly P samples between May – October 2012 with 31 sites proposed for re-sample in 2013

Main stem Loads13 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality

WRB Monitoring ApproachTributary Watershed Loads19 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality

Phosphorus Evaluation Sites98 stations with monthly P samples between May – October 2012 with 31 sites proposed for re-sample in 2013

Reservoirs5 major reservoirsBig Eau Pleine, Lake Dubay, Petenwell, Castle Rock , & Lake Wisconsin

Main stem Loads13 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality

• Simulates conditions on landscape each day based on climate data

• Input data intensive

• Output information is provided for each subwatershed defined (TMDL reach)

• Outputs include crop yields, discharge, sediment, & water chemistry

WRB Model Approach – Watershed

WRB Model Approach – Watershed

WATERSHED MODEL

Watershed Model Calibrated

Outputs

HydrographyFlow accumulation, Internal drainage, groundwater

200

9 –

201

3 C

on

dit

ion

s

TopographySlope

SoilsType and Attributes

Climate Precipitation, Temp, etc.

Land ManagementAgriculture, Urban

Land Cover

Model Input

Model Output

Point Sources

Model Calibration

Required

Petenwell Bathymetry(Developed by USACE)

WRB Model Approach – Reservoir

WRB Model Approach – Reservoir

Model Inputs

Reservoir Model

Outputs

RESERVOIRMODEL

Model Calibration

Required

Watershed Model Calibrated Outputs

Model Input

Model Output

WRB Model Approach – Model Calibration

• Calibration is process of matching the simulation to measured data

• Modeler adjusts model parameters to allow for better fit

Input Parameter Controls

Integrating Monitoring Data into Models

1. Assess the daily flow and TP concentrations

2. Use regression model to estimate monthly TP load, referred to as “measured load”

3. Compare the watershed model “simulated load” to the “measured load”. Adjust the model to reflect measured conditions, a process referred to as model calibration

Tributary Loads P Evaluation Sites River Loads Reservoirs

Dill Creek - Big Eau Pleine River

Integrating Monitoring Data into Models

Tributary Loads P Evaluation Sites River Loads Reservoirs

Jan-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-120

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1Big Eau Pleine River at State Hwy 97 (2010 - 2012)

Ave

rage

Dai

ly D

isch

arge

(cf

s)T

otal Ph

osph

orus C

oncen

tration (m

g/L)

Integrating Monitoring Data into Models

Tributary Loads P Evaluation Sites River Loads Reservoirs

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-120

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000Big Eau Pleine River at State Hwy 97 (2010 - 2012)

Measured Loads

Tot

al P

hos

ph

oru

s L

oad

(lb

s. p

er m

onth

)

Integrating Monitoring Data into Models

Tributary Loads P Evaluation Sites River Loads Reservoirs

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-120

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000Big Eau Pleine River at State Hwy 97 (2010 - 2012)

Measured Loads Simulated Loads

Tot

al P

hos

ph

oru

s L

oad

(lb

s. p

er m

onth

)

EXAMPLE

Integrating Monitoring Data into Models

Tributary Loads P Evaluation Sites River Loads Reservoirs

05/01/2012 05/31/2012 06/30/2012 07/30/2012 08/29/2012 09/28/2012 10/28/20120.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60Randall Creek Phosphorus Concentrations (2012)

Model Simulated TP ConcentrationMeasured Phosphorus

Dai

ly P

hos

ph

oru

s C

once

ntr

atio

n (

mg/

L)

EXAMPLE

Integrating Monitoring Data into Models

Tributary Loads P Evaluation Sites River Loads Reservoirs

• Same approach as the tributary loads (daily discharge, bi-monthly water quality)

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-120

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000Wisconsin River at Nekoosa (entering Petenwell) (2010 - 2012)

Measured Loads

Tot

al P

hos

ph

oru

s L

oad

(lb

s. p

er m

onth

)

Integrating Monitoring Data into Models

Tributary Loads P Evaluation Sites River Loads Reservoirs

• Same approach as the tributary loads (daily discharge, bi-monthly water quality)

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-120

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000Wisconsin River at Nekoosa (entering Petenwell) (2010 - 2012)

Measured Loads Simulated Loads

Tot

al P

hos

ph

oru

s L

oad

(lb

s. p

er m

onth

)

EXAMPLE

Integrating Monitoring Data into Models

Tributary Loads P Evaluation Sites River Loads Reservoirs

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 260

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Petenwell DO / Temp Profile (Measured vs. Model Simulated)

Measured DO Simulated DO Measured Temp Simulated Temp

Dep

th

EXAMPLE

Wrap-Up• The scale of the Wisconsin River TMDL required more monitoring sites, frequency

• Defining the question and the methods used at the start improved the project’s monitoring design.

• Each part of the TMDL (monitoring, load calculations, watershed modeling) introduces uncertainty. In many cases, a robust monitoring dataset improves our understanding and limits the uncertainty with respect to the model results.

Questions?

Contact the Wisconsin River TMDL Project Teamdnrwisconsinrivertmdl@wisconsin.gov