Unit II: Fundamentals of Population. What is Population Geography? Demography: The statistics...

Unit II: Fundamentals of

Population

What is Population Geography?

• Demography:  The statistics relating to population geography

• Population Geography:  How people live, how they interact with one another, how they use the land, what pressure on resources exist, and what the future may bring; answers questions of where? And why there?

Satellite Monitoring of Artificial LightMake note of the “Developed World”

Key Issues in Population Geography

What are the Issues?

1. Population growth (esp. in developing world)

2. Food supply

3. Health

4. Status of women

5. Migration

Elements of Population Geography

Population and space

1. Humanity has always been unevenly distributed over the land

2. Contrasts between crowded cities and empty reaches have intensified during the 20th c.

3. In technologically advanced countries, people tend to cluster in cities and towns

Population Distribution & Density

1. Distribution of population describes the locations on Earth's surface where individuals or groups live

2. Dot maps efficiently show distribution of populations

World Population Distribution Dot Map

Arithmetic Density

• Arithmetic Density –divide the area of a country by the total population; a numerical average

a)Not accurate because it does not include clustering within a country

b)Does not represent empty areas

Arithmetic Density

Physiological Density

• Physiologic density - number of people per unit of agriculturally productive land

a)More useful than arithmetic density

b)Gives the real situation in terms of cultivable land and the growing pressure on it

c) Excludes agriculturally non-productive land

Physiological Density

• Reflects the “burden of dependency” - the proportion of persons under 15 and over 65 who are economically dependent on working members aged 15 to 64

Physiological Density

Physiologic Population Density

Luxor, Egypt

Egypt’s arable lands are along the Nile River Valley.

Moving away from the river a few blocks, the land becomes sandy and wind-sculpted.

Global and National Patterns

1. Contains more than a 1/4 of the world's population

2. China alone has a pop. of nearly 1.6 billion

3. Most people live along coastlines, river basins and lowlands

4. Dominant activity is farming

East Asia

Japan

a) Very limited farmlands

b) High population density

c) Prosperous and well-fed people because of:

(1) High technological prowess

(2) Industrial capacity

(3) Money-producing exports

South Asia

1. Ganges River in India has one of the great concentrations of people on Earth

2. Bangladesha) More than 120 million people in area size of

Iowa

b) Nearly all people are farmers

3. Indiaa) Growing faster than china (1.5 Billion people)

Europe

1. Contains about 700 million people

2. Population distribution as compared to Asia

a) Large populations found in countries near coal fields

b) Dense populations in mountainous, rugged countries

c) More people live in cities

d) Rural countryside more open and not as populated

North America

1. Not as densely populated as Europe and Asia, more spread out

2. Rural areas less populated

3. Like Europe, population concentrated in major cities

Other regions

1. South America and Australia seem to have space remaining for pop. Growth and distribution

2. Pockets of Africa are very dense while other parts are sparsely populated due to physical barriers

a) Nile Valley and Delta has more than 66 million inhabitants

b) Areas around deserts not as populated

Some Generalizations

• 90% of the world’s population is above the equator, 66% in the mid-latitudes (includes US and Europe)

• 50% of the population lives on 5% of the available land.

• 66% of the world’s populations live within 300 miles of the ocean.

Population

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A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death —The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future

Billions

World Pop. was steady until the agricultural/scientific revolutions – then it exploded

World Population Growth Through History

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Population Growth--the Problem

• Food Supply • Status of Women • Health Issues--not enough

nutrients in food, lack of medical help

• Environmental Issues--deforestation, erosion, technology/chemicals

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Global Population Growth Is Driven by Developing Countries.

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

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Sparks to Population Growth

• Agricultural Revolution • Industrial Revolution • Urbanization and Sanitation • Advances in Medicine • Conquest and Colonization of New

Lands • Developing Countries

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Checks on Population Growth

• Epidemics and Plagues --Bubonic Plague- 1348-1350, 1/4 of the population killed, England loses 4 million people

• Famines –Potato Famine in Ireland–India and China

• Wars • Natural Decrease

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Demographic Equations

Growth Rate (%) = Birth Rate – Death Rate +/– Migration

= Rate of Natural Increase (%)

Population Doubling Time (yrs.) =

70 Rate of Natural Increase

PalestinianTerritories

Fertility Rate

1975-1980 7.39

1980-1985 7.00

1985-1990 6.43

1990-1995 6.46

1995-2000 5.99

2000-2005 5.57

2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age.

Africa Fertility Rate

1975-1980 6.60

1980-1985 6.45

1985-1990 6.11

1990-1995 5.67

1995-2000 5.26

2000-2005 4.97

U.K.Total

fertility rate

1975-1980 1.72

1980-1985 1.80

1985-1990 1.81

1990-1995 1.78

1995-2000 1.70

2000-2005 1.66

Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years. This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2.

Infant Mortality Rate – the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.

1.17

1.12

0.94

0.84

1.22

1.24

1.24

1.23

1.23

1.20

Belarus

Bulgaria

Republic of Moldova

Republic of Korea

Slovenia

Slovakia

Czech Republic

Ukraine

China, Hong Kong Special AdministrativeRegion

China, Macao Special Administrative Region

G. Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide

Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include China

H. Diverging Trends in Fertility ReductionAverage number of children per woman

5.75.25.4

6.46.4

8.5

5.3

3.3

6.2

3.1

2.4 2.1

4.3

2.5

Egypt India Indonesia Iran Pakistan Turkey Yemen

1970-1975 2000-2005

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Many developing countries have cut population growth

Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years

49

6772

76

6565

7780 82

75

Africa Asia Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

More DevelopedRegions

World

2000-2005 2045-2050

I. Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region

L.E increase vary with region – greatest gains in the developing nations

Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. U.S. = 76/mi2; NYC=1,000,000/mi2; Australia = 7/mi2

Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land.

World and Country Population Totals

Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface!

Total: 7 billion on planet as of Oct. 20, 2011

Five most populous regions and countries

REGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION

• East Asia 1.9 billion China 1.548 billion• South Asia 1.7 billion India 1.349 billion• Europe 825 million U.S. 330 million• SE Asia 600million Indonesia 310 million• Brazil 246million

Greatest increases are slated for Africa and the Arab world, while Europe and China remain stagnant

D. Projected Population Change, by CountryPercent Population Change, 2005-2050

1.17

1.12

0.94

0.84

1.22

1.24

1.24

1.23

1.23

1.20

Belarus

Bulgaria

Republic of Moldova

Republic of Korea

Slovenia

Slovakia

Czech Republic

Ukraine

China, Hong Kong Special AdministrativeRegion

China, Macao Special Administrative Region

G. Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide

Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include China

Birth Control Programs

• One family/one child policies– Female infanticide– Social compensation fees

• Sterilization• Loss of status• Termination healthcare/food coupons• Free birth control• Increased literacy

Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions

300 100 100 300

300 200 100 0 100 200 300

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Male Female Male Female

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

5-90-4

Age

Pyramids for the LDCs and HDCs are vastly different

K. Age Distribution of the World’s Population

World Death Rates

• Infectious diseases– HIV/AIDS– SARS

• Degenerative diseases– Obesity– Tobacco use

• Epidemiology• Epidemiological transition

Adults and Children Living with AIDS, 2004

Rates of Natural Increase

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Rate of Increase

(%)

Doubling Time (yrs.)

Example (1998)

0.50 140 Ireland

0.60 120 United States

1.00 70 China

2.00 35 Costa Rica

3.50 20 Yemen

Higher rate of increase = shorter doubling time (inverse relationship)

Doubling Time = 70 / Rate of Increase

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2000 yrs. ago – 250 million: doubling time 16 centuries (1650)1650 – 500 million: doubling time 170 yrs. (1820) …2000 – doubling time reduced to 35 yrs. (>6 billion currently)

Doubling TimesThe doubling time is the number of years before a population will be twice as large as it is today.

World = 50U.S. = 34MDC = 543LDC = 40Honduras = 22Belize = 19Denmark = 700Russia = never?

Demographic Transition Model

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The Demographic Transition Model

60

61

1. Stage One Growth

• Pre-Industrial economy – Crude death rate and birth rate fluctuate freely due mainly to famine, but also war and disease

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2. Stage Two Growth

• Early Industrial Economy - Industrialization leads death rates down w/better food access due to agricultural advances, while birth rate level off at a stable rate

63

3. Stage Three Growth• Developed Industrial

Economy - Birth rates plummet along with death rates as overall population climbs.

• Most people survive to old age so no need to replace with babies

64

4. Stage Four Growth

• Developed Economies - The post-industrial economy sees birth and death rates converging as population growth levels off and stabilizes.

• Nations reach replacement fertility – 2.1 children per couple

65

Demographic Transition Theory

4 Stages:

1. High Birth Rate, High Death Rate

2. High Birth Rate, Declining Death Rate

3. Declining Birth Rate, Low Death Rate

4. Low Birth Rate, Low Death Rate

Demographic Transition Model• Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural)

– Crude birth/death rate high– Fragile, but stable, population

• Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine)– Lower death rates– Infant mortality rate falls– Natural increase very high

• Stage three (attitudes change)– Indicative of richer developed countries– Higher standards of living/education– Crude birth rate finally falls

• Stage four – Crude birth/death rates low– Population stable– Populations aging

Problems with the Demographic Transition

Model

• based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization

• many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth

• on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3

Population Shift

Overpopulation• When consumption of

natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources.

(1743 – 1794)

• predicted that innovation, resulting increased wealth, and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family

• believed that society was perfectable

Jean Antoine Condorcet

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Thomas Malthus

• Food Production increases linearly while population increases geometrically— i.e. the world will not have enough food to support itself 

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Malthus cont…

• But wait! Technology Intervenes

• Is Malthus wrong for the future?

– A problem we will never escape--population will outdo technology

Thomas Malthus on Population

Malthus, responding to Condorcet, predicted population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person.

Assumptions• Populations grow

exponentially.• Food supply grows

arithmetically.• Food shortages and chaos

inevitable.

An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 2 3 4

Population

Food

Food Population2 24 48 16

16 256

Population J-Curve

Population and the Environment

I = P x A x T

Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problems:

• Global Warming

• Habitat Loss / Endangered Species

• Resource Depletion

• Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally.

Popula

tion a

nd R

eso

urc

e

Consu

mpti

on

Population Policy:Making National Decisions

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The Population Bomb!

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What is Population a policy?

• The decisions made by a national gov. to alter growth rates through legal and social means

81

Tools for Population goals

• Education & Propaganda

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China’s Propaganda Posters

Do a good job in family planning to promote economic development

Carry out family planning Implement the basic national policy

83

Financial incentives• Parents can be

rewarded or punished through taxes, tuition or housing as in China’s One Child Policy

• Many countries are trying this some to boost their populations, others to decrease it.

84

Women’s Approach

• By empowering LDC women to financial success, cycles of large families can sometimes be broken.

• A common U.N strategy in Africa

85

Family Planning

• Through Public Health Services, counseling, contraception and even abortion can be made available.

• These programs have a mixed record based on cultural values

86

Foreign Aid

• Financial and technical aid are often made available by the U.N or MDCs.

• Problems arise when money or the programs themselves are discontinued

87

Coercion

• Enforced sterilization or abortion are rarely successful and often have the opposite effect.

• India’s enforced sterilization in the 1970s was a disaster