The Worldwide Market for Lasers - Strategies U...13 Chapter 1: Executive Summary & Totals 1.1...

The Worldwide Market for Lasers Trends and Five-Year Forecast (2019 – 2025)

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Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Executive Summary & Totals ......................................................................................... 13 1.1 The Overall Laser Market .................................................................................................... 13 1.2 First there was 2017 .......................................................................................................... 13 1.3 From 2018 and beyond ...................................................................................................... 14 1.4 Historic Laser Revenue ....................................................................................................... 15

1.4.1 The Laser Market by Segment ....................................................................................... 16 1.5 Laser Market by Laser Type ................................................................................................ 20

1.5.1 Total Laser Revenue .................................................................................................... 22 1.6 Laser Market Summary....................................................................................................... 23

Chapter 2: Introduction .................................................................................................................... 25 2.1 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 25 2.2 Types of Commercial CO2 Lasers ......................................................................................... 25

2.2.1 Solid-state lasers ......................................................................................................... 26 2.2.2 Lamp-Pumped Solid-State Lasers (LPSSLs) ...................................................................... 27 2.2.3 Diode-Pumped Solid-State Lasers (DPSSLs) ..................................................................... 28 2.2.4 Thin-Disk Lasers .......................................................................................................... 28 2.2.5 Slab Lasers ................................................................................................................. 29 2.2.6 OPSLs ........................................................................................................................ 29 2.2.7 Fiber Lasers ................................................................................................................ 29 2.2.8 Quantum-cascade Lasers .............................................................................................. 31 2.2.9 CO2 Lasers .................................................................................................................. 31 2.2.10 Excimer Lasers ............................................................................................................ 33 2.2.11 Other Laser Types ....................................................................................................... 34

2.3 Pulsed Lasers .................................................................................................................... 34 2.3.1 Pump or seed modulation ............................................................................................. 34 2.3.2 Q-switching ................................................................................................................ 34 2.3.3 Mode-locking .............................................................................................................. 35 2.3.4 Ultrafast pulses ........................................................................................................... 35

2.4 Eyesafe Operation ............................................................................................................. 35 Chapter 3: kW Materials Processing ................................................................................................ 37

3.1 Highlights ......................................................................................................................... 37 3.2 Background ...................................................................................................................... 37

3.2.1 Segment definition ....................................................................................................... 37 3.2.2 Prices for laser-based machine tools ............................................................................... 38 3.2.3 A comment on beam quality .......................................................................................... 38 3.2.4 Fiber Beam Adjustment ................................................................................................ 39 3.2.5 Laser type .................................................................................................................. 39

3.3 Laser Metal Cutting ............................................................................................................ 40 3.3.1 Laser metal cutting is a high value and high-volume application ......................................... 40

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3.3.2 Lasers provide a big advantage over other tools for metal cutting ....................................... 40 3.3.3 Job shops buy most of these lasers ................................................................................ 40 3.3.4 2D Laser Cutters .......................................................................................................... 41 3.3.5 3D Laser Cutters .......................................................................................................... 42 3.3.6 Laser Tube Cutters ...................................................................................................... 42 3.3.7 Fiber Lasers ................................................................................................................ 42 3.3.8 Power Levels and Fiber vs. CO2 ...................................................................................... 43 3.3.9 Fiber Laser Revenue will well Exceed CO2 Revenue in 2020 ................................................ 44 3.3.10 Lamp Pumped Solid State Lasers.................................................................................... 44 3.3.11 Direct Diode Lasers ...................................................................................................... 44 3.3.12 Thin Metal vs. Thick Metal Cutting .................................................................................. 44

3.4 Metal Welding and Brazing.................................................................................................. 45 3.4.1 Auto Industry .............................................................................................................. 45 3.4.2 2D vs. 3D Welding ....................................................................................................... 46 3.4.3 Alternatives to Laser Welding ........................................................................................ 46 3.4.4 Fiber Lasers Offer New Opportunities.............................................................................. 47 3.4.5 Disk Lasers ................................................................................................................. 48 3.4.6 CO2 Lasers .................................................................................................................. 48 3.4.7 Solid-State Lasers ........................................................................................................ 49 3.4.8 Direct Diode Lasers ...................................................................................................... 49 3.4.9 Power Levels ............................................................................................................... 49 3.4.10 Fiber and Switched Fiber Delivery .................................................................................. 50

3.5 Surface Treatment and Other Processes ............................................................................... 50 3.5.1 Surface Treatment Processes......................................................................................... 50 3.5.2 Heat Treatment and Other Surface Treatment Processes ................................................... 50 3.5.3 Laser Cladding ............................................................................................................ 50 3.5.4 Laser Shot Peening ...................................................................................................... 50 3.5.5 Nonmetal Materials Processing....................................................................................... 51 3.5.6 Fringe Applications ....................................................................................................... 51

3.6 High-Power Industrial Laser Forecast ................................................................................... 51 3.6.1 KiloWatt+ Industrial Laser Forecast by Process Application 2019 - 2025............................... 53 3.6.2 KiloWatt+ Industrial Laser Forecast by Laser Type ............................................................ 54 3.6.3 CO2 Advantages and Disadvantages ............................................................................... 56 3.6.4 Fiber Lasers ................................................................................................................ 57 3.6.5 Direct Diode Lasers ...................................................................................................... 58

Chapter 4: Micro Materials Processing ............................................................................................. 60 4.1 Highlights ......................................................................................................................... 60 4.2 Background ...................................................................................................................... 60

4.2.1 Semiconductors, PC Boards, and Displays ........................................................................ 61 4.2.2 Fine Metal Processing ................................................................................................... 62 4.2.3 Non-metal Processing ................................................................................................... 62 4.2.4 Additive Manufacturing ................................................................................................. 62 4.2.5 Solar .......................................................................................................................... 64

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4.3 Forecast ........................................................................................................................... 65 Chapter 5: Marking ........................................................................................................................... 69

5.1 Highlights ......................................................................................................................... 69 5.2 Marking Trends ................................................................................................................. 69 5.3 Marking Laser Forecasts ..................................................................................................... 70

Chapter 6: Photolithography ............................................................................................................ 73 6.1 Highlights ......................................................................................................................... 73 6.2 Background ...................................................................................................................... 73 6.3 3D Packaging.................................................................................................................... 75 6.4 Photolithography Laser Forecasts ......................................................................................... 76

Chapter 7: Printing ........................................................................................................................... 78 7.1 Highlights ......................................................................................................................... 78 7.2 Background and Trends...................................................................................................... 78 7.3 Printing Laser Forecast ....................................................................................................... 80 7.4 Key Laser Suppliers ........................................................................................................... 82 7.5 Summary ......................................................................................................................... 82

Chapter 8: Medical ............................................................................................................................ 84 8.1 Highlights ......................................................................................................................... 84 8.2 Background ...................................................................................................................... 84

8.2.1 Medical Laser Delivery .................................................................................................. 85 8.2.2 How Medical Lasers Are Counted ................................................................................... 86

8.3 Cosmetic & Dermatology Lasers .......................................................................................... 87 8.3.1 Types of Cosmetic Lasers for Skin .................................................................................. 87 8.3.2 Dermatology and Cosmetic System Vendors .................................................................... 89 8.3.3 At Home Lasers ........................................................................................................... 90

8.4 Ophthalmic Lasers ............................................................................................................. 91 8.4.1 Laser Vision Correction ................................................................................................. 91 8.4.2 Cataract Treatment ...................................................................................................... 92 8.4.3 Glaucoma Treatment .................................................................................................... 93 8.4.4 Ophthalmic System Vendors .......................................................................................... 93

8.5 Surgical Lasers .................................................................................................................. 94 8.5.1 General Surgery .......................................................................................................... 94 8.5.2 Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) ........................................................................................ 95 8.5.3 Revascularization (improving blood flow in heart muscle) .................................................. 95 8.5.4 Cardiovascular Photoablation (clearing arteries) ............................................................... 95 8.5.5 Surgical Laser Saws ..................................................................................................... 96 8.5.6 BPH (Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia) Treatment ................................................................. 96 8.5.7 General Laser-Based Surgical System Vendors ................................................................. 96 8.5.8 Mid-IR Surgical System Vendors..................................................................................... 97

8.6 Dental Lasers .................................................................................................................... 98 8.6.1 Dental Laser Uses ........................................................................................................ 98 8.6.2 Dental Laser Prices ...................................................................................................... 98 8.6.3 Dental Laser System Vendors ........................................................................................ 98

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8.7 Medical Laser Forecasts ...................................................................................................... 99 Chapter 9: Military .......................................................................................................................... 104

9.1 Highlights ....................................................................................................................... 104 9.2 Overview........................................................................................................................ 104 9.3 Directed Energy Weapons ................................................................................................. 105

9.3.1 Types and Laser Powers ............................................................................................. 107 9.3.2 Recent Laser Projects in Development .......................................................................... 108 9.3.3 Directed Energy Contractors ........................................................................................ 111

9.4 Mid-Infrared Missile Countermeasures ................................................................................ 111 9.4.1 IRCM Deployment ...................................................................................................... 112 9.4.2 IRCM Challenges ....................................................................................................... 112 9.4.3 IRCM Types .............................................................................................................. 112 9.4.4 Other Solutions ......................................................................................................... 113 9.4.5 IRCM Contractors ...................................................................................................... 115 9.4.6 IRCM Forecasts ......................................................................................................... 117 9.4.7 IRCM Laser Suppliers ................................................................................................. 118

9.5 Rangefinders, Designators, and LIDAR ............................................................................... 119 9.5.1 Laser Ranging System Forecasts .................................................................................. 119 9.5.2 Laser Ranging System Vendors .................................................................................... 120

9.6 Illuminators, Gun Sights, and Dazzlers ................................................................................ 120 9.6.1 Dazzler History .......................................................................................................... 121 9.6.2 Military Illumination Suppliers ...................................................................................... 122

9.7 Military Laser Diode Manufacturers .................................................................................... 122 9.8 Free-Space Communications ............................................................................................. 123 9.9 Military Free-Space Communications Laser Diode Manufacturers ............................................ 123 9.10 Other Military Laser Projects ............................................................................................. 123 9.11 Military Laser Forecasts .................................................................................................... 124 9.12 Military Laser Suppliers..................................................................................................... 126

Chapter 10: Research & Development ............................................................................................. 129 10.1 Highlights ....................................................................................................................... 129 10.2 R&D Laser Applications .................................................................................................... 129 10.3 R&D Laser Forecast ......................................................................................................... 130

Chapter 11: Sensors.......................................................................................................................... 134 11.1 Highlights ....................................................................................................................... 134 11.2 Why is Sensing Still So Important? ..................................................................................... 134 11.3 Fiber Sensors .................................................................................................................. 136

11.3.1 Fiber Sensor Application Description ............................................................................. 139 11.3.2 Fiber Sensor Success .................................................................................................. 141 11.3.3 Fiber Sensor Laser Forecasts ....................................................................................... 142 11.3.4 Suppliers .................................................................................................................. 143

11.4 Lasers for Telecom Instrumentation ................................................................................... 144 11.4.1 Telecom Instrumentation Laser Forecast ....................................................................... 145 11.4.2 Key Customers .......................................................................................................... 146

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11.4.3 Key Equipment Vendors .............................................................................................. 146 11.4.4 Key Laser Suppliers .................................................................................................... 146

11.5 CW and Ultrafast Lasers for Spectroscopy ........................................................................... 146 11.5.1 Biomedical and Instrumentation Spectroscopy Applications .............................................. 146 11.5.2 Lower-cost CW lasers for Biomedical Instrument Applications ........................................... 147 11.5.3 Ultrafast lasers for Biomedical Instruments & Spectroscopy .............................................. 148 11.5.4 Ultrafast laser requirements for spectroscopy ................................................................. 148 11.5.5 Raman Spectroscopy .................................................................................................. 148 11.5.6 Key Customers .......................................................................................................... 151 11.5.7 CW and ultrafast Lasers for Spectroscopy Suppliers ........................................................ 151

11.6 Mid-IR Lasers for Spectroscopy ......................................................................................... 152 11.6.1 Micro Spectroscopy .................................................................................................... 152 11.6.2 Mid-IR Lasers Applications .......................................................................................... 153 11.6.3 Mid-IR Lasers for Spectroscopy Forecast ....................................................................... 156 11.6.4 Mid-IR Spectroscopy Laser Suppliers ............................................................................ 157

11.7 UV Lasers for Wafer and Mask Inspection ........................................................................... 158 11.7.1 Lasers for semiconductor inspection and metrology ........................................................ 158 11.7.2 The Need for More UV Light Sources ............................................................................ 159 11.7.3 Forecast for Laser-Based Inspection Tools ..................................................................... 159

11.8 Flow Cytometry ............................................................................................................... 161 11.8.1 Flow Cytometry Uses .................................................................................................. 161 11.8.2 How Flow Cytometry Works ........................................................................................ 161 11.8.3 Flow Cytometry Forecast............................................................................................. 161

11.9 Light Detection and Ranging ............................................................................................. 163 11.9.1 LIDAR Uses............................................................................................................... 164 11.9.2 LIDAR Problems ........................................................................................................ 164 11.9.3 LIDAR Laser Forecasts ................................................................................................ 165 11.9.4 LIDAR Laser Manufacturers ......................................................................................... 166

11.10 Mice & Gesture Recognition...................................................................................... 166 11.10.1 Laser Mice ................................................................................................................ 167 11.10.2 Mice & Gesture Recognition Forecasts ........................................................................... 168

11.11 Barcode & Levelers ................................................................................................. 168 11.11.1 Barcode Readers ....................................................................................................... 168 11.11.2 Levelers ................................................................................................................... 168 11.11.3 Barcode Reader and Leveler Laser Forecast ................................................................... 168

11.12 Sensor and Instrumentation Laser Summary ............................................................... 169 Chapter 12: Displays ......................................................................................................................... 172

12.1 Highlights ....................................................................................................................... 172 12.2 Background .................................................................................................................... 173 12.3 Pico Projectors ................................................................................................................ 173

12.3.1 Types of Pico Projectors.............................................................................................. 174 12.3.2 Problems with Laser Pico Projectors.............................................................................. 175 12.3.3 The Future of Laser Pico Projectors .............................................................................. 175

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12.3.4 Laser Pico Projector Manufacturers ............................................................................... 175 12.4 Office/Home Theater Projectors ......................................................................................... 176

12.4.1 Hybrid LED-Laser Projectors ........................................................................................ 177 12.4.2 Laser Based Projection TVs & Projectors ....................................................................... 177

12.5 Digital Cinema Laser Lighting ............................................................................................ 179 12.5.1 The Movie Industry .................................................................................................... 179 12.5.2 Type of Laser Cinema ................................................................................................. 180 12.5.3 Laser Digital Cinema Cost Savings ................................................................................ 181 12.5.4 Better Movie Experience ............................................................................................. 181 12.5.5 Laser Theaters Have Arrived........................................................................................ 181 12.5.6 Laser Cinema Requirements ........................................................................................ 182

12.6 Laser Light Shows ........................................................................................................... 182 12.6.1 Galvanometers and Software ....................................................................................... 183 12.6.2 Laser Light Show Forecast .......................................................................................... 183 12.6.3 Laser Light Show Vendors ........................................................................................... 183 12.6.4 Laser Light Show Laser Suppliers ................................................................................. 184

12.7 Laser Pointers ................................................................................................................. 184 12.7.1 Laser Pointer Problems ............................................................................................... 184 12.7.2 Laser Pointer Forecast ................................................................................................ 184

12.8 Laser Christmas Lights ..................................................................................................... 185 12.9 Other Display Applications ................................................................................................ 185 12.10 Laser Forecasts ...................................................................................................... 186

Chapter 13: Data Storage ................................................................................................................. 189 13.1 Highlights ....................................................................................................................... 189 13.2 Optical Storage ............................................................................................................... 190 13.3 Laser Magnetic Storage .................................................................................................... 191

13.3.1 Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording ................................................................................ 192 13.3.2 Requirements on Lasers for Magnetic Storage ................................................................ 192 13.3.3 Forecast for Diode Lasers for HAMR.............................................................................. 192 13.3.4 Microwave-assisted magnetic recording technology......................................................... 193

13.4 Optical Storage Laser Forecast ..................................................................................... 193 13.5 The Future ................................................................................................................... 196

Chapter 14: Communications ........................................................................................................... 198 14.1 Highlights ....................................................................................................................... 198 14.2 Technology and Application Trends .................................................................................... 199 14.3 Industry Challenges ......................................................................................................... 200 14.4 Communications Methodology ........................................................................................... 202 14.5 Market Forecast .............................................................................................................. 203

14.5.1 Optical Transceivers ................................................................................................... 203 14.5.2 Pump Lasers for Optical Amplifiers ............................................................................... 205 14.5.3 Total Telecom Lasers ................................................................................................. 207

14.6 Communication Laser Suppliers ......................................................................................... 208 14.6.1 Transceiver Suppliers ................................................................................................. 208

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14.6.2 Optical Amplifier Suppliers........................................................................................... 209 Chapter 15: Suppliers & Market Shares ........................................................................................... 210

15.1 Highlights ....................................................................................................................... 210 15.2 The Global Economic Climate ............................................................................................ 210 15.3 Summary by Sector ......................................................................................................... 210

15.3.1 Regional Distribution of Laser Revenue for Industrial Lasers ............................................. 211

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List of Figures

Figure 1.1 Historic Worldwide Laser Revenue 1972 - 2019 ............................................................. 15 Figure 1.2 Laser Revenue Segmentation by Application for 2019 .................................................... 17 Figure 1.3 Laser Revenue Forecast by Segment 2019-2025 (US$M) ................................................ 18 Figure 1.4 Laser Revenue Segmentation by Laser Type for 2019 .................................................... 21 Figure 1.5 Relative Laser Revenue Growth Rate by Laser Type (% increase) .................................... 22 Figure 1.6 Geographic Distribution of Industrial Laser Consumption 2019 ........................................ 23 Figure 1.7 Total Laser Market (US$M) ......................................................................................... 23 Figure 3.1 Industrial kW+ Laser Revenue Forecast Chart by Process (US$M) .................................... 54 Figure 3.2 Industrial kW+ Laser Revenue Forecast Chart by Laser Type (US$M) ............................... 56 Figure 4.1 Micro Materials Laser Revenue by Application (US$M) .................................................... 67 Figure 4.2 Micro Materials Laser Revenue by Laser Type (US$M) .................................................... 68 Figure 5.1 Laser Marked Egg ..................................................................................................... 70 Figure 5.2 Laser Marking Laser Forecast by Laser Type (US$M) ...................................................... 72 Figure 7.1 Forecast of Diode for Printing Revenue (US$M) ............................................................. 82 Figure 8.1 LASIK Procedures Performed in the U.S. & Europe (x1000) ............................................. 92 Figure 8.2 Laser Cataract Surgery Systems .................................................................................. 93 Figure 8.3 Medical Laser Revenue by Laser Type (US$M) ............................................................ 102 Figure 9.1 Military Lasers by Laser Type (US$M) ........................................................................ 126 Figure 10.1 R&D Laser Revenue by Laser Type (US$M)................................................................. 133 Figure 11.1 Fiber Sensor Applications ......................................................................................... 143 Figure 11.2 Cora 100 Handheld Raman Spectrometer ................................................................... 149 Figure 11.3 CW and Ultrafast Laser Forecast for Spectroscopy (US$M) ............................................ 150 Figure 11.4 Mid-IR Laser Forecast for Spectroscopy (US$M) .......................................................... 157 Figure 11.5 Total Sensor & Instrumentation Laser Revenue by Application (US$M) ........................... 170 Figure 11.6 Total Sensor and Instrumentation Laser Revenue by Laser Type (US$M) ........................ 171 Figure 12.1 MicroVision Laser Pico Projector & Scanner ................................................................. 174 Figure 12.2 Optima Cinemax P1 Short-throw Laser Projector ......................................................... 178 Figure 12.3 LG HF85LA Laser Projector ....................................................................................... 179 Figure 12.4 Example of Laser Christmas Lights ............................................................................ 185 Figure 12.5 Laser Revenue for Cinema Projection (US$M) ............................................................. 187 Figure 12.6 Laser Display Revenue by Application (US$M) ............................................................. 188 Figure 13.1 Optical Storage Laser Revenue by Wavelength ............................................................ 196 Figure 14.1 Optical Transceiver Revenue by Type (US$M) ............................................................. 204 Figure 14.2 Optical Amplifier Pump Laser Revenue (US$M) ............................................................ 207 Figure 15.1 U.S. GDP Growth by Quarter 2016 – 2019 (% change)................................................. 210 Figure 15.2 Industrial Laser Regional Distribution of Revenue for 2019 ........................................... 212

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List of Tables

Table 1.1 Laser Revenue Forecast by Market Segment (US$M) ...................................................... 16 Table 1.2 Total Laser Revenue by Laser Type (US$M) .................................................................. 22 Table 2.1 Total Laser Revenue by Laser Type (US$M) .................................................................. 26 Table 2.2 Types of Commercial CO2 Lasers ................................................................................. 32 Table 3.1 Industrial kW+ Laser Unit Forecast by Process (Units) ................................................... 53 Table 3.2 Industrial kW+ Laser ASP Forecast by Process (US$) ..................................................... 53 Table 3.3 Industrial kW+ Laser Revenue Forecast by Process (US$M) ............................................ 54 Table 3.4 Industrial kW+ Laser Unit Forecast by Laser Type (Units) ............................................... 55 Table 3.5 Industrial kW+ Laser ASP Forecast by Laser Type (US$) ................................................ 55 Table 3.6 Industrial kW+ Laser Revenue Forecast by Laser Type (US$M)........................................ 55 Table 3.7 kW+ Fiber Laser Breakout by Application (US$M) .......................................................... 58 Table 3.8 kW+ Fiber Laser Metal Cutting Breakout (US$M) ........................................................... 58 Table 3.9 kW+ Fiber Laser Welding Breakout (US$M) .................................................................. 58 Table 4.1 Summary of Major Materials Processing Segments ......................................................... 61 Table 4.2 Micro Material Lasers by Application (Units) .................................................................. 65 Table 4.3 Micro Materials Laser ASPs by Application (US$) ............................................................ 66 Table 4.4 Micro Materials Laser Revenue by Application (US$M) .................................................... 66 Table 4.5 Micro Materials Lasers by Laser Type (Units) ................................................................ 67 Table 4.6 Micro Materials Laser ASPs by Laser Type (US$) ............................................................ 67 Table 4.7 Micro Materials Laser Revenues by Laser Types (US$M) ................................................. 68 Table 5.1 Laser Marking Laser Unit Forecast by Laser Type (Units) ................................................ 71 Table 5.2 Laser Marking Laser ASP Forecast by Laser Type (US$) .................................................. 71 Table 5.3 Laser Marking Laser Revenue Forecast by Laser Type (US$M) ......................................... 71 Table 6.1 UV, DUV, and EUV Technology Table ........................................................................... 75 Table 6.2 Photolithography Lasers and Service Revenue (Units and US$M) ..................................... 77 Table 6.3 DUV vs. EUV Revenue (US$M) .................................................................................... 77 Table 7.1 Key Printing Technologies .......................................................................................... 79 Table 7.2 Forecast of Diode Lasers for Printing (Units) ................................................................. 81 Table 7.3 Forecast of Diode Laser ASP for Printing (US$).............................................................. 81 Table 7.4 Forecast of Diode Lasers for Printing Revenue (US$M) ................................................... 81 Table 8.1 Laser-based Dermatology and Cosmetic System Vendors ................................................ 90 Table 8.2 Laser-based Ophthalmic System Vendors ..................................................................... 94 Table 8.3 Laser-Based Surgical System Vendors .......................................................................... 97 Table 8.4 Mid-IR Surgical System Vendors ................................................................................. 97 Table 8.5 Dental Laser System Vendors ..................................................................................... 99 Table 8.6 Map of Laser Types by Medical Application ................................................................... 99 Table 8.7 Medical Laser Unit Sales by Application (Units) ............................................................ 100 Table 8.8 Medical Laser ASP by Application (US$) ..................................................................... 100 Table 8.9 Medical Laser Revenue by Application (US$M) ............................................................ 101 Table 8.10 Medical Laser Unit Sales by Laser Type (Units) ............................................................ 101 Table 8.11 Medical Laser ASP by Laser Type (US$) ..................................................................... 101 Table 8.12 Medical Laser Revenue by Laser Type (US$M) ............................................................ 102 Table 9.1 IRCM Requirements ................................................................................................ 115

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Table 9.2 Forecast for Laser Sales for IRCM Systems (Units, US$, and US$M) ............................... 118 Table 9.3 Military Laser Unit Sales by Application (Units) ............................................................ 124 Table 9.4 Military Laser ASP by Application (US$) ...................................................................... 124 Table 9.5 Military Laser Revenue by Application (US$M) ............................................................. 125 Table 9.6 Military Lasers by Laser Type (Units, and US$M) ......................................................... 125 Table 9.7 Military Suppliers and Contractors ............................................................................. 128 Table 10.1 R&D Laser Sales by Laser Type (Units) ...................................................................... 131 Table 10.2 R&D Average Laser ASP Used by Laser Type (US$)...................................................... 131 Table 10.3 R&D Laser Revenue by Laser Type (US$M)................................................................. 132 Table 11.1 Light Sources for Fiber Sensors ................................................................................. 139 Table 11.2 Narrowband Lasers for Fiber Sensors (US$M) ............................................................. 142 Table 11.3 Fiber Sensor Laser Suppliers..................................................................................... 143 Table 11.4 Fiber Sensor Suppliers ............................................................................................. 144 Table 11.5 Forecast for Lasers Used in Telecom Instrumentation (Units) ........................................ 145 Table 11.6 CW and Ultrafast Laser Forecast for Spectroscopy (US$M) ............................................ 150 Table 11.7 Mid-IR Laser Forecast for Spectroscopy (US$M) .......................................................... 156 Table 11.8 Lasers Used for Wafer and Mask Inspection ................................................................ 159 Table 11.9 Forecast of UV Laser Sales Semiconductor Inspection .................................................. 160 Table 11.10 Flow Cytometry Laser Revenue (US$M)...................................................................... 162 Table 11.11 LIDAR Laser Revenue (US$M) .................................................................................. 166 Table 11.12 Gesture Recognition Laser Revenue (US$M) .............................................................. 168 Table 11.13 Laser Leveler & Barcode Reader Laser Forecast (US$M) ............................................... 168 Table 11.14 Total Sensor & Instrumentation Laser Revenue Summary by Application ......................... 169 Table 11.15 Total Sensor and Instrumentation Laser Revenue by Laser type (US$M) ......................... 170 Table 12.1 Display Laser Brightness and Power .......................................................................... 186 Table 12.2 Laser Display Revenue by Application (US$M) ............................................................. 187 Table 12.3 Laser Display Revenue by Laser Type (US$M) ............................................................. 188 Table 13.1 Optical and Magnetic Storage Types .......................................................................... 191 Table 13.2 Magnetic and Optical Storage Devices (M units) .......................................................... 194 Table 13.3 Optical Storage Laser Forecast (M units, US$, US$M) ................................................... 195 Table 14.1 Optical Transceiver Revenue by Type (US$M) ............................................................. 204 Table 14.2 Optical Amplifier Pump Laser Revenue (US$M) ............................................................ 206 Table 14.3 Total Semiconductor Lasers Used in Communications (M units) ..................................... 207 Table 14.4 Total Communications Laser Revenue (US$M) ............................................................ 208 Table 15.1 Laser Revenue Totals by Sector (US$M) ..................................................................... 211 Table 15.2 Laser Industry by Country ........................................................................................ 213

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Chapter 1: Executive Summary & Totals 1.1 The Overall Laser Market

This report attempts to cover the entire laser market, worldwide. With each issue of this report, we encompass more and more of the expanding laser market. In this report, we add more detailed coverage of laser cinema. In some of the other segments, we haven’t added coverage, but rather we have broken down some sub-categories into finer granularity. We like to think we have it all covered, but the reality is the laser market is so wide and diverse that it is difficult to know if everything is included in the analysis. As if attempting to cover the entire industry isn’t hard enough, knowing exactly which category to place each application can be even more difficult. If you are looking for a segmentation that isn’t covered in this report, please contact the author, as we may have it, but if not, we could work to include it in a future report.

1.2 First there was 2017 Looking back to 2017, this was one of the best laser years of all-time. In materials processing, not only did lasers have a strong year overall, but in many areas, laser cutting and welding displaced non-laser cutting and welding in large numbers. Since lasers are not devices that constantly wear-out and need to be replaced, growth from replacement laser purchases is rather limited, but lasers for uses that hadn’t formerly used lasers is very encouraging. In segments other than material processing, there were very good results as well. Apple and other smartphone manufacturers are using lasers for sensing in new and novel ways. These sensors include measuring distances for camera autofocus, measuring object distance for virtual reality applications, and measuring multiple distance points as Apple does for its “Face ID” feature. In addition to laser sensors in phones, LIDAR sensors for self-driving automobiles are becoming increasingly important. A third strong area in 2017 was lasers used to anneal amorphous silicon into polycrystalline silicon for OLD screens for smartphones. While larger OLD screens for TV generally don’t require this step, high-density OLD screens like those used for smartphones do require this step, and excimer lasers are the most cost-effective method in doing it. Once Apple decided to produce the OLD iPhone X in 2017, sales of excimer lasers for annealing have rapidly increased. With Coherent being the only manufacturer of these (although it’s rumored that Gigaphon will be entering the business as well), volume has been brisk and Coherent has increased production capacity as much as possible.

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The typical 10.6-micron operating wavelength means that a diffraction-limited spot is ten times larger than for lasers operating at 1 micron. This excludes CO2 lasers from applications requiring the greatest power density or the smallest spot size. Kilowatt CO2 lasers can require expensive assist gases, particularly helium assist gas for welding. CO2 lasers can also require cleaning and replacement of expensive exotic optical materials. Finally, CO2 lasers are not usually designed with fiber delivery. Specialty fibers and glass capillaries can be used to deliver power from CO2 lasers to a work area. Hollow silica capillaries can deliver up to 1.6 kW of CW power with no reflection from the ends of the capillaries, but there are limitations. For example, bend losses are relatively high in the capillaries. In addition (like solid-state lasers), the light has to be coupled into the fiber, with some loss of efficiency. Other than CO2 lasers for material processing, there are precision CO2 lasers for spectroscopy and other scientific applications. These lasers are RF excited, and typically have peak powers up to around 120W.

2.2.10 Excimer Lasers Excimer lasers are used in applications requiring high pulse powers at UV wavelengths. Unlike longer-wavelength processes that impart energy to achieve a thermal reaction, an excimer process is nonthermal. Instead, it ablates material by breaking molecular bonds, releasing the molecule without heating, and damaging the surrounding material. Excimer lasers can be used for some marking applications, such as in thin films and plastics, and for high-precision microfabrication. Excimer lasers are important in semiconductor photolithography because they can provide uniform power over a large area, but they are also very expensive to purchase and to operate. In photolithography, extreme UV light sources are starting to replace excimer laser light sources, but excimer lasers for photolithography will be with us for a long time to come. Extreme UV light sources usually use a very high-power CO2 laser to atomize tin droplets and produce extreme UV light. Recently, Excimer lasers have been doing quite well in the area of producing OLED displays for smartphones. To produce these displays Amorphous silicon on glass needs to be converted to Polycrystalline silicon. This process typically takes a high-power 308nm excimer laser and recently, demand for these lasers has exceeded supply, especially in light of Apple rolling-out their OLED iPhone XS and XS Max, in addition to the iPhone X. Coherent has been the sole source of these lasers.

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But the economy and tariffs may not even be the worst of it. At this writing, the COVID-19 virus was spreading around the world, especially in China. Many factories have closed, people have been confined to their houses, and exports out of China have slowed to a trickle. We have made some adjustments to our forecasts for the virus, but as of this writing, the full effect is far from being known. Forecasting the effects of tariffs and economic slowdowns is difficult enough, but forecasting the effect of the COVID-19, is a bit impossible. Up until recently, the U.S. stock market was indicating that the virus will be quick, and when it’s over, things will get back to normal. In the last week (as of this writing), the U.S. stock market dropped close to 5.5%, indicating that things may be worse than first thought. The latest GDP growth forecast for 2020 from the IMF was 5.6%, down from 5.9% in 2019. In the U.S., Goldman Sacks cut their GDP growth forecast for 2020 for the U.S. to 1.2% from originally 2.2%. The full effect of the COVID-19 outbreak won’t be known until it’s over, and we can look back and fully evaluate it.

3.6.1 KiloWatt+ Industrial Laser Forecast by Process Application 2019 - 2025 The tables and chart below represent our forecasts for industrial kW+ lasers by process application. The first table contains the unit forecast, the next contains the average selling price (ASP) forecasts used to drive the revenue forecasts, and the final chart is the revenue forecast itself.

Table 3.1 Industrial kW+ Laser Unit Forecast by Process (Units)

Table 3.2 Industrial kW+ Laser ASP Forecast by Process (US$)

Units CAGR2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 '20 - '25

Metal Cutting 28,193 28,567 30,927 33,056 35,272 37,670 41,939 8.0%y-to-y 1% 8% 7% 7% 7% 11%

Metal Welding/Brazing 9,950 10,617 11,448 12,186 12,951 13,775 15,336 7.6%y-to-y 7% 8% 6% 6% 6% 11%

Additive/Cladding/Other 3,317 3,454 3,785 4,095 4,422 4,779 5,321 9.0%y-to-y 4% 10% 8% 8% 8% 11%

Total 41,460 42,637 46,160 49,338 52,645 56,223 62,596 8.0%y-to-y 2.8% 8.3% 6.9% 6.7% 6.8% 11.3%

Source: Strategies Unlimited

Average Price CAGR(US$) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 '20 - '25

Metal Cutting $72,460 $73,551 $71,907 $69,613 $68,472 $68,065 $64,289 -2.7%y-to-y -3% -3% -3% 97% 197% 297%

Metal Welding/Brazing $71,698 $65,878 $61,629 $63,472 $62,773 $59,460 $56,162 -3.1%y-to-y -8% -6% 3% -1% -5% -6%

Additive/Cladding/Other $32,825 $32,908 $34,036 $36,203 $36,001 $37,258 $35,191 1.4%y-to-y 0% 3% 6% -1% 3% -6%

Average $69,106 $68,348 $66,452 $65,323 $64,342 $63,338 $59,824 -2.6%y-to-y -1.1% -2.8% -1.7% -1.5% -1.6% -5.5%

Source: Strategies Unlimited

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Previously, EUV was to be used on 13.5nm and 10nm processes, but the delays in getting EUV up to speed have forced semiconductor companies to find alternatives. Intel, for one, now says it will use EUV only for 6.5nm and below, and it will use some new methods for 10nm and 13.5nm.

Table 6.1 UV, DUV, and EUV Technology Table

So, what does all this mean for lasers? First, excimer lasers used for DUV will likely be with us for many years to come, and in fact, revenue from them grew in 2019. Even when EUV finally becomes more common, indications are it will buck the trend of decreasing prices with increasing densities. This may mean that EUV will be mainly used for very high densities where it is required, and DUV will be used for all other applications. Typically, a EUV setup uses two CO2 lasers, a very large 25-35KW CO2 laser, and a smaller high-stability CO2 laser, and these lasers can only be manufactured by a few companies. Trumpf has been producing many of these CO2 lasers, and recently committed to building a 70M € facility in Germany to produce these lasers. Access Laser, who produced the small stable CO2 laser EUV uses was acquired 85% by Trumpf in 2017.

6.3 3D Packaging Smaller and smaller semiconductor process technology aims to squeeze more electronics in a smaller area. Semiconductors have a general fixed price for a certain amount of silicon area, so by making the process technology smaller, you can increase the complexity, drive down the cost, or both. But what if, instead of making process technology smaller, you just stacked layer after layer of silicon like a high-rise building? Lasers have been used to drill via holes for this purpose, although the preferred solution is to dry etch the holes patterned with lithography. We count laser via hole drilling with micro materials processing, but it is helpful to consider that this can be viewed as an extension of chip integration.

Wavelength (nm) Optical Source

Minimum DRAM ½

Pitch (nm)

Year of First High-Volume

Manufacturing

UV 365 UV i-line Hg lamp 280 1990Deep UV 248 KrF laser 90 1996Deep UV 193 ArF laser 60 2003Deep UV 193 ArF laser (Immersion) 35 2006

Deep UV 193 ArF laser (Immersion DPT) 20 2009

Vacuum UV 157 F2 laser -- CanceledExtreme UV 13.5 CO2 laser (LPP) 22, 16 2019

Source: Strategies Unlimited

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Figure 8.2 Laser Cataract Surgery Systems

Source: Alcon LenSx

One large impediment to lasers for this application is cheaper alternatives. This procedure can be performed by a skilled surgeon with a scalpel or with a laser. While there are pros and cons to both methods, perhaps the largest negative to using a laser is cost, which isn’t reimbursed by many insurance companies. For this reason, doctors using lasers usually have to charge patients extra to make up for this cost, but there is a problem with that as well. Medicare doesn’t allow such extra charges, and many patients having cataract surgery are on Medicare. Finally, there is much debate on exactly if laser cataract surgery is even better than conventional scalpel surgery. There is no clear-cut answer with doctors usually arguing for the type that they perform. Some doctors only perform laser surgery, others only perform conventional surgery, and still others perform both on a case-by-case basis. Cataract lasers can cost well over $800,000 each so it’s not a small investment.

8.4.3 Glaucoma Treatment There are several other procedures that use lasers. Argon Laser Trabeculoplasty (ALT) and Selective Laser Trabeculoplasty (SLT) use green argon lasers for glaucoma treatment. They are used to open up the drainage angle of the eye, allowing fluid easier flow and relieving pressure in the eye.

8.4.4 Ophthalmic System Vendors The following companies produce ophthalmic laser systems. As with most of the other medical systems vendors, most of these companies don’t make the lasers that go into their systems, but a few of them do.

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9.4.6 IRCM Forecasts We estimate that the laser-based IRCM laser revenue to be roughly $124.6 million per year in 2019 and growing. This revenue comes from both U.S. and foreign government R&D and procurement budgets. On January 2011, Northrop Grumman announced that they had shipped its 2000th Viper IRCM system. By today, this number likely exceeds 9000 systems. We have estimated a run rate of about 700-800 systems per year through government customers, although the shipments are not uniform from year to year. Northrop’s own deliveries now amount to about 500 systems per year, and the deliveries of Viper laser subsystems may be twice that. Orders through other suppliers (such as from Elbit Systems), including sales to commercial and private customers (such as Federal Express or VIPs), raise the total, as do increased military orders in Israel, China, and Russia. The potential market is much greater, as a substitute for flare-based and nonlaser-based countermeasure systems, as well as for mounting on aircraft that is currently unprotected. The U.S. Air Force has thousands of aircraft, with the IRCM adding only a small fraction to the capital cost of each to protect an expensive asset. The adoption of laser-based IRCM systems has been greatly increasing, indicating that their worth is proven. Some recent large orders have pushed numbers higher in the 1000 to 1200 range. If the prices come down significantly, the volume could increase even more. We estimate the value of the laser in the countermeasure system to be about 20% of the value of the overall system. Moreover, the lasers are highly sophisticated and custom-made. We estimate here a “fair value” price of about $180,000, but dropping. (Such a source produces three wavelengths, amounting to about $60,000 per wavelength.) The average price is somewhat artificial, since so much of the manufacturing today is captive to the system integrator, or done on a contract basis that includes substantial engineering costs. We expect only a slight decline in the unit price as the technology becomes more proven and as new technology is adopted, especially QC laser-based systems. Through the forecast period, we expect solid-state lasers (with OPO conversion) to dominate this business, although Tm-doped fiber lasers (with OPO conversion) are also appearing in designs. QC lasers are also becoming competitive as the suppliers demonstrate sufficient beam quality, reliability, superior cost, and efficiency. As stated above, a QCL-based system has been selected by the U.S. military, and a few others and are expected to become quite popular for smaller aircraft.