Trading by the Rules - · PDF fileJake Bernstein Trading by the Rules Australia Trading and...

Jake BernsteinTrading by the Rules

Australia Trading and Investing Expohttp://www.adest.com.au

Saturday3 October 2009

OverviewGeneral commentary

Trading Model and TriggersQ & A

If you are using any trading approach that is not 100% objective then you are not likely to succeed

© 2009 by Jake Bernstein

1.300.552.182

Your choices as a trader / investor The hard way or the easy way Believe me now or believe me later The hard way (and it rarely works for most people)Spent hours each trying to figure this all outSpend huge$ on better programs and chartingStudy as many indicators as you canCombine many different time frames in your workAnalyze markets and interpret proper actionsListen to the business news and take it seriouslyPay attention to all government reports and dataStudy fundamentals and evaluate their meaningVisit trading chat rooms on line and embrace the verbal nonsense

and worthless opinions of losersThen wonder why you can’t make money tradingVisit a good psychiatrist when your life is in ruins

The easy way Find patterns that work Verify their validity Use my SETUP TRIGGER FOLLOW THRUTrading modelGet organizedUse specific proceduresNEVER analyze or interpret anythingAvoid non objective inputs (examples)Don’t visit chat rooms and associate with losersKeep it all simple and 100% rule basedDo your best to not care

Introduction and Goals Welcome to Trading Webinar Who am I and what do I do?? My goals for this meeting:1) To share some trading ideas and rules with you that I have

acquired through 41 years of experience in the markets2) To show you the “why” of my trading methods3) To be clear and concise4) To show you several valid patterns5) To mix forecast with methodology and teach you some things6) To dispel market myths7) To show you my essential Trading Model8) To answer as many of your questions as possible

Some preliminaries Why this Webinar? Misinformation and disinformation Who wants you to win in the markets? The psychology of trading “secrets” The dark side of technology Challenge market myths The 5 dirty phrases of trading…”looks like”…”let’s

analyze this”…”could”…”evaluate”…”take a shot at it”

Abandon the ineffective and interpretive Understand the essence and necessity of 100%

objectivity in order to achieve success Discipline, confidence and trading

My tools and methods

1) Cycles (for long term)2) Seasonals (very high accuracy)3) Patterns – the essence of all success4) Timing Triggers and Trading model -

vital5) Ratios and spreads6) All methods that I developed

researched and perfected through my own trading

My Trading Model

SET-UP = high probability patterns

TRIGGER = timing that works

FOLLOW THROUGH = risk management and profit maximizing methods

100% objectivity – no opinions – no interpretation – no “looks like” – no analysis – no lengthy processes – no comparison of time frames – no long list of “if…then”…

My forecasts in 2007-2008The following Webinars were presentedOn the Precipice of Change (Nov 2007)The Coming Commodity Collapse (March 2008)Is this Crash I warned About? (August 2008)The Greatest Commodity Bubble in History (Jan 2008)The Wildest Ride in History (Dec 2007)• The big bull market in currencies vs. US dollar• Top in copper • Top in energies• Top in stocks• Top in commodities• Top in grains• Top in real estate• Yen strongest currency – BrPound weakest• LOWS PROJECTED for 2009 – likely first 3-6 months• NEW inflationary cycle due to money printing• 50-60 year low in interest rates• NEW and record-breaking bull market in commodities to begin by late 2009• Real estate low first half of 2009• Huge recovery in stocks early 2009 through September 2009• A major change in interest rates beginning early 2010…and many more• A major low in natural gas mid to late 2009…and many more

These are the exact charts I showed in early 2007 at my Australia

Seminars

The outcome / the next projection

Now

This is the exact chart I showed in early 2007 at my Australia Seminars

Yen – the outcome

This is the exact chart I showed in early 2007 at my Australia Seminars

Canadian $ Cycle and Projection

BP/US$ cycle follows through

Momentum vs price – normal and then…

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

PMF Setup and Trigger

A

BC

D

A

BC

D

B

A

C

D

S&P bullish weekly set up PMF – March 2009

The result

SPI Now shows weekly divergence on my PMF method

The result

What now? Where Now?

What do you see?

SPI where now?

January effect – Another PatternNote January high and lowWeekly CLOSE above January high: bullishWeekly CLOSE below January low: bearish

January effect

January effect: target hit

January effect: this week

January effect SPI 1993-1996

SPI January effect 1997-2000

SPI January effect 2001-2004

SPI January effect 2005-2009

The outcome SPI

S&P Small Trader Sentiment

DSI rally % projection – when DSI has dropped this low or lower the average recovery has been 26.5%. Projection was 825 S&P minimum…we rallied to here

Current DSI S&P

DSI on CRB in March

CRB last week

CRB Daily – this week still bullish on MD

CRB Now

The Dow Jones Seasonal

How it turned out

SPI Seasonal 2006

SPI seasonal this year

Looking at some results

30 Mar 2007

The result

The outcome

Copper

Copper / Gold proxy FCX

The result

Aussie triggers long

I will be giving Only 2 seminars in Sydney

>> November 4 2009 Trading Mastery Marriott Hotel- click here>>

>> November 5-7 Traders Round Table Quay Grandclick here>>

I will teach you and trade Live.

www.adest.com.au or call David Hunt 1.300.552.182

http://www.adest.com.au

Email david@adest.com.au if you have questions

Best of trading Jake Bernstein

Go to http://www.adest.com.auto get my books or

http://www.invest-store.com/adest