Think Global, Act Local - The Hugo Group...Think Global, Act Local PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL|BNZ...

Think Global, Act Local

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS

Craig Ebert – Senior EconomistJanuary 2019

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Global Issues/Risks

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• Global economy – slowdown (recession?)• Inverted yield curves• A correction in (equity) markets• US economy coming off a solid 2018 (Fed pause)• China slowing further (as intended?)• BREXIT – political quagmire with economic

consequences• Australian economy not so strong

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Flagging Rather Than Faltering

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Just A Healthy Correction?

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New Zealand Economy

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• A sense of resilience• Policy change important to keep monitoring• Government (industrial policy?)• RBNZ (Phase1, Phase2, bank capital proposals)• NZIER’s QSBO weak only in confidence• Capacity constraints still to the fore• Rates and NZD awaiting direction

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Confidence Still (A Bit) Below Par

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But Activity Indicators Not Too Bad

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Employing and Investing

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Knee-Deep in Capacity Constraints

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Pressure on Costs (Profits)

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Rate Cuts?

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A Broadly Robust Currency

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Disclaimer

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