Tropical Timber Trends - UNECE · • Agathis-araucaria-podocarps (PNG, Fiji Islands, Indonesia,...

INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION

Tropical Timber TrendsThe Role of Tropical Softwoods

PRESENTED BY: Frances Maplesden

Tropical timber supply

Tropical timber production and trade

•Primary and SPWPs

•Major trends and issues

Tropical softwoods

•Relative importance in tropical trade

•Future trends

Conclusions

CONTENT

TROPICAL TIMBER SUPPLY

Forest Cover, ITTO Producers, 1980-2005.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1980 1990 2000 2005

Fore

st a

rea/

tota

l are

a (%

)

All producers Latin America Asia Africa

Tropical Forest Plantations

REGION AREA OF PRODUCTIVE

FOREST PLANTATIONS(1)

(000 hectares)

ROUNDWOOD PRODUCTION FROM

PLANTATIONS, 2004(2)

(000 m3)

PLANTATION SHARE OF

ROUNDWOOD PRODUCTION(2)

(%)

Asia-Pacific 26 640 66 800 46.1

Africa 3 528 3 580 8.0

Latin America & Caribbean

8 036 84 900 63.4

TOTAL 36 136 155 280 47.9

(1) Source: FAO 2005 adapted by STCP (2) Source: STCP fieldwork

Supply - Policy Issues

•Deforestation and forest degradation of natural forests

•Legality: wood supply, industry and trade

•Climate change

•International, government and consumer responses

•CITES listings

•Responsible purchasing - Government procurement policies; EU TTAP

•CSR policies

•EU FLEGT measures

•Certification and SFM

Certified Forest as a Percentage of Total Forest Area by Region, 2005-2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% o

f tot

al fo

rest

are

a ce

rtifi

ed

North America

EU/EFTAOceania

EECCAAfric

a

Latin AmericaAsia

2005 2006

Source: UNECE 2006

TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTION AND TRADE

Tropical Log Production, Major Countries 2003-2006

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000Vo

lum

e 10

00m

3

Brazil Malaysia India Indonesia Nigeria

2003

2004

2005

2006

Tropical Log Exports, Major Countries 1996-2006

010002000300040005000600070008000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Volu

me

1000

m3

Malaysia PNG Gabon Myanmar Congo, Republic of

Tropical Log Imports, Major Countries 1996-2006

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Volu

me

1000

m3

China India JapanTaiwan P.O.C. Thailand Total EU

Tropical Log Price Trends Jan 2004- Sep 2007

020406080

100120140160180200

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Pric

e in

dex

(Jan

199

7=10

0)

Meranti SQ & Up Keruing SQ & UpAfrican Mahogany L-MC Obeche L-MCSapele L-MC Iroko L-MC

Source: ITTO Market Intelligence Service

Tropical Sawntimber Production, Major Countries 2003-2006

02000400060008000

10000120001400016000

Volu

me

1000

m3

Brazil Malaysia India Indonesia Thailand

2003

2004

2005

2006

Tropical Sawnwood Exports, Major Countries1996-2006

0500

1000150020002500300035004000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Volu

me

1000

m3

Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Brazil Cameroon

Tropical Sawnwood Price Trends, Jan 2004 - Sep 2007

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jan-0

4

Jan-0

5

Jan-0

6

Jan-0

7

Pric

e in

dex

(Jan

199

7=10

0)

Meranti Jatoba/Courbaril Sapele Irokokhaya

Source: ITTO Market Intelligence Service

ITTO Consumer Country Imports of Primary and Secondary Products, 1991-2006

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Valu

e (U

S$ b

illio

n)

Primary Secondary

China Exports of SPWPs, 2000-2006

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Valu

e (U

S$ m

illio

n)Wood furnitureBuilder's WoodworkMouldingsOther SPWPs

Source: COMTRADE

Imports of Wood Furniture and Parts from ITTO Producers, by Major Importers, 2005

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

EU TotalJapan

USA

Netherlands UKFrance

Valu

e U

S$ m

illio

n

Imports of SPWPs from ITTO Producers, by Major Importers, 2005

USAJapan

UK

Germany

France

Belgium

Canada

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700Va

lue

US$

mill

ion Builders woodwork

Other SPWP

Mouldings

Trade Issues

•US economic downturn; Japan declining market; rapidly growing Chinese and Indian economies

•Market access: public procurement, certification

•China remains a formidable competitor for SPWPs

•Tropical producer SPWP trade well below potential

•Statistical discrepancies

TROPICAL SOFTWOODS

Tropical Coniferous Natural Forest Area

REGION FOREST AREA(million ha)

Tropical Asia-Pacific 1.3

Mexico 16.5

Other Central America & Caribbean

4.6

South America 0.3

Tropical Africa 0.5

TOTAL 23.2

Source: ITTO estimate 2002

Natural forests

• Pinus spp (Mexico - 55 endemic species, Honduras, Guatemala, Caribbean countries)

• Agathis-araucaria-podocarps (PNG, Fiji Islands, Indonesia, Myanmar, Malaysia, Southern Indo-China, Philippines)

Plantations

• Brazilian pine plantations predominantly in temperate regions.

• Pinus taeda, Pinus elliotii (Brazil)

• Pinus caribaea (Fiji Islands, Malaysia)

• Pinus merkusii (Indonesia) Araucaria (PNG)

Major Commercial Tropical Softwood Species, Location

Log Production, ITTO Producers, 2006

0102030405060708090

100

Africa Asia-Pacific Latin America&Carribean

Prod

uctio

n (m

illio

n m

3)

Coniferous Non-coniferous

Sawn Production, ITTO Producers, 2006

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Africa Asia-Pacific LatinAmerica/Caribbean

Prod

uctio

n (1

000

m3)

Coniferous Non-coniferous

Plywood Production, ITTO Producers, 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Africa Asia-Pacific LatinAmerica/Caribbean

Prod

uctio

n (1

000

m3)

Coniferous Non-coniferous

• Forest coverage declining in ITTO producer countries; pressure will continue to restrict supply from natural forests; role of plantations in supply will increase.

• China’s role in tropical trade is both as main market for primary products and formidable competitor in SPWP markets. Demographic changes will impact on future tropical trade. Public concerns about legality, climate change and deforestation will continue to intensify.

• Tropical product prices stable or rising reflecting greater demand, disruptions in log supply, export restrictions.

• Softwood exports from tropical countries insignificant in global and EU trade. Softwood plantations will expand although limited impact on EU markets expected.

CONCLUSIONS

www.itto.or.jp maplesden@itto.or.jp