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TOPIC

Brian Hastie

Electrification Project Lead &

Dealer Network Director

JAGUAR LAND ROVER SOUTH AFRICA

Electric Vehicles:

Are we ready?

• Global growth

• EV Progress in South

African

• Challenges

• Outlook

GLOBAL GROWTH OF EV’S

BEV

• Battery Electric Vehicle

• Fully electric

PHEV

• Plug-in Hybrid Electric

Vehicle

• Partial electric

MHEV

• Mild Hybrid Electric

Vehicle

Exponential

growth of EV’s

EV’s have

Global take-up

“Toyota will stop selling diesel passenger cars in

all European markets by the end of this year”

“Nissan is the latest carmaker to shun diesel and

will prepare to phase the fuel type from its

passenger car line-ups over the coming years”

“Fiat Chrysler - which owns Jeep, Maserati and

Alfa Romeo - has already confirmed it will cease

production in 2022”

“Last month Porsche axed production of all diesel

cars claiming there had been a ‘major cultural shift'

in the market”

Catalyst for EV relevance: Demonisation of Diesel

Switch to Electric now has critical mass

Future growth

of EV’s

Brand ModelBattery

(kWh)Price Units/Year

1 Tesla Model 3 50-75 €37k — €80k* 120,000

2 Nissan Leaf E-Plus 60 € 37,000* 80,000

3 Renault Zoe (next gen) 50? € 27,000* 60,000

4 BMW i3 42 € 48,000* 40,000

5 Hyundai Kona EV 64 € 40,000* 40,000

6 Audi e-tron quattro 95 € 85,000 30,000

7 Kia e-Niro 39-64 € 40,000* 30,000

8 Jaguar I-PACE 90 € 80,000 25,000

9 Hyundai Ioniq 39 € 34,000* 20,000

10 VW ID Neo 48 € 30,000* 20,000

11 Kia Soul EV 39-64 € 40,000* 20,000

12 Mini Electric 42 € 35,000* 20,000

13 Mercedes EQC 80 € 70,000* 15,000

14 VW e-Up! 37 € 21,000* 12,000

15 Porsche Taycan 90 $ 90,000 10,000

16 Skoda e-Citigo 37 € 19,000* 8,000

17 Peugeot 208 60 € 30,000* 8,000

18 Seat e-Mii 37 € 20,000* 6,000

19 Opel / Vauxhall Corsa 60 € 30,000* 5,000

20 DS DS3 Crossback 50 € 35,000* 4,000

21 Peugeot 2008 60 € 35,000* 2,000

>20 EV models to launch in Europe

in 2019

Shift from “Compliance cars” to

Electric cars that deliver and

compete against ICE

SOUTH AFRICAN EV PROGRESS

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EV PHEV MHEV

Toyota Prius MHEV

from 2005

Toyota & Lexus MHEV

from 2008

BMW, Mercedes, Porsche Hybrid models from 2008

Nissan LeafBEV

from 2013

BMW i8 and i3PHEV & EVfrom 2015

Volvo XC90 PHEV from 2016

92

295

147

MHEV = 551PHEV = 81

2072

1155

270

891

Honda MHEVFrom 2010

Model Availability:

• Limited choice

• Pricing (no benefit in

purchase price), partly due

to Duty Rate

Public Charging:

• No convenient public fast

charging available

• 1st generation product limited

by RANGE 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Plug-in EV's

BMW NISSAN MERCEDES VOLVO

Brand ModelBattery

(kWh)Price Units/Year

1 Tesla Model 3 50-75 €37k — €80k* 120,000

2 Nissan Leaf E-Plus 60 € 37,000* 80,000

3 Renault Zoe (next gen) 50? € 27,000* 60,000

4 BMW i3 42 € 48,000* 40,000

5 Hyundai Kona EV 64 € 40,000* 40,000

6 Audi e-tron quattro 95 € 85,000 30,000

7 Kia e-Niro 39-64 € 40,000* 30,000

8 Jaguar I-PACE 90 € 80,000 25,000

9 Hyundai Ioniq 39 € 34,000* 20,000

10 VW ID Neo 48 € 30,000* 20,000

11 Kia Soul EV 39-64 € 40,000* 20,000

12 Mini Electric 42 € 35,000* 20,000

13 Mercedes EQC 80 € 70,000* 15,000

14 VW e-Up! 37 € 21,000* 12,000

15 Porsche Taycan 90 $ 90,000 10,000

16 Skoda e-Citigo 37 € 19,000* 8,000

17 Peugeot 208 60 € 30,000* 8,000

18 Seat e-Mii 37 € 20,000* 6,000

19 Opel / Vauxhall Corsa 60 € 30,000* 5,000

20 DS DS3 Crossback 50 € 35,000* 4,000

21 Peugeot 2008 60 € 35,000* 2,000

a)

Slow uptake by South African

Subsidiaries

b)

General lack of understanding

of the EV reality – consumers

don’t know what they’re missing

out on!

EV’s are great cars….

• Performance

• Comfort

• Economy

1%

25%

37%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Diesel engine share of LAMBP’s Volume

Analogy to EV introduction -

growth of diesel power in the luxury

segment in SA:

• Initial slow start

• Then new technology with

enhanced performance launched

• Performance and economy drives

popularity

LIVING WITH AN EV

Home

Work

Out & About

Longer Trips

Long Trips

Overnight charging

Home installed

Charger

(SLOW charging)

$

Charging at work

Office Park, Factory

(SLOW / FAST charging)

$ / $$ Convenient Locations

Shopping Centre, Station

(SLOW / FAST charging)

$$ / $$$$

Highway Stopover

N1, N2, N3 etc.

(FAST charging)

$$ / $$$$

30 Shopping CentresProvide “out & about” convenience

22 Highway StopoversMake long trips possible

+

Polokwane

To

Cape Town

Pretoria

To

Durban

Garden

Route

Gauteng and

Surrounds

(West / North

/ East)

Jaguar POWERWAY,

in partnership with

The load shedding issue:

• Make use of the schedules

• Overnight charging – low impact of load

shedding

• Public charging – generator backup

THE CHALLENGES

Price of EV Products:

• Import Duties: 7%

higher that ICE (Europe

only)

• Lack of Incentives

• Reduced Duty rates could be

recovered via increased sales volume

• Incentives could be recovered via

VAT on EV necessities – chargers,

training etc

Challenges

Cost of selling & servicing

EV Products:

• Tooling & Equipment

• Competency:

Technicians & Sales

Teams

• Initial costs for EV capability are

prohibitive for Retailers

• Competency is onerous, staff

retention challenges

Challenges

Training

Technician safety for high

voltage working

Sales person knowledge of EV to properly help buyers make the

right choice

Equipment

Special tooling for EV

Charging Equipment

Extended Aftersales Support

Panelshop & Roadside

Assistance –Special handling

Battery

Second Use

& Recycling

R360 mil for Equipment and

Training

• Charger Equipment

• Special Tools

• Technician Training

• Sales Training

R600k

per

Dealer

Dealer Network CapabilityPublic Charging

Infrastructure

R 92mil investment in

400 Charging Stations in public

areas

R 300mil spent on

Home Charging units per year

Collective Investment in EV Readiness

Product Cost

Selling Cost

Sceptic Media

Myths

“We’re not ready”

mindset

Challenges

Product Choice

Imported Product Cost

Car Dealer costs & effort to support

EV’s

Product Retail PriceRunning Costs

Public Charging Infrastructure

Home Charging

Confidence in electricity supply

Technology

Taxation model –balancing taxes with potential incentives

Job creation –charger production

& installation

Incentives for Overnight Charging

Current EV Landscape

OUTLOOK

42961

14400

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Most proactive approachForced reactive growthNo Change

• Short term implementation of Vehicle

Pricing incentives

• Adoption of models available globally

• Industry alignment & standardisation

• Steady and viable growth of Public

infrastructure

• Status quo in short to medium term

• Eventually non-EV options run out and

EV’s are adopted in a sudden way

• Chaotic environment created by

unrealistic demands on capability

• Potential lack of standardisation

• Status quo beyond medium term

• Reduced variety & options available to

consumer

• Existing obstacles remain

Standardisation

Key elements for EV success:

Electric Vehicles:

Are we ready?

Q&A