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Trends in Agricultural Trade. Peter S Liapis Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD. Joint ICTSD-FAO expert meeting Geneva Switzerland, March 25-26 2010. Agricultural Exports (1995-2008). Includes Intra EU. Excludes Intra EU. Total Merchandise Export (1995-2008). Includes Intra EU. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Trade & Agriculture Directorate 1
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Trends in Agricultural TradeTrends in Agricultural Trade
Peter S LiapisTrade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD
Joint ICTSD-FAO expert meeting Geneva Switzerland, March 25-26 2010
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 2
Agricultural Exports (1995-2008)Agricultural Exports (1995-2008)
Includes Intra EU
Excludes Intra EU
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 3
Total Merchandise Export Total Merchandise Export (1995-2008)(1995-2008)
Includes Intra EU
Excludes Intra EU
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 4
Agriculture share of total merchandise Agriculture share of total merchandise tradetrade
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 5
Agricultural exports by Income GroupAgricultural exports by Income Group
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 6
Share of Agricultural Exports by Income Share of Agricultural Exports by Income GroupGroup
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 7
Agricultural trade is increasingly South-Agricultural trade is increasingly South-SouthSouth
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 8
Share of North-North trade is diminishing Share of North-North trade is diminishing
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 9
What Agricultural Products are Being Exported?
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 10
ShareShare of Agricultural Exports by Typeof Agricultural Exports by Type
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 11
Income Level and Share of Income Level and Share of Agricultural Exports Agricultural Exports
46.6 51.0
22.6 19.66.8 7.4
23.9 22.0
60.6 59.2
20.4 21.1 13.3 14.55.7 5.2
29.7 36.3 34.1 28.415.1 13.0 21.1 22.2
25.3 30.1 28.1 30.117.6 17.3
29.0 22.5
6.4 11.3 15.3 16.4 10.1 16.1
68.356.2
High income OECD
High incomeNon OECD
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Low income
95-97 06-08
Process products Semi-Process products Horticultural products Bulk products
95-97 06-08 95-97 06-08 95-97 06-08
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 12
Income Level and Share of Income Level and Share of Agricultural Imports Agricultural Imports
36.944.7
24.7 21.914.8 17.4
23.616.0
50.9 52.3
22.1 19.310.3
18.316.710.1
44.7 45.9
22.9 22.47.3
21.725.210.0
28.1 27.9 33.4 31.2
3.9
35.434.6
5.5
36.2 33.8 31.7 29.0
2.6
32.729.6
4.4
Process products Semi-Process products Horticultural products Bulk products
95-97 06-08 95-97 06-08 95-97 06-08 95-97 06-08
High income OECD
High incomeNon OECD
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Low income
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 13
Top Agricultural Exporters Top Agricultural Exporters
19951995 20082008
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 14
Top Agricultural Importers Top Agricultural Importers
2008200819951995
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 15
Agricultural Imports share of GDPAgricultural Imports share of GDP
Average 1995-97Average 1995-97 Average 2006-08Average 2006-08
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 16
Key macroeconomic assumptionsKey macroeconomic assumptions
• 2009 global economic recession
• 2010 global economic recovery
• 2% annual inflation in OECD; higher in BRICs
• stronger US dollar
• stable policy regime
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 17
• Agriculture more resilient to global economic crisis
• Real prices to remain at or above 1997-2006 levels
• Production increases in the 10 to 40% range
• Developing countries driving demand and export growth
• Expansion of biofuels – largely driven by mandates
Main outlook messagesMain outlook messages
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 18
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Wheat Coarse grains
Rice Oilseed Veget. Oil
Raw sugar
Beef (pacific)
Pigmeat (pacific)
Butter SMP Crude oil
Average 2007-08 Average 2009-18
Real prices at or above historical levelsReal prices at or above historical levels
% change relative to 1997-2006 average
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 19
0
10
20
30
40
50
Wh
ea
t
Co
ars
e g
rain
s
Ric
e
Oils
ee
ds
Oilm
ea
ls
Ve
ge
t. O
ils
Su
ga
r
Be
ef
Pig
me
at
po
ult
ry
Bu
tte
r
Ch
ee
se
WM
P
SM
P
%
Steady growth of global productionSteady growth of global productionProduction Growth from 2006-08 average to 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
Wh
ea
t
Co
ars
e g
rain
s
Ric
e
Oils
ee
ds
Oilm
ea
ls
Ve
ge
t. O
ils
Su
ga
r
Be
ef
Pig
me
at
po
ult
ry
Bu
tte
r
Ch
ee
se
WM
P
SM
P
%
Growth from 2008 to 2018Growth realised until 2008
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 20
Output growth from 2004-08 to 2018Output growth from 2004-08 to 2018
Output Growth is largest in non-OECD area
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 21
Demand growth from 2004-08 to 2018Demand growth from 2004-08 to 2018Demand growth is largest in non-OECD area
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 22
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006-08
2018 2006-08
2018 2006-08
2018 2006-08
2018
Butter Cheese SMP WMP
mill
ion
ton
nes
OECD non-OECD
Outlook for dairy products consumption Outlook for dairy products consumption
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 23
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Wheat Coarse grains
Oilseeds Sugar Pigmeat Poultry SMP
%
OECD Non-OECD World
ExportExport growth in developing countries growth in developing countries
Export growth from 2006-08 average to 2018
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 25
Food remains the main use for wheat …Food remains the main use for wheat …
+ 34 Mt
0 100 200 300 400 500
2006-08
2018
2006-08
2018
Million tonnes
Food useFeed useBiofuelsOther
Non
-O
ECD
Non
-O
ECD
OEC
D
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2006-08
2018
Wor
ld
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 27
……while feed and fuel push coarse grain demand upwhile feed and fuel push coarse grain demand up
+ 50 Mt
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
2006-08
2018
2006-08
2018
Million tonnes
Food useFeed useBiofuelsOther
Non
-O
ECD
Non
-O
ECD
OEC
D
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
2006-08
2018
Wor
ld
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 29
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2006-08
2018
2006-08
2018
2006-08
2018
Million tonnes
non-biofuel use
biofuel useIndo
nesi
aU
SAEU
+ 90 Mt
Biodiesel increasingly important Biodiesel increasingly important demand driver for vegetable oildemand driver for vegetable oil
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 30
Summing Up Future ProspectsSumming Up Future Prospects …
• Global demand has been strong, with
… higher growth outside the OECD area, and
… for higher value food and non-food products.• Increased price volatility is expected. • The impact of the economic crisis is unclear,
… as are future policy directions.
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 31
Rely on objective information & analysis
Provide humanitarian aid and short-term support to increase output in developing countries
Keep import and export markets open; conclude ambitious DDA agreement
Review/reform biofuel support policies
Monitor/address balance of payments situation
Policy responses to Food Security ConcernsPolicy responses to Food Security Concerns
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 32
Improve the purchasing power of the poor in developing countries – economy wide growth is needed to contribute to poverty reduction
Improve the productivity of global agriculture, particularly in developing countries - education, infrastructure, research and development, technology transfer and innovation are essential
Medium & long term policy responses…Medium & long term policy responses…
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Short term measures are vital to address food security today, but medium & long term actions are also needed
More open markets are necessary, but insufficient
An increased, long term, sustained commitment to development, both within and outside agriculture, is essential
ConclusionConclusion
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• The fundamental factor is – supply response– Price transmission to local markets
– Technological progress
– Need to address climate change/water availability/sustainability
• Food affordability (poverty reduction) is the key food security issue
ConclusionConclusion
Trade & Agriculture Directorate 35
Thank You
Trade and Agriculture DirectorateTrade and Agriculture Directorate
www.oecd.org/agriculturewww.oecd.org/agriculture
Pete.liapis@oecd.org
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