Today’s presentation will include:

Rural schools data and resource project

Main Goal:

To provide rural districts in NYS an integrated resource for informed decision-making

Today’s presentation will include:• What already exists:– Brief overview of 3 broad data resources for

communities and school districts:• PAD (Cornell Program on Applied Demographics)• American Factfinder (US Census data)• NCES (Census, Financial, and Administrative data)

• What we hope to develop:– An integrated data base which includes enrollment

trends, projections, community and regional demographics, financial and administrative data

• Feedback from you– What would be most helpful?– What data do you need?– What is the best way for us to provide access, display,

and help in interpreting data?

http://pad.human.cornell.edu/

PAD Data

PAD Data - Profiles

Options:Population and housing

Population - components of changeHousing Units - Components of Change

Labor Statistics

Options:Demographic

SocialEconomicHousing

• VIEW– http://www.cardi.cornell.edu

• Census – American Factfinder– http://www.census.gov

• NCES– http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/sdds/

VIEW

U.S. Census (www.census.gov) American Factfinder

Factfinder

NCES – enrollment, financial & administrative data for school districts

Next step:

• Development of an integrated data resource for the Center for Rural Schools.

PAD Data - Maps

NY – Population and Housing

NY State growth

NY Population – Components of change

PAD data - Projections

NY – population pyramids

Age-specific net migration rates: What do they tell us?

• How is the population changing (net of births and deaths)?

• How does this vary among the different age groups?

• How does this vary for different states and counties?

New York State

Compare to Florida

Compare to California

Sullivan County

Sullivan County

Sullivan County

Sullivan County - projections

Sullivan County - projections

1990 2000 2035

Sullivan County – ACS Demographic

County-level age specific net migration

Sullivan County, NYS

Compare to Tompkins County, NYS (where Cornell is)

Compare to Hamilton County, NYS (>% elderly)

Fallsburg School District

• Case study illustrating what information is available that may be useful to you.

Fallsburg – historic enrollment

Fallsburg – enrollment by grade

Enrollment PROJECTIONS:the next step

• General Methods and Data:

– Grade-progression ratios (cohort survival)• Enrollment data by grade by year, 10 year history• Birth data

– Housing unit method• Number of housing units• Students per housing unit• Planned development added to housing inventory annually

Grade-progression ratios:measures the net effect of in- and out-migration, transfers to and from private schools, students

repeating grades, drop-outs, etc. *Unique for each district, grade, and year*

YEAR CHANGES B:K K:1 1:2 2:3 3:4 4:5 5:6 6:7 7:8 8:9 9:10 10:11 11:12

98-99/99-00 0.797 1.007 0.943 0.982 1.033 1.037 0.892 0.975 0.948 0.947 0.995 0.969 0.98399-00/00-01 0.848 0.954 0.942 0.976 0.989 0.953 0.912 0.997 1.000 1.009 0.975 0.998 0.90200-01/01-02 0.923 0.949 0.936 0.990 0.979 0.941 0.982 0.993 1.035 1.114 1.027 0.960 0.94601-02/02-03 1.029 0.958 1.003 1.007 1.002 1.058 1.005 1.011 0.903 1.123 0.868 0.932 0.93802-03/03-04 0.951 1.005 0.959 1.003 1.029 0.988 0.919 0.935 0.998 1.108 0.851 1.042 0.85903-04/04-05 1.088 0.951 0.958 0.979 0.977 0.915 0.957 1.002 1.010 1.104 0.983 0.940 0.859

Average 0.910 0.971 0.948 0.989 1.002 0.980 0.955 0.996 0.998 1.092 0.995 0.960 0.901

Last 5 Year Trend 0.968 0.964 0.959 0.991 0.995 0.971 0.955 0.988 0.989 1.092 0.941 0.974 0.901

Last 2 Year "trend" 1.020 0.978 0.958 0.991 1.003 0.951 0.938 0.969 1.004 1.106 0.917 0.991 0.859

Last Year Pattern 1.088 0.951 0.958 0.979 0.977 0.915 0.957 1.002 1.010 1.104 0.983 0.940 0.859

Another way to display progression ratios:

Projections K-12 (also by grade grouping)

Wrap up

• We would like your feedback on what you have seen so far.

• What would be most helpful to you?• What kind of data do you need to make

informed decisions?• How would you like to access the data? How

would you like it to be displayed? What sort of support from Cornell do you think you would need to interpret and use this data?

Thank You

• Thank you for your help and support in this endeavor.

• If you have further suggestions or questions, here is our contact information:

Program on Applied Demographics Group

Joe D. FrancisDirector of Program on

Applied Demographics2nd Floor Beebe HallCornell UniversityIthaca, NY 14853(607) 255-6042jdf2@cornell.edu

Jan VinkResearch Support SpecialistProgram on Applied

Demographics2nd Floor Beebe HallCornell UniversityIthaca, NY 14853

(607) 255-8399jkv3@cornell .edu

CaRDI GroupRobin BlakelyExtension AssociateCommunity & Rural

Development InstituteCornell UniversityIthaca, NY 14853

(607) 254-6795rmb18@cornell.edu

David KayExtension AssociateCommunity & Rural

Development InstituteCornell UniversityIthaca, NY 14853

(607) 255-2123dlk2@cornell.edu