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Sustainable AviationDr. Michael W. Tretheway
InterVISTAS Consulting Inc.
Canadian Airline Investment 2007 8 June 2007
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The Emerging Importance of GHGE
"Making selfish choices such as flying on holiday or buying a large car are a symptom of sin.”– "Sin is not just a restricted list of moral mistakes. It is
living a life turned in on itself where people ignore the consequences of their actions."
» Richard ChartresBishop of London
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Impacts
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Aviation Share
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Historic EU GHG Emissions
EU GHGE grew by 87% (1990 - 2004)
Emissions from other sectors declined.
Source: Commission of the European Communities, Summary of the Impact Assessment: Inclusion of Aviation in the EU Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), December 2006.
Development of EU-25 international aviation GHG emissions
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Measuring GHGE of Aviation
Various figures exist, ranging from 1.5% to 8%CO2 is not the only GHGNOX is a particular problem for aviation– higher engine temperature improves efficiency– but at a penalty in terms of higher NOX– NOX counts at 310 times CO2
Aviation has a higher ‘radiation forcing’than CO2 alone would suggest
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Aviation Made Major Improvements
Aircraft today are 70% more efficient than original jetsFuel economy better than family car– AirNZ: 3.5 litres per 100km (pax kilometres)
Aviation: – 8% of world economy– 2% of emissions
787 / A350 will improve 20%– 3.0 litres/ 100 RPK
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But Some Don’t Buy the Good News
The comparison to 3.5 litres assumes car has one occupant
Aviation based travel is longer distance
CE-Delft found, that after adjustments– long haul air travel uses 50% more fuel than family car– short haul air 300% worse than car
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Europe Will Drive the GHGE Agenda
The Challenge– Aviation is reducing emissions per passenger-
kilometre at 2% per year, and this may increase to 3%• new technology in engines and airframes• increased load factors• less use of hubs• more direct flight paths
– But aviation is growing at 5% per year– Thus the total GHGEs of aviation will increase,
even with major reductions in emissions per pax
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European Emissions Trading System
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Europe Will Drive the GHGE Agenda
The European Commission has a draft regulation which will impose carbon limits on aviation– Aviation was excluded from Kyoto– The EC draft is less onerous to the industry
than if Kyoto applied to the aviation– European carriers are not debating whether
GHGE limits will apply to aviation– The only issue is when and how
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Inclusion of Aviation in the European Emissions Trading System
December 2006 proposal adopted – to include carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from civil
aviation into the EU Emissions Trading SchemeIntroduction in two phases:– Phase I (2011) – all intra-EU flights– Phase II (2012) – all international flights to/from EU
airports
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Inclusion of Aviation in the ETS
An Impact Assessment of the Emissions Trading System concluded that:– Costs for airlines will likely increase– The impact on profitability is expected to be marginal
• as costs are expected to be passed on to consumers
– Ticket prices are not expected to rise significantly, even in costs are passed on
• €2 to €9 return intra-EU • €8 to €40 return London-NY
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Inclusion of Aviation in the ETS
An Impact Assessment of the Emissions Trading System concluded that:– The study expects higher prices to only have a small
effect on traffic levels• paradoxical, as goal of many is to reduce travel• this outcome is unlikely
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Inclusion of Aviation in the ETS
Total number of allowances to be based on average emissions level for 2004-2006Individual airlines to receive tradable CO2 allowances per year based on historic traffic share:– Able to purchase extra allowances
if emissions increase– Able to sell surplus allowances if emissions decrease
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Offsets vs Reductions
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Offsets versus Reductions
The challenge:– Even with excellent reduction of aviation GHGE/pax– Aviation GHGE will grow due to 5% annual growth
EC is proposing that aviation purchase carbon offsets to compensate for the gap
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Offsets versus Reductions
But many feel that offsets are not a solution Research by Joe Kelly (InterVISTAS) and others, indicate that travellers are willing to purchase offsets– to many, travel is a right and is highly desirable– “I will offset my travel impact by reductions elsewhere
in my lifestyle”
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Behavioural Assessment of Carbon Offsets
“Destination Carbon Offsetting: A Behavioural Assessment”– Dr. Joe Kelly, Peter Williams, Wolfgang Haider
Assessed willingness of tourism travellers to participate in tourist funded carbon offsetting program– Site: Whistler BC resort
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Key Results
45% would participate
Willingness to pay– local visitor: $9– regional (800km) $20– transcon $17– overseas $10
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Key Results
Participation more likely for– larger party sizes– overnight visitor (vs day trip)– higher education– those motivated to travel for social, cultural or
environmental purposesLess likely for luxury seeking tourists
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Key Results
Reasons for non-participation– 39%: costs too high– 36%: concerned that funds would not be used
effectively– 23%: offset projects might not be effective– 6%: offsets not needed– 2%: payment should be mandatory for all,
not voluntary
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Some Key Lessons
High willingness to volunteer to purchase offsetmust address scepticism on – use of funds– effectiveness of projects
very limited awareness of opportunities to purchase carbon offsets
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Offset Examples
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Click here to book WestJet,
and receive full carbon
offset
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Opportunities to Reduce Emissions
Free flight– expected to reduce GHG in Europe by 12%
Eliminate noise abatementPoint to point service– potential to reduce GHG by 25%– direct services from secondary markets such as YWG
are part of the green solutionNew aircraft– Next generation (737 replacement)
may offer even greater improvement
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Opportunities to Reduce Emissions
Increased load factors?– can be get beyond 80%?
Reduced non-revenue Flights?Add on technology (5-8%?)– e.g., winglets
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Concluding Comments
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Economics
Carbon offsets will raise price of travelTravel has high elasticityThus a disproportionately high impactTourism and other travel dependent sectors will experience large negative impacts
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Combine technology, offsets, economics
Technology may cover 2-3% of growth– perhaps higher for next generation aircraft
Offsets are appropriate solutionVoluntary offsets will mitigate negative economic impacts– most price sensitive will not volunteer
Voluntary offsets by modest number of travellers can fully close the gap
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The Next Generation Aircraft
737/A320 replacement– likely in 2013-2020 period– largest portion of global fleet– likely a major step beyond newest technology
• Each 797/A390 will carry 7.5 million pax over its life
– Saving half of a $10 emission charge:• $38 million life cycle savings per aircraft• $13 billion for a fleet of 350 aircraft
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The Next Generation Aircraft
737: 6,000 orderedA320: 5,000 orderedA design that reduces emissions by half (from present levels) would have a $400 billion life cycle advantage to the manufacturerWe should not underestimate the ability of the industry to rise to the challenge
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Thank You
www.InterVISTAS.com
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