Transportation in the U.S. Critical Infrastructure The Development of a Methodology and Mathematical...

Transportation in the U.S. Critical Infrastructure

The Development of a Methodology and Mathematical Model for Assessing the Impacts of K Links Disconnects have on Defined Links of a Network

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Outline

• Abstract• Systems Engineering Process• Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP): Transportation• Objective• Analysis Process• Research Significance • Resource Allocation• Risk Mitigation• Conclusion

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Abstract

• By viewing the transportation critical infrastructure (CI) as a system-of-systems (SOS) and using a holistic approach coupled with Systems Engineering (SE) methodologies, it is possible to assess the criticality of a highway network based on disconnects within the network

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

The Systems Engineering Process

• Defining the System – System of SystemsAgriculture

Water

Public Health

EmergencyServices

DefenseIndustrial

Base

Telecom.

EnergyTransportation

Government

Chemical andHazMat

Postal andShipping

Banking andFinance

FoodAgriculture

Water

Public Health

EmergencyServices

DefenseIndustrial

Base

Telecom.

EnergyTransportation

Government

Chemical andHazMat

Postal andShipping

Banking andFinance

Food

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

CIP Transportation

The transportation sector of the CI sector is vital to US citizens’ way of life as well as how corporations do business

ENERGY FOOD

COMMUT-ING

TRAVEL

MED. EMG.

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

CIP Transportation

• CI is increasingly becoming more crucial to the US

• Three areas in particular signify its importance

Tonnage

Complexity

Costs

Ris

e in

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

n

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

CIP Transportation

• Rise in Transportation Complexity

Complexity

• Intermodal

• Destinations

• Departures

Components

• Highways

• Airports

• Rail

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Objective

• To measure the criticality of the network based cost and risk given disconnects occurring within the network

• Outcomes– Provide city and government officials a SE

methodology to construct a model for understanding the impact of disconnects in the transportation network

– Help in the decision making process• Cost reduction• Risk mitigation

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Analysis Process

• Model– Highway Network

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Analysis Process

• Mathematical Model to Approximate Costs

ACCIDENTS CONSTRUCTION

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Analysis Process

• Mathematical Model to Approximate Cost

1 2

3

18

20

13

45

7

14

915

8

12

11

16 1710

6

19

24

232221

6A

1 2

3

18

20

13

45

7

14

915

8

12

11

16 1710

6

19

24

232221

6A

16

17

18

19

2021

22

23

24

2926

27

28

25 16

17

18

19

2021

22

23

24

2926

27

28

25

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Analysis Process

• Mathematical Model to Approximate Cost– Given

• Disconnect at node 16 during rush hour• Estimated 7.87 deaths and 19.68 injuries• Roughly 100 linear feet of highway demolished

$10,078,833

Cost per death: $1,120,000Cost per accident: $45,500Cost per foot: $3,686

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Research Significance

• Contribution: This dissertation provides officials a decision-making methodology and tool for resource allocation and risk mitigation– Metrics that measure the performance of the network

given disconnects occurring– Ranking of K Links affecting the network the most

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

System

System 412.2 268.0 479.6 383.8 402.5

Link a Link b Link c Link d Link e

DefinedLinks Link a Link b Link c Link d Link eLink 1 17.2 25.1 35.0 72.0 19.1Link 2 74.0 36.3 93.4 19.8 15.6Link 3 22.2 17.4 28.8 0.5 97.4Link 4 37.1 74.2 32.0 29.7 28.0Link 5 90.7 9.3 95.5 98.1 60.7Link 6 28.9 32.9 82.7 61.7 54.8Link 7 75.1 23.1 1.2 14.9 13.2Link 8 43.1 33.8 64.5 18.4 60.3Link 9 23.9 16.0 46.4 68.9 53.4System 412.2 268.0 479.6 383.8 402.5

Links in Network

Example of Model: Performance for a General Metric

OUTPUTS

Sum of Performance

, …,

Research Significance

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

(2, 11) (1, 11) (2, 12) (3, 14) (1, 12) (4, 7) (5, 6) (3, 8) (4, 8) (2, 5) (3, 8) (1, 2) (3, 5) (2, 4) (4, 5) (5, 8)

Example of Model

Links

Pe

rfo

rman

ce

Worst

Best

OUTPUTS

0 is threshold

K Links = {2,11}, …, {1,12}affecting the TransportationCI the most

Research Significance

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Research Significance

• Decision Making Methodology and Tool

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Resource Allocation

• Efficiently allocate extra resources– Fire– Police– Surveillance

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Risk Mitigation

• Heighten Awareness

• Develop Emergency and Contingency Plans

• Increase Surveillance

• Response Faster

• Enhance Efficiency Coverage

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Conclusion

• Proposed a Methodology using a Mathematical Model to Determine Impact of K Links Disconnects have on the Defined Links of a Network for risk mitigation and resource allocation

• Research Significance– Society: A Methodology and Tool for Officials to use in

the Decision Making Process– Engineering: Systems Engineering Approach for

Solving Complex Systems

Systems Engineering Program

Jerrell Stracener

Director and Scholar in Residence

http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

School of Engineering Overview

Academic Departments

• Computer Science and Engineering

• Electrical Engineering

• Engineering Management, Information and Systems (EMIS)

• Environmental and Civil Engineering

• Mechanical Engineering

Department of EMISSMU School of Engineering

Leadership in Engineering

http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Program Overview

Systems Engineering

Program

*=planned

Academic Programs

Training Research

Center for Engineering Systems*

Department of EMISSMU School of Engineering

Leadership in Engineering

http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

International Council on Systems Engineering

(INCOSE)

Raytheon RMS Partnership

SEP Partnerships

Lockheed Martin

Steve Kress, Lockheed Martin Missiles & Fire Control

Randy Moore,Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company

Defense Acquisition University (DAU)

Russell Vacante DAU Headquarters

Brent Wells, SAS

Randy Case, NCS

Kent Pride, IIS

Gunter Daley UGS

Jerrell Stracener, SMU SEP

NDIA Systems Engineering Division

Bob Rassa Raytheon, SAS

Russell Vacante DAU Headquarters

Department of EMISSMU School of Engineering

Leadership in Engineering

http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

Planned Research Focus

• U.S. Critical Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis utilizing Systems Engineering principles and methods (U.S. Navy SPAWAR CIPC Contract: April 2004)

• Systems Reliability Modeling & Analysis

• Defense System of Systems Modeling & Analysis utilizing Systems Engineering & Analysis principles and techniques

• Time to Failure Prediction Methodology based on based Prognostics and Health Management (PHM)

Department of EMISSMU School of Engineering

Leadership in Engineering

http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/

© Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005

QUESTIONS